UFC 238 Cejudo vs Moraes Official Bets

I was on fire most of the card and up huge before "The People's Main Event" between Cowboy & Tony Ferguson, but the last three fights were costly with Jessica Eye not lasting to the third round and especially Marlon Moraes, my biggest wager of the card, getting stopped by Henry Cejudo which ate away most of my gains. The no submission event props paid off nicely however, so I ended up with a respectable 4.05 units profit, but nowhere what it should have been.

UFC 238 Results
Risk $6,434.57

Marlon Moraes (-118) vs Henry Cejudo $590.00 for $500.00= -$590.00
Marlon Moraes (-120) vs Henry Cejudo $481.93 for $400.00= -$481.93
Marlon Moraes (-125) vs Henry Cejudo $125.00 for $100.00= -$125.00
Marlon Moraes wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+190) $75.00 for $142.50= -$75.00
Marlon Moraes wins by decision or technical decision $40.00 for $200.00= -$40.00
Marlon Moraes wins by 5 round split/majority decision (+909) $15.00 for $136.35= -$15.00

Valentina Shevchenko/Jessica Eye starts round 3 (-285) $285.00 for $100.00= -$285.00
Valentina Shevchenko/Jessica Eye Over 4½ (-112) $112.00 for $100.00= -$112.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 4 (+975) $15.00 for $146.25= -$15.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins in round 5 (+1450) $15.00 for $217.50= -$15.00
Valentina Shevchenko wins by decision or technical decision (+150) $100.00 for $150.00= -$100.00

Donald Cerrone (+135) vs Tony Ferguson $100.00 for $135.00= -$100.00
Donald Cerrone wins by TKO/KO (+350) $35.00 for $122.50= -$35.00
Donald Cerrone wins in round 2 (+900) $20.00 for $180.00= -$20.00
Donald Cerrone wins in round 3 (+1200) $20.00 for $240.00= -$20.00
Donald Cerrone/Tony Ferguson fight ends in round 3 (+650) $25.00 for $162.50= -$25.00
Live In-Play Donald Cerrone (+150) vs Tony Ferguson $66.66 for $99.99= -$66.99

Petr Yan (-315) vs Jimmie Rivera $315.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Petr Yan wins in round 3 (+1200) $15.00 for $180.00= -$15.00
Live In-Play Petr Yan (-217) vs Jimmie Rivera ~$400.00 for ~$184.33= ~$184.33

Blagoy Ivanov (+150) vs Tai Tuivasa $100.00 for $150.00= $150.00
Blagoy Ivanov (+150) vs Tai Tuivasa $200.00 for $300.00= $300.00
Blagoy Ivanov +3½ points (-145) $145.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Blagoy Ivanov/Tai Tuivasa Over 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Blagoy Ivanov/Tai Tuivasa Over 1½ (-187) $187.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Nina Ansaroff scorecards= no action (+983) Tatiana Suarez $50.00 for $491.50= Cancelled
Tatiana Suarez/Nina Ansaroff Over 1½ (-180) $360.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Tatiana Suarez/Nina Ansaroff Over 1½ (-182) $363.64 for $200.00= $200.00
Tatiana Suarez/Nina Ansaroff Over 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Tatiana Suarez/Nina Ansaroff Over 1½ (-185) $185.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Aljamain Sterling (-135) vs Pedro Munhoz $270.00 for $200.00= $200.00

Alexa Grasso (+100) vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz $200.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Alexa Grasso wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+900) $25.00 for $225.00= -$25.00
Alexa Grasso wins by decision or technical decision (+175) $10.00 for $175.00= $175.00

Calvin Kattar (-140) vs Ricardo Lamas $280.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Calvin Kattar wins by TKO/KO (+331) $50.00 for $165.50= $165.50

Xiaonan Yan (-175) vs Angela Hill $175.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Eddie Wineland (-145) vs Grigory Popov $145.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Eddie Wineland wins by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (+450) $25.00 for $112.50= $112.50

Bevon Lewis (-160) vs Darren Stewart $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
Live In-Play Darren Stewart (-265) vs Bevon Lewis $265.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Joanne Calderwood (+100) vs Katlyn Chookagian $250.00 for $250.00= -$250.00
Joanne Calderwood wins by 3 round decision (+175) $100.00 for $175.00= -$100.00

No fights end in submission (+672) $50.00 for $336.00= $336.00
Fights to end in submission Under 1½ (+158) $40.00 for $63.20= $63.20

Marlon Moraes wins POTN bonus (+150) ~$40.00 for ~$60.00= -~$40.00
Donald Cerrone wins POTN bonus (+294) ~$40.00 for ~$117.60= -~$40.00

Parlay:
Petr Yan (-335) vs Jimmie Rivera + Valentina Shevchenko/Jessica Eye starts round 3 (-222) $230.00 for $203.19= -$230.00
-----
Sub-Total= $301.28
Sub-Total= ~$104.33

Total Profit= $405.61
 
Looking good!

Good luck brother, dont think GSW is coming back from this one

I hedged about 300 on Moraes and considered hedging 200 on golden state to win the series at +500 but it dropped since Kevin Durant practiced so I’m just gonna let it ride
 
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Moraes ML - 7.5u for 6.34u (-115/-120)
Shevchenko UDecision - 1u for 1.75u (+175)
Suarez Submission - 1u for 1.2u (+120)
Suarez Round 3 or Decision - 1u for 1.1u (+120)
Over 1.5 Rounds - 2.5u for 1.25u (-200)
Kattar ML - 3u for 1.94u (-155)
Ivanov ML - 0u for 0.5u
Munhoz ML - 4u for 4.8u (+120)
Sterling ML - 2u for 1.5u (-135)
Calderwood ML - 2u for 1.74u (-115)
Hill ML - 1.5u for 2.4u (+155/+175)
Stewart NSC - 0.91u for 1.01u (+110)
Wineland ML - 1.5u for 1.13u (-130/-135)
Suarez + Sheva + Yan - 2.5u for 1.51u
Suarez + Yan - 2.59 for 1.07u
Suarez + Sheva + Ante(W) - 1.25u for 0.57u


-6.43u

 
1.5u Cerrone +225 -1.5u
0.2u Cerrone SUB +1000 -0.2u

0.75u Rivera +275 -0.75u

0.5u Suarez DEC +201 +1.01u

2u Munhoz NSC -128 0u

2u Lamas +148 -2u

0.4u RR (3s,4s,5) Lamas DEC +315/Munhoz SUB +475/Suarez DEC +208/Rivera +270/Ferguson DEC +335 -0.4u

0.275u RR (2s,3s,4) Rivera ITD +900/Cerrone SUB +1000/Shevchenko KO +474/Moraes RD1 +450 -0.275u

Live: 1.5u Cejudo -120 +1.25u

NET: -2.87u

Worst event since mid February for me. Limited the damage a little bit with the live bet on Cejudo after round 2. Really kicking myself for not switching sides to Ferguson, especially after he dropped into the -130 range and I could have gotten a great line on him. Oh well.
 
$360/$300
Tatiana Suarez -600
Jon Jones -550
Max halloway -300

$120/$100.80
Karolina/Grasso over 2.5
Tatiana Suarez
Petr Yan

$20/$106
Petr Yan -345
Donald Cerrone +135
Warriors to win championship -286
Michael Chiesa -300
Jon Jones -670

Free bet
$10/100
X Yan ml
Petr Yan ml
Cejudo by decision
Eye/Shevchenko over 2.5

Free bet
$20/$198
Petr Yan by decision +120
Chagoogian/Calderwood over 2.5
Karolina/Grasso over 2.5
Calvin Kattar -143
Aljamain Sterling -133

+298 with Suarez winning and bringing down a nice parlay with just jones and halloway to go. Also hit a bunch of live bets during the card.
 
A bit late to the party but....

2U- R. Lamas (+125)
1U- Shevchenko/Eye under 4.5rds (+105)
.25U- N. Ansaroff (+550)

Very happy with the second round KO of Eye but putting 2 units on Lamas made it a losing night. I have a full year to cash in or mail in my ticket for Shevchenko/Eye so I will be staying away from the sports books a while since it's clear I'm not as good at this as I had hoped.
 
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