UFC 239 Jones vs Santos Official Bets

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I'm making a fortune on betting Hearthstone, but it's limiting the number of fights I can tape. The season ends next weekend though, so I can switch more fully to MMA again.

3u on Nunes points -5.5 at -185
1.5u on Masvidal at +200
1u on Kianzad at +175 (I half hate this bet, and not only because I didn't get +210 when I saw it, or the +220 she is now)

Added an additional 1u on Nunes points -5.5 at -170. Didn't find a single good spot to live-bet in, unfortunately.

Anywho, I finished +4.2u on the night. For once, I'm fine with the amount I put on both Masvidal (Askren is the most unique match-up in all of MMA) and Nunes (good value, but given that 2 judges saw the Cyborg-Holm shut-out as an inexplicable 48-47, it wasn't quite tempting enough to put a bomb on).

The Kianzad bet? I kind of hated it, as I noted. It wasn't bad, but neither was it good. The fight actually went very close to what I predicted in round 1, with Avila defending better in the clinch than I expected. However, in round 2, Kianzad did nothing with her takedown, and her defense completely evaporated and she mentally wilted, as she tends to do.

Anywho, should be able to focus solely on MMA betting next weekend and tape more than the 4 fights (Markos vs. Gadelha was the 4th one, where I strongly considered hitting Gadelha at -190, but no regrets there) I did for UFC 239.

 

[Greco_Wiz]

Diego $30 to win $93
Masvidal by dec $20 to win $150
Allen by dec. $50 to win $38
Jones by dec. $15 to win $50
Jones / Santos starts rd 2 $100 to win $35

Not bad. Ended up + $73.

I’m still convinced without the flying knee Masvidal had a good chance of winning a decision.

 

[Sadistics]

Santos +550 $100

Holm +272 $250
Holm/Nunes O2 -154 $308
Holm/Nunes GTD +165 $140
Nunes DEC +280 $100

Masvidal +197 $300
Masvidal ITD +296 $50

Rockhold/Blachowicz DNGTD -175 $280

Allen DEC -121 $350

Gadelha -201 $400
Gadelha DEC -118 $200

Yadong -133 $700

Naurdiev -335 $3050


Kinda wish I passed on the whole card. I especially hate the Holm bet.

-$632, little under a unit down. Switched to damage control after the awful bet on Naurdiev crashed and burned. I severely overestimated his grappling, being able to bridge and sweep as Prazeres was advancing position, but not when he was secured. I guess being a 5x Austrian wrestling champ doesn't count for much.

Scored the main event for Santos, but between the body language and champ bias I figured Jones would get it.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

+11.15u

Parlay train came through super easily. All first round finishes.

Rockhold & Naurdiev fucked up big time though.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

I fucking hate that fraud Lipski btw. She destroyed 3 bets lol.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

Won 4 dollars tonight....4 fucking dollars

 

[ApplesVild]

Look a loss because Santos got conned out of his clear victory, would be up a ton he he got the nod

 

[nebulousned]

$30 on Nunes to return $37.2
$50 on a Nunes Jones Parlay to return $71.5
$20 on Rochold to return $29
$5 parlay on Jones, Nunes, Rockhold and Chiesa to return $13.75

edit:

have added $5 on Askren by decision to return 10. But honestly would be happier with a savage knockout by Jordge

risked $110, got back $108.7 so i lost $1.3

such a sick card though.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Jones KO - 2u for 3.7u (+185)
Under 2.5 Rounds - 2u for 1.57u (-127)
Nunes Unan. Decision - 1u for 3.5u (+350)
Nunes-Holm FGTD - 2u for 2.6u (+130)
Masvidal ML - 2.5u for 4.45u (+175/+180)
Masvidal NSC - 2.5u for 1.5u (-167)
Melendez ML - 1.5u for 4.8u (+320)
Markos ML - 0u for 1.5u
Shahbazyan Submission - 0.5u for 3.5u (+700)
Chiesa Submission - 0.75u for 2.63u (+350)
FDNGTD - 2.5u for 1.52u (-165)
Song ML - 3u for 1.46u (-205)
Naurdiev ML - 2u for 0.4u (-500)
Kianzad ML - 1.5u for 2.7u (+180)
ML: Naurdiev + Shahbazyan - 2.5u for 1.07u
ML: Jones + Nunes + Rockhold - 2u for 2.15u
ML: Jones + Naurdiev + Rockhold - 2u for 1.91u
ML: Jones + Chiesa - 6.25u for 3.44u
NSC: (Jones) + Shahbazyan + Masvidal - 2.5u for 1.85u

-5.55

Was just able to watch the event. With shameful transparency, I had a few other plays that bring the night to a ~15u loss in total. The compulsion to play every fight in some way isn't working. Gotta figure that out.
Knew Jones would win. Had plays and won nothing on him.
Knew Nunes would win. Had plays and won nothing on her.
Knew Chiesa would win. Had plays and won nothing on him.
Figured Claudia probably wins but, like I did with Pinchel and Benavidez, only used her to buyout for a 0u freeroll.

I forced this card as hard as Masvidal forced his knee up Askren's nose. That was so beautiful it almost makes this all feel worth it.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Men i love Blachowicz and Masvidal, beautiful way to finish a fight. Only regrets not having the balls to go really heavy when I'm confident.

 

[AmericanBeauty]

50 Naurdiev by decision +100
100 Perez +175
30 Masvidal +187
25 Rockhold by Points +333

-88,9

 

[Austisthunder]

2U Luke Rockhold -150

7U parlay to win ~ 10U

Chiesa/Avila / Austrian Wonderboi

-9 U

 

[LiquidNuke]

Won 4 dollars tonight....4 fucking dollars

I won no dollars.

 

[Jordan3399]

-2u decent night overall though

Edit: -1.3u actually missed the stab I had on Edmen sub.

 

[Bastaille]

Rockhold 1k to win 580$

Naurdiev 2K to win 500$

Probably adding 1 or 2k on rockhold. Shitty card for betting.

-3k ,won about 2k hedging with jan ko and masvidal ml and masvidal itd. So im down 1k. Another tough weekend for me. Hope you guys did good. I like next week card.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Santos +550 0.5u
Holm/Nunes DNGTD -185 2.25u
Rockhold -165 3.3u
Nunes+Shahbazyan+Naurdiev +100 1.5u
Askren DEC -125 1.25u
Markos +195 0.5u
Diego +250 0.5u
Melendez +325 0.6
Avila ITD +185 0.5u
Masvidal NSC -175 4.4u
Markos DEC +250 0.25u
Melendez ITD +720 0.25u
Holm DEC +535 0.3u
Perez +185 0.5u
Askren SUB + Holm DEC +3400 0.25u
Kianzad +3.5 -130 1.3u
Perez +3.5 -130 1.3u
Markos +3.5 -165 2.1u
Askren -3.5 +150 0.6
Bones R2 +375 0.5u
Bones R3 +550 0.3u

Brutally assfucked last night. Lost several grand on both 238 and 239. Prob taking a break in light of how fucking awful I’ve been at this lately. Good luck bros

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

-2u decent night overall though

That's fascinating. Your listed bets add up to about -6.3u overall.

Where oh where did you make +4.3u worth of live-bets on a card with vanishingly few opportunities to live-bet at all?

 

[Jordan3399]

That's fascinating. Your listed bets add up to about -6.3u overall.

Where oh where did you make +4.3u worth of live-bets on a card with vanishingly few opportunities to live-bet at all?

Not that I have to justify anything to you but Chance and Allen were easy livebets when you could clearly see there opponents struggling very hard early. Also made a unit hitting Vera sub live after R1.

Very nice of you to question that 4.3u when you conveniently ignored my post the other day clearly showing how utterly full of shit you are regarding your MMA betting success. Still find it laughable af you are questioning my livebets when thats the only reason you aren't massively down this year. Your claiming massive successes saying you were up 48u when your own posts show you only made 2u. You were also only successful in the first place due to a massively degenerate 25u bet on a Bellator fight.

 

[Sadistics]

That's fascinating. Your listed bets add up to about -6.3u overall.

Where oh where did you make +4.3u worth of live-bets on a card with vanishingly few opportunities to live-bet at all?

Without getting between you two, want to point out that livebetting is a lot different outside of the US. In round livebetting is a game changer, as well as props.

 

[Jedijiujitsu]

had a decent night