UFC 239 - Jones vs Santos

[LeskoJohnson]

I like Melendez as huge underdog, and I like Perez @+200 those lines IMO are way to wide, I like Marshman @+500 if it hits that much. Edmen is the rightfully big favorite, but shouldn't be that wide. This is a good card for picking spots of small sizing capitalizing on the good value of crazy wide lines and just kicking it back n having fun just chilling watching the fights without thousands on the line. Good luck everybody.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

better than Lawler's?

Of course

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

The chalk continues

Not surprised, given O'Malley's constant USADA violations and increasingly more laughable excuses.

 

[Doc R]

View attachment 608959

But seriously? He's not finishing Lawler AND Mas...is he?

Did you see robbie lawler that fight. special supplement program fer sure. he fuckin angle slammed askren. better wrestling than Mas.

I'd say I see it as a 60/40 split that askren gets the finish via choke or unanswered GNP. Overall I'd cap Askren at -400.

So with that I'd cap askren ITD @ +108 and I see +300. That's reflecting approximately 75-80% chance if askren wins its by decision. value on Askren ITD IMO.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Markos +2xx is dumb. Lines will be near evens at fight time.

Markos dec might be juicier.

 

[Masterbettor]

Masvidal has made his way up to +195 on Bovada. These numbers are getting to good to ignore. Gonna put a few on em. Thoughts?

 

[Gugabe]

I was starting to wonder it was just me, and still getting better

Like I'm not running out to bet an old Melendez, but Allen is not particularly good. Almost wondering if there's injury news or something

 

[Gugabe]

Did you see robbie lawler that fight. special supplement program fer sure. he fuckin angle slammed askren. better wrestling than Mas.

I'd say I see it as a 60/40 split that askren gets the finish via choke or unanswered GNP. Overall I'd cap Askren at -400.

So with that I'd cap askren ITD @ +108 and I see +300. That's reflecting approximately 75-80% chance if askren wins its by decision. value on Askren ITD IMO.

I do not understand people buying the Askren meme. Please reconsider everything you just said.

 

[ApplesVild]

Shiiiiit is Giblert a live dog here? Yeah hes old and has a long lay off and has lost his last 4, buuuuut they are loses to top guys and champions. Subbed by Pettis, could happen to anyone. Then he went the distance with Alvarez, Barboza and Stephen's. Light weights are too big for him, FW seems a better fit, but maybe feather weights are too fast for him.

Does Allen throw many leg kicks? Hows his take down defence? Hows he look on the mat?

If Gilbert looks old and stiff as fuck then yeah hes fucked, but if hes used the time off well and still has some spring in his step he would give Allen a tough fight

 

[ApplesVild]

Actually scrap that, Allen is going to smash him and probably get the finish

 

[ApplesVild]

Jones/Santos to go the distance 4.00?

 

[Gugabe]

Actually scrap that, Allen is going to smash him and probably get the finish

How do you see him finishing? Melendez took a beating off Stephens and Barboza. Allen is neither of those dudes, and Melendez better grappler

 

[ApplesVild]

How do you see him finishing? Melendez took a beating off Stephens and Barboza. Allen is neither of those dudes, and Melendez better grappler

He may not finish but over the rounds he can accumulate damage, pick him apart over the fight from the outside and he likes to finish the round with a big flurry. He has all the athletic edge, the reach advantage the speed, just youth in general.

The think is Gilbert is a vet, knows all the tricks, is gritty as fuck and wont give up... Could see a Roosavelt Roberts/Pichel kind of fight where Gil is able to work him out and break him... Its just Gilbert has been out so long and was already in decline before that.

You favour Gilbert?

 

[Deleted member 560591]

I thought Nunes would win a dominant decision but the more I looked into it, the more I believe a finish will happen. Holm‘s age and the damage she took over the years are pretty high for WMMA. Amanda finished everyone despite Valentina since her reign of terror.

Holly is always a step behind when she rushes in on good strikers and Nunes will make her pay badly. Her calf kicks are also a gamechanger. When those add up and slow down Holly‘s movement, she will be helpless trying to clinch desperately like many other Nunes victims. The submission option is also a possibility. Holm‘s style is super counter striking based. She is too predictable trying to move forward.

I see this fight playing out exactly like the Anderson - Holm fight in the first 40 seconds. Amanda takes the center and picks her apart making her shoot and clinch but Amanda will stop those attempts and from there on it will be like every Nunes fight despite the Valentina fight. Her fights are always clear cut. No matter what the odds are, Nunes performs like a -1000 favourite.

Only way Nunes loses is if she shows up drunk lol. It’s really her fight to lose.

 

[nebulousned]

Jones/Santos to go the distance 4.00?

Jones said he'd finish him in the latest UFC embedded. I don't know if he says that often or not, but that and Thiago's tendency to go in all guns blazing make it a less appealing bet to me even though Jones has a heck of a lot of decisions.

 

[Gugabe]

He may not finish but over the rounds he can accumulate damage, pick him apart over the fight from the outside and he likes to finish the round with a big flurry. He has all the athletic edge, the reach advantage the speed, just youth in general.

The think is Gilbert is a vet, knows all the tricks, is gritty as fuck and wont give up... Could see a Roosavelt Roberts/Pichel kind of fight where Gil is able to work him out and break him... Its just Gilbert has been out so long and was already in decline before that.

You favour Gilbert?

Yep. If not for layoff I'd favor Gilbert straight up, Allen's 5-0 record really should be like 3-2 at best, and he's had a bunch of ugly, scrappy fights and miraculous comeback guillotines. He's also not the sort of dude to really emphatically win fights. Gilbert should still be the better wrestler/grappler (He's taller and has longer reach, too), Allen's training out of an absolute shit gym in UK & I see this being ultra-close. +310 is nuts.

I thought Nunes would win a dominant decision but the more I looked into it, the more I believe a finish will happen. Holm‘s age and the damage she took over the years are pretty high for WMMA. Amanda finished everyone despite Valentina since her reign of terror.

Holly is always a step behind when she rushes in on good strikers and Nunes will make her pay badly. Her calf kicks are also a gamechanger. When those add up and slow down Holly‘s movement, she will be helpless trying to clinch desperately like many other Nunes victims. The submission option is also a possibility. Holm‘s style is super counter striking based. She is too predictable trying to move forward.

I see this fight playing out exactly like the Anderson - Holm fight in the first 40 seconds. Amanda takes the center and picks her apart making her shoot and clinch but Amanda will stop those attempts and from there on it will be like every Nunes fight despite the Valentina fight. Her fights are always clear cut. No matter what the odds are, Nunes performs like a -1000 favourite.

Only way Nunes loses is if she shows up drunk lol. It’s really her fight to lose.

Could see something close to the Pennington fight, just with Holm landing more and absorbing less with Nunes pacing herself too much.

 

[ApplesVild]

Jones said he'd finish him in the latest UFC embedded. I don't know if he says that often or not, but that and Thiago's tendency to go in all guns blazing make it a less appealing bet to me even though Jones has a heck of a lot of decisions.

Santos fought a more controlled slower pace fight against Jan, so he can do it, and his gas tank is better than you'd expect for a guy as explosive as he is. Jones might get into positions to finish but Santos could just get battered and survive possibly?

I'm on Nunes to finish

 

[ApplesVild]

Yep. If not for layoff I'd favor Gilbert straight up, Allen's 5-0 record really should be like 3-2 at best, and he's had a bunch of ugly, scrappy fights and miraculous comeback guillotines. He's also not the sort of dude to really emphatically win fights. Gilbert should still be the better wrestler/grappler (He's taller and has longer reach, too), Allen's training out of an absolute shit gym in UK & I see this being ultra-close. +310 is nuts.

Could see something close to the Pennington fight, just with Holm landing more and absorbing less with Nunes pacing herself too much.

Allen is at Tristar now I thought? Working his wrestling and grappling a lot.

Saying that Burnell was all over him and crusing to an easy win, but apparently Allen was ill with a chest infection for that fight.

Theres a decent chance Gil is just old and stiff as fuck... Or he comes in fresh from the lay off. Hes worth a play at the current odds I'd have to agree

 

[Gugabe]

Allen is at Tristar now I thought? Working his wrestling and grappling a lot.

Saying that Burnell was all over him and crusing to an easy win, but apparently Allen was ill with a chest infection for that fight.

Theres a decent chance Gil is just old and stiff as fuck... Or he comes in fresh from the lay off. Hes worth a play at the current odds I'd have to agree

Yeah. Definitely a chance that Gilbert comes out and looks like a corpse, but IMO if Gilbert comes as 80% of what he was there's no justifying that line.

 

[Oblivian]

Did you see robbie lawler that fight. special supplement program fer sure. he fuckin angle slammed askren. better wrestling than Mas.

I'd say I see it as a 60/40 split that askren gets the finish via choke or unanswered GNP. Overall I'd cap Askren at -400.

So with that I'd cap askren ITD @ +108 and I see +300. That's reflecting approximately 75-80% chance if askren wins its by decision. value on Askren ITD IMO.

I give Askren ITD around a 10% chance and actually see value in the Not Askren ITD line. Masvidal hasn't been finished since 2009. He's also faced a lot of finishers in there. Askren had some ITD wins in One, but I think we are going to see him revert back to his decision days in Bellator now that he's facing top guys.