UFC 244 Masvidal vs Diaz

[Broe.]

anyone know the last fight where Arlovski shot takedowns?

struve

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Anyone else see Gregor wrestling and exhausting Lee before sinking in that head and arm choke...? Gregor puts on a lot of pressure.

I'm throwing some money on gregor round 3. Lee is shit gassed fighter after 2 rounds.

 

[BigNick100]

anyone know the last fight where Arlovski shot takedowns?

ufcstats.com can answer that question for you. But besides Struve, he also landed 2 against Shamill in round 2 of that fight.

 

[matthew55]

Anyone like the Burgos fight not to go the distance at 2.75?

been goin back n forth on this one,,I think Burgos has a good chance of dropping and maybe finishing Makwan although he hasn't been finished via strikes (I thought I remember Knight almost doing it just 2 fights ago though) ..For Makwan to finish Burgos, I think he'd have to catch him on the feet somehow and get him to the ground, which will be a little less likely but possible. What's your thoughts?

 

[WhosTheBoss]

No one listing t their picks?

come on. WHERES my other degenerates at.

 

[Sono07]

No one listing t their picks?

come on. WHERES my other degenerates at.

Bout to roll something on WB Thompson+Hakeem Dawodu
Little bias in WB but I really think he gets it done.
Hakeem Mean does dirty work in the clinch and pushes a pace, wasn't impressed by Arce.
Who you got?

 

[WhosTheBoss]

Bout to roll something on WB Thompson+Hakeem Dawodu
Little bias in WB but I really think he gets it done.
Hakeem Mean does dirty work in the clinch and pushes a pace, wasn't impressed by Arce.
Who you got?

I’ll post later

was gonna do $200 on 5-7 man parlay , but since I run like shit, I’m gonna do 8-10 parlays at $10-$20 each for more shots.

 

[ApplesVild]

been goin back n forth on this one,,I think Burgos has a good chance of dropping and maybe finishing Makwan although he hasn't been finished via strikes (I thought I remember Knight almost doing it just 2 fights ago though) ..For Makwan to finish Burgos, I think he'd have to catch him on the feet somehow and get him to the ground, which will be a little less likely but possible. What's your thoughts?

Knight did hurt and drop him more than once I believe. Makwan's striking is improved but it's not at the level of Burgos's, not even close. While the fight is standing Makwan should be getting beat up but I don't think as Burgos as a power hitter, if would probably be more of an attrition type beat down.

Makwan's path is the wrestling, if he can get it to the mat and has what it takes to dominate there a sub is possible.

I think he struggles to get it too the ground though, then he is forced to stand and it will just come down to toughness. Can he survive the higher volume cleaner strikes consistently hitting him.

 

[nebulousned]

No one listing t their picks?

come on. WHERES my other degenerates at.

I've got:

Kelvin
Nate
Walker
Small on Blagoy
Maybe small on Arlovski

 

[ApplesVild]

I always throw some parleys on every card. Have Gas/Burgos double, Masvidal/Burgos double and then I have a few silly fun ones just for the lolz, never expect them to hit but the odd few do

WB + Masvidal + Gastelum + Lewis + Kevin Lee just £10 for £210 return

Anderson + Brad + AA + WB + Masvidal + Gastelum + Lewis + Kevin Lee + Burgos just £10 for £3,500 return


My full card picks are -

Anderson + Brad + AA + WB + Masvidal + Gastelum + Lewis + Kevin Lee + Burgos + Arce + Rencounter + Chook - I got a £5 free bet from one of my books so threw it on that for a lol - Return just over £10k

Obviously just for fun

 

[mkess101]

I'm saying in MMA unlike other sports is very unforgiving. If Masvidal fought Till /7x Till maybe wins 4/5? But in that one fight he lost.

Till had him rocked and couldnt put him away.

My point is people (especially on here) overreact to what the outcome just was. It's called recency bias and it's a huge factor in sports betting.

I think we get good value on Till here because of his KO to Masvidal. Additionally I think we also get great value for Diaz because of Masvidals string of KOs.

You think Till beats Masvidal 4/5 times out of 7??? Based on the fact he landed a few good shots and maybe had Mas hurt a bit (but then Masvidal recovered and flatlined him)?

Personally I think Mas has been a bit overrated recently with the KO win over Till then Askren, but it's precisely because Till was overrated that I don't see that as some giant win for Masvidal (it's a nice win but not earth shattering). Till has shown he can be put away when he gets rocked. Kelvin has yet to show that.

I actually think the books (and to be fair the betting public since I don't know what the openers were) have it pretty close to correct with the odds on Mas/Nate and Kelvin/Till. I think anyone betting any ML's on these is trying to squeeze value where there isn't much, honestly.

 

[mkess101]

Anyone else see Gregor wrestling and exhausting Lee before sinking in that head and arm choke...? Gregor puts on a lot of pressure.

Gregor will be the best pure wrestler Lee has faced in his life (wrestling or MMA), and it's probably not close. That said, Lee has shown he's an absolute beast grappler for about a round. I will be really interested to see what round 1 looks like. I'm not sure if Gregor will try to strike at all, or if his plan will be to just hold Lee against the cage and make him work for a round to wear him out. I tend to think the latter.

The thing is, I don't know if Gregor can tire Lee out enough that Lee looks for a way out inside of 15 minutes. If this was a fight night main event and 5 rounds, then for sure Gregor rds 4 and 5 would likely scream value. But in a 3 rounder...IDK. I could see it go a number of ways. Most likely imo is that rd 1 is competitive with Gregor holding Lee against the cage for stretches and Lee looking a little better in the striking when it is at range. Probably a split round on the judges cards. Rd 2 Lee starts slowing, not yet gassed but tired enough that eventually he yields a TD and defends off his back. Maybe gets back to his feet just to get dragged to the mat again. Clear rd for Gregor. Rd 3 Lee is really tired and gets taken down again, stuck under Gregor. Gregor working gnp and looking for that arm triangle but Lee MAYBE surviving until the bell.

 

[Flexstyle]

Looking to parlay all these not to go the distance;

Lee vs Gillespie
Diaz vs Masvidal
Walker vs Anderson
Till vs Gasteslum

 

[ill800]

Looking to parlay all these not to go the distance;

Lee vs Gillespie
Diaz vs Masvidal
Walker vs Anderson
Till vs Gasteslum

I think there’s a good chance all of those could go the distance

 

[Flexstyle]

I think there’s a good chance all of those could go the distance

Maybe but I think it's worth a chance. Pays 13x. Diaz Masvidal a 5 rounder don't really think it'll to the distance and I don't really see Lee having enough energy and not give up a sub. Walker KO also a possibility and Gastelum Till this one i'm not very confident.

 

[ill800]

Maybe but I think it's worth a chance. Pays 13x. Diaz Masvidal a 5 rounder don't really think it'll to the distance and I don't really see Lee having enough energy and not give up a sub. Walker KO also a possibility and Gastelum Till this one i'm not very confident.

That’s a lot of legs for things I cap at 40% and under.

maybe a 2 leg round robin, lighten the overall 4 leg parlay amount and spread it out

 

[turbozed]

smh at Sherdog logic....

Gas has dropped every or ko'd every guy at 185..your talking about the ghost of Vitor who everyone was dropping left and right, Bis who had no business fighting so soon after GSP, and old Tim Kennedy who was making his return after a couple years ago...yes he has dropped a lot of guys but guess what so has Till, dropped or finished everyone he has fought but Woodley. And going up a weight class where he will have even more power. So that arugment for Gas doesn't hold weight.

You want to make a argument Till shouldn't have gotten the nod against Wonderboy, you can argue Gas shouldn't have gotten the nod over Souza

Till is over hyped and hasn't beaten anyone?..well please tell me who the fuck has Gas beat? Yes he has a good showing against Izzy esp that round 4 but equally came back to get fucked up himself in round 5 and Heck, his last 7 wins outside of the Souza win are all retired and no longer in the UFC. He has beaten lots of guys that had one foot out the door and well past their prime.

This is a interesting fight and either guy can KO the other guy here imo, but the value is on Till here in my view. The way the lines are is due to bias and public perspective in that your only as good as your last fight, Gas's stock went up for his showing against Izzy and Till's stock is at a all time low coming off that sub loss to Woodely and Mas turning his lights out.

I think the average age of the 4 guys that Kelvin has beaten at MW is 38 years old. I know you are big on looking for opportunities to fade fighters over 35 so I'm not surprised you also dont rate wins over aging fighters very highly. I guess GSP was right about MMA being a stock market. And I agree that Till is a very unpopular stock whereas Gastelum's price to fundamentals ratio is a bit overvalued.

 

[Sono07]

Looks like Arce was a bantamweight up until 2016. Hakeem has had a least one catch weight bout at 150 if that is worth anything.

 

[Caicara]

I think the average age of the 4 guys that Kelvin has beaten at MW is 38 years old. I know you are big on looking for opportunities to fade fighters over 35 so I'm not surprised you also dont rate wins over aging fighters very highly. I guess GSP was right about MMA being a stock market. And I agree that Till is a very unpopular stock whereas Gastelum's price to fundamentals ratio is a bit overvalued.

On point.

 

[WhosTheBoss]

My picks!