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- Jul 8, 2007
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He had a very close first round with Max, clearly won the 2nd round in that last 60 seconds with that headkick but was losing that entire round easily, and got taken down 3-4 times in the 3rd. How do you nearly finish the guy in the 2nd and still end up getting taken down multiple times in the 3rd.
You don’t need to get offended by my words, you’re probably one of the folks that continues to take him in the -300s.
Why do you keep saying I’m wiki capping? I’ve seen all of his fights live.
What exactly am I wrong about? He throws sloppy hooks that don’t ever land cleanly. His TDD isn’t good. His wrestling offense isn’t good either.
He’s got heart and cardio and funky timing. He has a decent jab but kept getting countered over the top against Max. Maybe you should read my first post on the subject about how I said he was going to win this fight and the fact that I got him at -140.
I’ve literally given you technical reasons and breaking down his fight style but as soon as you see the word pasty is when you got triggered.
I’m just calling it like it is. If you take him at -350 then you don’t understand the concept of value.
If you think there was value in Morono before but value in Williams now, then the logical mathematical strategy is to arb or switch sides.
K-Taro and Mein probably beat Khaos Williams as well. And anyone who hasn't seen significant improvement in Morono since those fights hasn't been paying close enough attention imo.
Looking at the bets thread there is a shit ton bet on Morono which probably wouldn't happen on any other card with better spots. So much loaded up on Morono who in truth is a middle of the pack fighter. I just hope he pulls through for all of us.
I don’t intend to play Williams. I do not see value in Williams. That is not the case here. He almost got choked by a 16-19 guy.
Still doesn’t turn a C+ level fighter into a -350 favorite. I wouldn’t even put Morono in the top 25.
Maybe I'm confused and not getting your point. I also wouldn't take Morono at -350, but I'm not as sure as you that doing so is clearly a mistake.
Would you agree with the idea that a C+ UFC level fighter can still beat a C level regional fighter 80% of the time? In this case we have a C level regional guy on short notice.
I'm a guy who likes to find value on dogs by looking for variance, but here the variance is just a punchers chance for Khaos, and most likely only in 1st rd. There are no base rates for KO percentage for UFC debutantes, much less those on short notice and with subpar cardio. But if you take the standard KO rate of ww fights at 35%, generously divide that 2, you get a 17.5% KO chance for Williams as a base rate. Subtract a 5% or more for skill gap and cardio issues for Williams and you get close to 10%. Now you might disagree with that analysis, but it's a supportable based on tape.
So even factoring in variance, 80% is justifiable and we are taking more about degrees than anything else. I don't think it's fair to give the other guy a hard time even if you disagree with the value.
The barking/ kaia stuff? Yea Paul Felder does that too. Annoying but she could throw Shevchenko's timing off. Still hoping for the Bullet by decision.Vals opponent telegraphs all her shots.