UFC 247 Jones vs Reyes

Rebel_LioN said:
He had a very close first round with Max, clearly won the 2nd round in that last 60 seconds with that headkick but was losing that entire round easily, and got taken down 3-4 times in the 3rd. How do you nearly finish the guy in the 2nd and still end up getting taken down multiple times in the 3rd.
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Morono clearly won round 1. It wasn't a one-sided beating, but there is a reason why all 3 judges, and 10/14 media members scored it for him. Round 2 was a no-brainer 10-8, and the claim that Morono was losing the round before then is laughable. Round 3 Max got a half-dozen takedowns in an otherwise nothing round to win it. Why so many? Because Morono got up easily after each one. Max knew he doesn't have the cardio to wrestle like that for more than a round, since a similar strategy against Imadaev only worked due to a timely point deduction.

You don’t need to get offended by my words, you’re probably one of the folks that continues to take him in the -300s.
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Actually, I didn't have enough time to properly tape Williams, so no bet. I just found your Wikicapping to be lazy as hell, especially since people have been using that logic to bet against Morono in his last 3 fights, and losing each and every single time.
 
Why do you keep saying I’m wiki capping? I’ve seen all of his fights live.

What exactly am I wrong about? He throws sloppy hooks that don’t ever land cleanly. His TDD isn’t good. His wrestling offense isn’t good either.

He’s got heart and cardio and funky timing. He has a decent jab but kept getting countered over the top against Max. Maybe you should read my first post on the subject about how I said he was going to win this fight and the fact that I got him at -140. If I were you I’d watch that fight again.

I’ve literally given you technical reasons and breaking down his fight style but as soon as you see the word pasty is when you got triggered. Not sure why that’s so offensive.

I’m just calling it like it is. If you take him at -350 then you don’t understand the concept of value.
 
K-Taro and Mein probably beat Khaos Williams as well. And anyone who hasn't seen significant improvement in Morono since those fights hasn't been paying close enough attention imo.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Why do you keep saying I’m wiki capping? I’ve seen all of his fights live.

What exactly am I wrong about? He throws sloppy hooks that don’t ever land cleanly. His TDD isn’t good. His wrestling offense isn’t good either.

He’s got heart and cardio and funky timing. He has a decent jab but kept getting countered over the top against Max. Maybe you should read my first post on the subject about how I said he was going to win this fight and the fact that I got him at -140.

I’ve literally given you technical reasons and breaking down his fight style but as soon as you see the word pasty is when you got triggered.

I’m just calling it like it is. If you take him at -350 then you don’t understand the concept of value.
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If you think there was value in Morono before but value in Williams now, then the logical mathematical strategy is to arb or switch sides.
 
turbozed said:
If you think there was value in Morono before but value in Williams now, then the logical mathematical strategy is to arb or switch sides.
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I don’t intend to play Williams. I do not see value in Williams. That is not the case here. He almost got choked by a 16-19 guy.

Still doesn’t turn a C+ level fighter into a -350 favorite. I wouldn’t even put Morono in the top 25.
 
I like Morono, but he's going to be held back from ever being especially relevant by just not being a particularly good athlete. But he's pretty technical, sensible and keeps plugging away.

IMO give Morono Usman's body and he's a dominant champ.
 
turbozed said:
K-Taro and Mein probably beat Khaos Williams as well. And anyone who hasn't seen significant improvement in Morono since those fights hasn't been paying close enough attention imo.
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I never said he hasn’t improved. You’re assuming I’m picking Williams to win based off me giving an honest break down of what Morono’s skill set is.

K-Taro and Mein wouldn’t just ‘probably’ beat Williams, both of them would absolutely finish the guy in the first Round.

@PolarBearPaulVarelans I don’t need to convince to do anything bradda you keep doin you. When Morono wins go buy yourself a small Big Mac combo Saturday night.
 
LEMONZEST said:
Looking at the bets thread there is a shit ton bet on Morono which probably wouldn't happen on any other card with better spots. So much loaded up on Morono who in truth is a middle of the pack fighter. I just hope he pulls through for all of us.
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This was a truly awful card for betting, before Williams stepped in. I wouldn't argue with Morono -600.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I don’t intend to play Williams. I do not see value in Williams. That is not the case here. He almost got choked by a 16-19 guy.

Still doesn’t turn a C+ level fighter into a -350 favorite. I wouldn’t even put Morono in the top 25.
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Maybe I'm confused and not getting your point. I also wouldn't take Morono at -350, but I'm not as sure as you that doing so is clearly a mistake.

Would you agree with the idea that a C+ UFC level fighter can still beat a C level regional fighter 80% of the time? In this case we have a C level regional guy on short notice.

I'm a guy who likes to find value on dogs by looking for variance, but here the variance is just a punchers chance for Khaos, and most likely only in 1st rd. There are no base rates for KO percentage for UFC debutantes, much less those on short notice and with subpar cardio. But if you take the standard KO rate of ww fights at 35%, generously divide that 2, you get a 17.5% KO chance for Williams as a base rate. Subtract a 5% or more for skill gap and cardio issues for Williams and you get close to 10%. Now you might disagree with that analysis, but it's a supportable based on tape.

So even factoring in variance, 80% is justifiable and we are taking more about degrees than anything else. I don't think it's fair to give the other guy a hard time even if you disagree with the value.
 
turbozed said:
Maybe I'm confused and not getting your point. I also wouldn't take Morono at -350, but I'm not as sure as you that doing so is clearly a mistake.

Would you agree with the idea that a C+ UFC level fighter can still beat a C level regional fighter 80% of the time? In this case we have a C level regional guy on short notice.

I'm a guy who likes to find value on dogs by looking for variance, but here the variance is just a punchers chance for Khaos, and most likely only in 1st rd. There are no base rates for KO percentage for UFC debutantes, much less those on short notice and with subpar cardio. But if you take the standard KO rate of ww fights at 35%, generously divide that 2, you get a 17.5% KO chance for Williams as a base rate. Subtract a 5% or more for skill gap and cardio issues for Williams and you get close to 10%. Now you might disagree with that analysis, but it's a supportable based on tape.

So even factoring in variance, 80% is justifiable and we are taking more about degrees than anything else. I don't think it's fair to give the other guy a hard time even if you disagree with the value.
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C+ fighter breaks his hand and then he’s now a C level fighter.

B level fighter breaks his hand and he uses another dimension of his game to win the fight.

But at least a -350 favorite buys you a happy meal with a nice spongebob toy.

I wasn’t giving anyone a hard time actually, should read that sequence over again.

But hey, I hope this trend sticks that means I’m going to get some really nice dog odds in the very near future.
 
I honestly expect Morono to ruin every bodies night here.
 
Gotta back Krause here with a submission

probably 3rd round if you want to buy your momma a house aswell

you are all welcome
 
Dave Henderson said:
Vals opponent telegraphs all her shots.
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The barking/ kaia stuff? Yea Paul Felder does that too. Annoying but she could throw Shevchenko's timing off. Still hoping for the Bullet by decision.
 
Anyone betting the first fight? Austin Lingo vs Youssef Zala?
Zala seems the first potential underdog of the night with Sub chances.
 
So if I heard the commentary from the Krause vs Alves fight, Krause co-owns or at least trains/trained with Zak Cummings at Glory MMA? Cummings who subbed Giles recently? Also looked like Giles struggled against the SP stand up of Cummings, something Krause could use as well.
Probably have to agree with this talk about last minute.


Big gap since Giles last win too.
 
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Took another look at props before event begins and Lewis ITD at near evens is generous. Tied for most KO's in heavyweight history and can break the record by KO'ing Latifi in front of his home crowd tmr.. I don't trust Latifi to not gas out just because he's moving up in weight, and after seeing him at the weigh ins I had to admit to myself he looks like shit. I can never Lewis ML at -250 but in this particular instance his ITD is like ML to me and I will have to play it as well as his individual round 2 and 3 finish props to supplement the ITD.
 
Significant pants height advantage for Chookagian, Ewell, Pilarte, and Adams.

Today Chookagian makes history for being the biggest underdog with a SPHA.
 
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