UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

[Naught2Sixty]

Esparza Has 40% win chance

 

[Wiktoruspro]

IMO she has 40% I analysed their last fights and Waterson should be the favourite

 

[mkess101]

IMO she has 40% I analysed their last fights and Waterson should be the favourite

Hmmm...I disagree with that. I wouldn't pay juice on Carla but I wouldn't make her the dog either. Line seems pretty close to correct to me, maybe Carla a bit too juiced. I'd probably cap Carla -130 and Michelle +100 or something like that.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Hmmm...I disagree with that. I wouldn't pay juice on Carla but I wouldn't make her the dog either. Line seems pretty close to correct to me, maybe Carla a bit too juiced. I'd probably cap Carla -130 and Michelle +100 or something like that.

Sure, I respect Your opinion. Esparza had hard times with bum Grasso. Waterson is on a higher level

 

[benebox]

I didn't know you guys have a space for betting discussions here LOL Well, I was serching some content about the fights and ended up here...

I saw some good value on the options bellow, but I wanted to know what you guys think before pulling the trigger:

Charles Rosa WIN - 2.30
I think it's a VERY close fight with Mitchell. I think it can be a pretty frenetic fight and I don't see neither of them having a big advantage over each other.

Michelle Waterson WIN - 2.30
For me is crazy that she's being considered the underdog. She'll finally have the size advantage which will be huge for her to be able to fight in space and use her kicks; And she's not only very good on the ground, she's very aggressive with her guard. I see Esparza as a very passive fighter, I think even if she manages to take Waterson down, Waterson could be more effective.

Jeremy Stephens WIN - 3.00
Jeremy Stephens Decision - 6.00
OR
Jeremy Stephens KO - 5.00
I think this is a very close fight. Kattar has much better technique with his hands, but I see as a good matchup for Stephens. Kattar doesn't move too much and this could easily become a brawl. Kattar relies a lot on his jab, but I think Stephens can do more damage by being more aggressive and having more power. I'm in doubt about going with the Decision or KO. I think both are very possible and have crazy value.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik WIN 3.30
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Decision 9.00
This one is the one I'm less confident LOL But I've seen Jairzinho eat some BOMBS and not even flinch. I'm betting this dude has a crazy chin and is going to survive to Ngannou early pressure and then take advantage of a tired, frustrated Ngannou.

Dominick Cruz WIN 2.80
Dominick Cruz Decision 4.00
It's impossible to know how Cruz is going to show up, but in every comeback he looked pretty good. I'm betting he's in good shape. If he is, he's a very bad matchup for Cejudo. He'll do his thing, keeping the fight on the outside, scoring constantly and winning the rounds. Cejudo's chances are closing the distance, forcing short distance exchanges, clinching and going for takedowns. If he manages to get in close distance with Cruz, he will get the takedowns. But I believe in Cruz not fighting dumb like he did against Cody and keeping the fight on the outside.

Tony Ferguson Decision 6.00
Fight going over two and a half rounds 2.25
This will be a war, both guys have crazy chin/heart and it wouldn't surprise me if it goes all 5 rounds. The key is how will Tony handle the leg kicks. He has shown pretty bad kick defense, but who knows... For me he's more talented, have better cardio and can handle Justin's attacks.

Haven't taped the woman yet...

If you are betting on Cruz (I am at 4.50), the decision makes sense as that's 80% likely how he wins. The risk is how he will perform after such a long lay off, but I do think there is value in it.

Rozenstruik gets hit way too much for me to be comfortable to bet him straight. However, as he is a counter puncher with an iron chin the decision isn't half bad at those odds, but then again you can use the same argument for a Nnganou decision at 6.50.


As for the main if Gatheje wins its likely to be while Furguson is getting into the flow of things with a 1/2 rd KO, but as the fight progresses Tony should start to take over. Only 2 out of 23 Gaethje fights have gone to a decision so I would be very surprised if this one does as its probably going to be a war.

 

[mkess101]

Sure, I respect Your opinion. Esparza had hard times with bum Grasso. Waterson is on a higher level

I think Michelle is more skilled but also is too willing to accept bottom and play guard. Carla will spam TD's and probably get them. Michelle is capable off her back but it's not an easy way to win rounds and in a 3 rounder...IDK.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Watersons guard is active and shes dexterous but it's not some mystical place no one wants to be (except Wik fap fap fap). Is she really a better BJJ player than Claudia or Jandiroba?

 

[mkess101]

Watersons guard is active and shes dexterous but it's not some mystical place no one wants to be (except Wik fap fap fap). Is she really a better BJJ player than Claudia or Jandiroba?

I think I trust Michelle's gas tank more than either of those two, if nothing else...

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I think I trust Michelle's gas tank more than either of those two, if nothing else...

Fair play. I think Jandiroba did ok conditioning wise in Invicta notably against Mizuki and her fight with Carla was pretty short notice.

 

[mkess101]

Fair play. I think Jandiroba did ok conditioning wise in Invicta notably against Mizuki and her fight with Carla was pretty short notice.

Was it short notice? Okay that I did not know (or if I did I forgot it). That's fair. Still might trust Waterson's more, but less so knowing that.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Was it short notice? Okay that I did not know (or if I did I forgot it). That's fair. Still might trust Waterson's more, but less so knowing that.

Carla was suppose to fight Livia Souza and pulled out. Jandiroba replaced her. Was announced 4-4 and the event was 4-27. So....not THAT short notice lol. Idk if Jandiroba had a fight lined up or not

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Surprised Werdum ITD is at even money, I consider that his ML in this matchup. Oleynik doesn't have the cardio to reach the finish line and is outclassed in all facets, probably go a unit on the ITD.

 

[Krieg the Psycho]

Surprised Werdum ITD is at even money, I consider that his ML in this matchup. Oleynik doesn't have the cardio to reach the finish line and is outclassed in all facets, probably go a unit on the ITD.

It's not even money at any of my books, so it might be a good idea to take those odds while you still can. I took -125 a few days ago.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

It's not even money at any of my books, so it might be a good idea to take those odds while you still can. I took -125 a few days ago.

Sorry I should have said close to evens, it's at -120 for me. But yeah I think there's value in it was expecting -200 or north of it. GL with the bet!

 

[Macaque]

I’ll take a shot on Rozenstruik. Small bet, so I won’t cry if his head flies to the eleventh row.

 

[matthew55]

I've been torn on Hall/ Jacare fight since I heard it was happening. I've always been a fan of Jacare but you can't deny he's looking a little old and unmotivated lately. Hall on the other hand, you never really know what you're gonna get with him. In his last fight Shoeface was able to get him down and even get his back a few times, but to Hall's credit, he escaped those tough positions. Would he be able to do the same against Jacare? Idk, but he might not even have to worry too much about it as it seems Jacare is just willing to stand and trade (albeit very little) the whole time. So I'd have to take Hall in this case with the better stand up imo. Any thoughts, I haven't done much tape really, but I just remember Jacare's last fight vs Jan was a snoozefest.

 

[Captain Crunch28]

Was it short notice? Okay that I did not know (or if I did I forgot it). That's fair. Still might trust Waterson's more, but less so knowing that.

It’s fookin wmma for crying out loud this is a mma thread

 

[SBJJ]

I think I like Hall, Cowboy and Tony. Their opponents gas tanks are limited and I think it will be even worse due to COVID and the lack of real training camps.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I've been torn on Hall/ Jacare fight since I heard it was happening. I've always been a fan of Jacare but you can't deny he's looking a little old and unmotivated lately. Hall on the other hand, you never really know what you're gonna get with him. In his last fight Shoeface was able to get him down and even get his back a few times, but to Hall's credit, he escaped those tough positions. Would he be able to do the same against Jacare? Idk, but he might not even have to worry too much about it as it seems Jacare is just willing to stand and trade (albeit very little) the whole time. So I'd have to take Hall in this case with the better stand up imo. Any thoughts, I haven't done much tape really, but I just remember Jacare's last fight vs Jan was a snoozefest.

I want to play Hall but what I'm afraid of is Souza pushing him to the cage and keeping it there for 3 rounds. Basically all he did vs Jan walk forward like zombie throw slow bombs, ultra low volume and cage push. Shoeface was getting some takedowns against the cage vs Hall which worries me because Souza also attempts it there and if it goes to the ground Hall isn't getting out of it this time imo. I'm really just expecting a slow pace fight of low volume from both sides and lots of lull moments. Very interested in distance bets like o2.5 or +300 range decision props personally. Passing is not a bad option either.

 

[benebox]

I've been torn on Hall/ Jacare fight since I heard it was happening. I've always been a fan of Jacare but you can't deny he's looking a little old and unmotivated lately. Hall on the other hand, you never really know what you're gonna get with him. In his last fight Shoeface was able to get him down and even get his back a few times, but to Hall's credit, he escaped those tough positions. Would he be able to do the same against Jacare? Idk, but he might not even have to worry too much about it as it seems Jacare is just willing to stand and trade (albeit very little) the whole time. So I'd have to take Hall in this case with the better stand up imo. Any thoughts, I haven't done much tape really, but I just remember Jacare's last fight vs Jan was a snoozefest.

I'm really surprised so many people are picking Hall over Jacare. Hall gets held against the cage and taken down against every capable grappler he faces, is he really going to be able to fend off Souza? Against the much bigger Jan, Souza was able to hold him against the cage for the majority of the fight, a position I would favour him to take Hall down. My concern is that Souza gets caught trying to land one of his overextended haymakers on the way in but I feel he will more often than not dictate where the fight takes place limiting the chance of it.