UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

Wiktoruspro said:
Guys sure Rozenstriuk can lose by ko, Francis has monster power. But when some of you bet bums like Alvey because of plus number than why not to take stab of Rozenstriuk, great risk/odds.
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please noone entertain this, I really don't wanna go thru pages of "value betting" and "fook units"
 
I can't really recall Pettis old fights where he quit but when I think about the pettis vs Ferguson and pettis vs Diaz fights I saw a guy who was willing to weather the storm and show a lot of fight, something Cerrone has shown the complete opposite of.

The question is will pettis tko cerrone or beat him decisively to a decision.
 
TheFightGame said:
I can't really recall Pettis old fights where he quit but when I think about the pettis vs Ferguson and pettis vs Diaz fights I saw a guy who was willing to weather the storm and show a lot of fight, something Cerrone has shown the complete opposite of.

The question is will pettis tko cerrone or beat him decisively to a decision.
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I think tko is more likely, after r1 Pettis will slow down
 
Wiktoruspro said:
They have more chance than bum alvey which really is throwing money out of window by betting this clown.
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I can see the most value in the Rozenstruik bet, especially the decision odds at +900.
 
One thing with Oleinik that should be a concern I guess is although he choked them out, Albino and Pesta took him down and got to half guard and full mount respectively.

Granted he was setting up the chokes so didn't fight the takedowns/guard passes too much but it doesn't really inspire any confidence that he'll be able to stop Werdum taking him down or passing guard whenever he wants if he does take him down and if he wasawas to have anycany of submitting Werdum, it's not going to come off his back from half guard or worse.

I can't remember much of the Volkov fight but prior to hat Werdum also built a very respectable striking game through muay Thai.

He may have regressed massively but outside of power (which definitely factors in at HW), Werdum should hold a big advantage everywhere.

I think this is a tune up fight for Werdum. He's a fairly big name and is coming back from suspension - he's never necessarily been a front runner himself in terms of quick finishes, he's willing to fight slow and has gone to a decision 1/3 of the time with a lot of the finishes coming later in fights.

My main concern would be Oleinik not having enough in him to go deep in a fight and I think it'll depend on his mentality. He could come out thinking he had a round to finish it and go out on his shield in round 1 with that kill or be killed mentality.

Alternatively, if he obliges we could see Werdum set the pace, rack up cage time and shake off some ring rust with a slow paced fight he clearly controls with a finish potentially on the cards in R2/3.

I'll check the odds later or tomorrow but maybe gut have something on Werdum Dec, his R2/3 props and maybe the over 1.5 or fight starts round 2.
 
thinking about putting a big bet on triple c lol... its something about how big and shredded his muscles are man hes just so vascular and everything just pops like hes on some secret olympic sauce probably just hgh...

also cruz last fight in 2016? always injured and his main focus now seems to be being a commentator for the ufc i think hes done, age is a big factor in the light classes.
 
My only other thoughts really are on Ferguson/Gaethje.

There's been some talk about Justin changing his style and being more patient. Personally I haven't really seen that in any of his recent fights but think if I was going to bet Justin and that patience was true, that would put me off as opposed to making me more likely to bet him.

If he's going to win, it'll be by forward pressure and sucking Ferguson into a brawl. Ferguson is a great pressure fighter with endless cardio, if Justin concedes early to let Ferguson control the fight he will get walked down and touched constantly.

Justin isn't a matador, he's a bull. If he has success here it'll be similar to what success looks like in all his other fights; his opponent backed up against the cage and Justin unloading. He has one path to victory and that's T/KO.

Patience is the last thing you want against one of the best pressure fighters in the world. Honestly, if I could be sure that he would take that approach it'd be a Ferguson max bet.
 
It's a long interview but Mitchell is an entertaining dude.



He's got that good ol' southern boy strength. Do you know how hard it would be to grab ahold of a deer and keep a grip on it? Jesus christ
 
Holy shit Stephens missed weight by 5 pounds. He will be fookin big, Im worried about my Calvin bet
 
Ok some thoughts:

Ryan Spann should annihilate Alvey on paper but his last fight leaves a lot to be desired on tape. He is super hesitant and I felt he lost the first round even though he walked his opponent down the whole round. He simply didn’t throw. Whether he was just being overly patient or was gun shy I don’t know but enough reason to consider taking the Alvey +250 points

Greg Hardy is always a non bet for me but I can see him getting countered. I hope we see him get meme TKOd

Rosen is a fine striker but he’s really coming up several levels here. I think the fight stays a little patty cakes a la the Lewis fight with some strong leg kicks for Ngannou to win by decision. Best bet is it hits cards but I got Ngannou sub at +1500 and I really like that bet a lot

Cerrone and Pettis is a fight I would have liked to have seen years ago. Oh wait I did. Pettis TKO R1 @ these odds yes please

You all know I’m on Gaethje and I have him by TKO

Verdum is too much chalk so best bet for me is the under

I like the odds on Watterson submission, she almost had one locked up against JJ a couple times and that’s JJ. Close fight that will probably hit the cards but those are good odds.

My biggest bet on this card value wise will be the over on subs. I think we could see 6 or 7 of them and the value on that should be recklessly high
 
Fabricio looks bad, old and not in shape.

Rozenstriuk 10 pounds heavier than against Overeem.

Oleynik in good shape
 
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I had to take a stab on Waterson. I think the line should be flipped. Essentially what this means is that Esparza will lay and pray to a 30-27 snoozer.
 
Oleinik looking pretty good and slim. He not usually 227?
 
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