UFC 250

Seeing HUGE potential in these unders. If I’m still correct they are using the smaller octagon? Still great bets with bigger octagon. I see tons of finishes. Worst odds are -130 on Hooper Caceres under 2 1/2 the rest are all + odds
 
Seeing HUGE potential in these unders. If I’m still correct they are using the smaller octagon? Still great bets with bigger octagon. I see tons of finishes. Worst odds are -130 on Hooper Caceres under 2 1/2 the rest are all + odds

Which fights do you expect a finish?
 
I think Martin wants to win way more than magny does and it will show Saturday. He will take the victory from magny, who’s going to want to wall and stall after Rocco leg kicks him 3 times
 
Seeing HUGE potential in these unders. If I’m still correct they are using the smaller octagon? Still great bets with bigger octagon. I see tons of finishes. Worst odds are -130 on Hooper Caceres under 2 1/2 the rest are all + odds
I like Hooper not ITD @ -135. Although they'll probably be some serious sweats, I think Caceres will be able to weather the storm and maybe even put Hooper in some trouble.
 
I like Hooper not ITD @ -135. Although they'll probably be some serious sweats, I think Caceres will be able to weather the storm and maybe even put Hooper in some trouble.
Chase has a good rnc and Alex is historically bad at defending them
 
I just cant bet my money on Cody. How can you trust someone who already has 1 foot out the divisions door? The excuse is already there for him if he loses.

Assun is more than a gate keeper for this division as he has beat the who's who already.

I see the line on cody continuing to climb and I just flat out dont see why. Is cody really going to use his range and out point Raph? I highly fucking doubt it
 
Marleys picks With a lol at top


$100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $20,000!

Marley has hit a WHOPPING eight consecutive UFC main-event picks, including five straight upsets! Last week at UFC Fight Night, he accurately predicted a dominant decision win for Gilbert Burns (+150) against Tyron Woodley (-170). Anyone who has consistently followed Marley is WAY UP.

For UFC 250, we can tell you he's backing Chase Hooper (-150) to defeat Alex Caceres (+130) in a featherweight bout. He's also backing one fighter who "can win by knockout, submission, or decision!" You ABSOLUTELY need to see Marley's picks before making any of your own!


Here are Marley's picks and analysis for UFC 250 (odds from William Hill US):

Amanda Nunes (-600) vs. Felicia Spencer (+450): Nunes via TKO

Aside from a submission, I don't see how Spencer wins. Nunes is the better fighter everywhere and she should dominate, especially on the feet. I doubt Nunes goes for takedowns, so if Spencer can't get any herself, I see her getting finished in round 1 or 2.

Cody Garbrandt (-145) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+125): Garbrandt via decision

Garbrandt is the better boxer and has a lot more power as well. Assuncao is the better grappler and the guy with higher fight IQ. Garbrandt is the better wrestler, so he should be able to keep this fight on the feet and, as long as he doesn't charge in with his chin up, I think he will get the win. Assuncao doesn't have big power, so I am not as worried about Garbrandt's chin. He should be landing more volume and has the better shot at a knockout.

Aljamain Sterling (-115) vs. Cory Sandhagen (-105): Sandhagen via stoppage

I love this fight. Sandhagen has a big edge on the feet and Sterling should have a decent edge on the ground. Sterling is going to look to be all the way out, or all the way in for this fight. He wants to work his kicks and his ground game, and Sandhagen should be trying to close the distance on the feet and stuffing takedowns. Sterling doesn't have great wrestling but Sandhagen doesn't have great takedown defense, so if Sterling wins this fight it will come through grappling. I like Sandhagen a lot more on the feet here though and he is dangerous on the ground himself, so I am going to lean with him as my pick here and the big difference will be his punches landing much more than Sterling's kicks.

Neil Magny (-145) vs. Anthony Rocco Martin (+125): Martin by decision

Neil is going to be the longer fighter here with a 7-inch reach advantage, and if he uses it, I think that will help him a lot on the feet here. I think he should look to land a lot of jabs and front kicks to keep Martin on the outside, and with this likely being a slower paced fight, that could get him the win here. Martin should look to chop down Magny's legs with kicks and that could change how this fight goes. Either guy could have success with takedowns, but I see this mainly staying on the feet. If this was a pickem' fight, I would lean with Magny. However, I think this is dog or pass on the betting line, so I will go with Martin as my pick here.

Sean O'Malley (-440) vs. Eddie Wineland (+360): O'Malley via TKO

I think O'Malley is the better fighter everywhere and I think he can win by knockout, submission or decision. Wineland should look to turn this into a brawl and, if he can do that, a knockout is his chance at a win. I see O'Malley picking him apart and picking up a finish of his own in round 2 or 3.

Chase Hooper (-150) vs. Alex Caceres (+130): Hooper via submission

I favor Caceres on the feet but I like Hooper when the fight hits the mat. I don't see Hooper accepting a striking fight and I think he will look for takedowns. I see him locking up a submission at some point, but he isn't a good wrestler, so it could be a sweat until he gets it to the mat. Caceres doesn't really have one-shot power, and that is what I would worry more with against Hooper.

Ian Heinisch (-125) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+105): Meerschaert via decision

I think this is a close fight on the feet with the edge going to Heinisch, although Meerschaert has been looking better in the striking department. I like him on the mat in and I expect him to look for takedowns throughout. If he can get it to the mat, I think he can lock up a submission. But I think he can keep this fight close enough in the striking to where any ground action from him could steal a round or make it clearer for the judges.

Cody Stamann (-275) vs. Brian Kelleher (+235): Stamann via decision

I see this one being close on the feet, but Stamann having a big edge in the wrestling department. I think a guillotine from Kelleher is in play, but he needs that or a knockout to get the win. I think Stamann will be too much for him with the wrestling and he has the cardio to put up a high pace for 15 minutes.

Charles Byrd (-170) vs. Maki Pitolo (+150): Byrd via submission

I like Byrd here. I think he is the more powerful striker on the feet, but I like him more for his ground game in this one. I think he has a big wrestling edge and he could get a submission or ground-and-pound finish. On the feet, Pitolo is the better boxer and has power himself, but Byrd is solid there and I think he could win a striking match as well.

Alex Perez (-140) vs. Jussier Formiga (+120): Perez via decision

If Perez doesn't get submitted, he should win this fight. I like Perez a lot more in the striking department and he is the better wrestler as well. I don't see Formiga being able to land takedowns, so I think he needs to get Perez's back to have a chance. I doubt he can backpack him long enough to win on the scorecards, so I think he has to lock up a submission to have a chance and I don't see that happening.

Alonzo Menifield (-220) vs. Devin Clark (+190): Menifield via TKO

Clark is the better wrestler in this fight, but he is going to need to use it the entire time to get a win here. He needs takedowns every round or he needs to get a finish with GNP or a submission. I think Clark is in trouble on the feet if he can't get it to the mat and a KO from Menifield is the most likely outcome in my opinion. I think he is good enough to stuff takedowns or get back to his feet and I see him landing a big shot at some point and putting Clark away.

Herbert Burns (-240) vs. Evan Dunham (+200): Burns via submission

I used to be high on Dunham, but now he is 38 years old and hasn't looked good in four years. Burns had a big win in his UFC debut and his brother is coming off a huge win last weekend, so his confidence is probably riding high. I think this could be close on the feet, but I favor Burns there and I think he has a big edge on the ground.
 
$100 bettor is up 16 million following my concrete lockz

Formiga can absolutely take Perez down. He’s got a black belt in judo as well as jiu jitsu and I’d say he’s the better grappler. What’s Perez the wrestler going to look like off his back against a bjj guy as credentialed as formiga?
 
Marleys picks With a lol at top


$100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $20,000!

Marley has hit a WHOPPING eight consecutive UFC main-event picks.

I like Marley and respect his picks I really do but the guy posts some of the most ridiculous shit. Last week he said Dern -450 was his free lock of the week.

Like ya no shit. My grandma with glaucoma would have picked Dern to win.

BUT. I do like his breakdowns and I love when I disagree with his analysis and see who ends up right / wrong and why.
 
I just cant bet my money on Cody. How can you trust someone who already has 1 foot out the divisions door? The excuse is already there for him if he loses.

Assun is more than a gate keeper for this division as he has beat the who's who already.

I see the line on cody continuing to climb and I just flat out dont see why. Is cody really going to use his range and out point Raph? I highly fucking doubt it
It's a gamble on Cody's pride. He gets in dumb exchanges because he has a small man complex. But he did change camps for this fight so....I guess it depends if his new camp has any history of being able to completely change a fighter's approach. coming off 3 ko/tko losses in a row.. would rather see what the odds are for FDNGTD
 
The annoying part of his picks is that he will make one and then give both sides as to how both fighters can win so even if he loses the bet he can justify it by saying stuff like "I think a guillotine from Kelleher is in play but he needs that or a knockout to get the win. Oh and by the way I'm on Stamann but if Stamann loses I told you about the guillotine and knockout!!"
 
It's a gamble on Cody's pride. He gets in dumb exchanges because he has a small man complex. But he did change camps for this fight so....I guess it depends if his new camp has any history of being able to completely change a fighter's approach. coming off 3 ko/tko losses in a row.. would rather see what the odds are for FDNGTD

Can a coach take emotion out of a fighter? I guess we will find out!
 
The annoying part of his picks is that he will make one and then give both sides as to how both fighters can win so even if he loses the bet he can justify it by saying stuff like "I think a guillotine from Kelleher is in play but he needs that or a knockout to get the win. Oh and by the way I'm on Stamann but if Stamann loses I told you about the guillotine and knockout!!"

Welcome to being a "pro" gambler.

Also I find it funny how these guys never show how much they make / all of their bets.
 
Some weird fight IQ's on this card. Ian's athleticism seems to be his one selling point. Athleticism might be Gerald's kryptonite though.

I think the only thing worse than Garbrandt's fight IQ is his actual IQ. Anybody remember this gem? Him accusing TJ of PED use before their fight.
"You're the one who showed everyone on Team Alpha Male how to do it"

That probably felt like a solid burn to him but seems more like he threw his team under the bus. I think TJ gave Cody CTE or speed up the process. Cody was probably on what TJ was on at least a while back. Garbrandt should wins the fight but between his iq and chin he has more red flags than China.
 
I have hooper, o malley, Byrd, formiga, Henisch, menifield, Garbrandt, and nunes fights ending in a finish , no particular fighter finishing but those I named have a higher percentage to finish imo. Surprised at the odds to say the least. Still not sure if it’s a smaller octagon and if it is you’d think the books would make changes.
 
Some weird fight IQ's on this card. Ian's athleticism seems to be his one selling point. Athleticism might be Gerald's kryptonite though.

I think the only thing worse than Garbrandt's fight IQ is his actual IQ. Anybody remember this gem? Him accusing TJ of PED use before their fight.
"You're the one who showed everyone on Team Alpha Male how to do it"

That probably felt like a solid burn to him but seems more like he threw his team under the bus. I think TJ gave Cody CTE or speed up the process. Cody was probably on what TJ was on at least a while back. Garbrandt should wins the fight but between his iq and chin he has more red flags than China.

That was funny, love press conferences with angry Cody
<Goldie11>
 
Apparently Ray Longo will not be in Sterlings corner for this fight due to his concerns about Coronavirus, this leads me to think he probably hasn't spent much time in the gym with him either, but that is speculation on my part.

I believe that has changed, he'll be cornering

Chase has a good rnc and Alex is historically bad at defending them

He's had a lot of dead to rights RNCs locked in but lacks the physicality to finish them, as well as other subs. Though that will eventually change
 
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