UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal (7/11)

[LEMONZEST]

Yes, Gilbert and Marty also said that Jorge is a partier which tells me he isn’t the type of dude to stay in shape year round. If masvidal is looking soft at the weigh ins, house on usman.

Think for yourself man. Have you ever seen Mas look soft in the last 5 years? I haven't. Dude is shredded and stays active.

Even if Mas does miss weight my guess is that it would be intentional.

 

[TrueAscension]

Think for yourself man. Have you ever seen Mas look soft in the last 5 years? I haven't. Dude is shredded and stays active.

Even if Mas does miss weight my guess is that it would be intentional.

Intentionally taking a fight to not win a belt?

 

[mkess101]

Getting the belt IS money though. Don't the champs get PPV money?

I am not worried about Masvidal's diet or whatever. The guy is a pro and knows what it takes to fight and win. Has he every missed weight prior to this fight? He might have but I don't remember it. Even if he does miss weight it will be strategic on his part and probably be a good thing (in terms of him trying to win).

I don't think he's missed but I also don't think he's ever taken a fight on 6 days notice either.

I guess my point is that he was probably honest with them about what he weighed and how much he needed to cut. If he misses it's not the knock it would normally be. "Free pass" is probably too strong, but I think he knows that if he misses they are gonna forgive it.

 

[Sauna]

Intentionally taking a fight to not win a belt?

well he has nothing to lose and everythint to gain so i get the argument. Hes stock is still fine if he loses like everybody thinks and gets payd. He fights for money afterall

 

[LEMONZEST]

I don't think he's missed but I also don't think he's ever taken a fight on 6 days notice either.

I guess my point is that he was probably honest with them about what he weighed and how much he needed to cut. If he misses it's not the knock it would normally be. "Free pass" is probably too strong, but I think he knows that if he misses they are gonna forgive it.

Word. Yeah that makes sense. If that is the case then it is a pretty funny flex for him to publicize the fact that he isn't even trying. I am very intrigued by this main event, can't wait.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Intentionally taking a fight to not win a belt?

Like Mike was saying, when the fight was offered to Mas he probably had a good idea about what was possible in such a short time weight wise. There is no point trying to do something impossible and draining yourself to the point where you will almost certainly lose.

To Mike's other point, Mas is less concerned with belts and more concerned with just winning and making money. I think he would much rather miss weight and get the W, than push himself to do a near impossible cut only to get his ass kicked.

Making weight or not was probably a foregone conclusion given the tight time frame.

EDIT: Also coming in heavy could be a strategic move to give him some extra clout in the grappling.

 

[Sauna]

Just watched pics about the octagon. The sun advantage is real. Just as important as high ground in classic warfare.

Anyone have any toughts about the Sun?

 

[Sono07]

Yeah, if he is trying to cut weight, Pizza isn't the answer.

I agree, I just think the guy knows how to pose for a picture. Considering the pay gap him missing weight might get Usman a bigger check.

 

[jungleln]

Just watched pics about the octagon. The sun advantage is real. Just as important as high ground in classic warfare.

Anyone have any toughts about the Sun?

If they were fighting outside, you would be right but they are not. The outdoor octagon is for show.

 

[TrueAscension]

Sportsline :


Kamaru Usman (-300) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+240): Masvidal by TKO

Give it up to the UFC for falling backward into the main event for which people have been begging. It may not be the stylistic matchup that Gilbert Burns provides, but Masvidal is a deadly striker with strong takedown defense. The short notice provides very little interest to me, given that this is the opponent Masvidal has been training to fight for the last seven months. Usman showed his improvements in the striking game against Colby Covington in December and moved his camp to Colorado in order to work with striking specialist Trevor Wittman for this event. I just don't think Usman is going to want to stand and trade with Masvidal, so expect him to take the challenger into the cage, much like he did against Tyron Woodley in his title win.

Masvidal will put up a better fight than Woodley at staying off the cage and keeping the fight at a distance. This will be an incredible showdown of athletes peaking at the right time in their careers. There's something special going on with Masvidal right now that makes it incredibly hard to bet against him. He makes so much sense, especially at these plus odds. If you can, get those KO/TKO props in as well, because it's his best path to victory.

Alexander Volkanovski (-240) vs. Max Holloway (+200): Volkanovski by decision

What has changed in seven months? Nothing. While he may lack the finishing power against an elite and potential all-time great in Holloway, Volkanovski and his team have the perfect game plan to take apart the former champ with calf and leg kicks. This fight will be all about who can score more points in a striker's delight, and it's tough to bet against the guy who just pitched a perfect game to take the belt away from the Hawaiian. It may be tough to beat the same fighter twice in a row at an elite level, but Volkanovski gets it done here.

Petr Yan (-240) vs. Jose Aldo (+200): Yan by TKO

Listen, I love Jose Aldo. He is a legend with a storied career and still deserves to compete on the highest level of the sport. But he should not be fighting in this spot for a bantamweight title. Yan has grinded through six wins since joining the UFC in 2018 at 135 pounds, and his last three victories were impressive. John Dodson, Jimmie Rivera and Urijah Faber may not have been top-tier contenders, but Yan did what he was supposed to in those spots. Meanwhile, Aldo has lost two straight, including his debut at 135 pounds last December, despite what UFC president Dana White or anyone else wants to say about how he looked or what the judges should have done.

Aldo still shows flashes of the fighter of old, and he could play spoiler here for a division brimming with elite fighters who are ready to take the crown, but I just can't see him getting past Yan. Especially when he has a hard enough time getting down to 135 pounds. Look for Yan to control the pace and distance with his kicks before setting up the finish in the second or third round.

Jessica Andrade (+170) vs. Rose Namajunas (-200): Namajunas by decision

This is a really tricky spot to make a pick. On one hand, you have Namajunas returning from a 14-month layoff during which she contemplated retirement after losing to Andrade. She is a different type of fighter who is very open about her mental-health battles, and she carries that emotion with her through training camps and fights. She also is dealing with the death of two family members from COVID-19, which partially delayed this rematch from happening sooner.

Then you have Andrade, who is coming off a vicious TKO loss against Weili Zhang to drop the belt. Many also consider the win in her previous fight a bit flukey, given the nature of the TKO was a bit random with Namajunas getting dropped on her neck while trying to hold a submission. Andrade still is a powerhouse striker despite her short stature for the division, but if the first fight proved anything to us, it's that Namajunas is much more fluid in her movements and strike avoidance. Look for "Thug Rose" to keep a similar game plan on the feet with quick jabs in and out before trying to take things to the ground, where she is more comfortable scoring points.

Amanda Ribas (-800) vs. Paige VanZant (+550): Ribas by submission

Look, the line is what it is on this fight for a reason. There's no need to get cute here and overthink it. Ribas is the better fighter. VanZant is coming off yet another arm injury that delayed this matchup from happening in March. She's also on the last fight of her contract and ready to explore free agency. While most might say that's extra motivation, I think it lands VanZant in bad spots in this one by pressing too much.

If you're worried about getting no value on this fight at such a high price, look to pair Ribas and someone from the prelims (Jiri Prochazka at +135 is very tempting) in a parlay to bring the value back. Ribas should take this fight via submission if you can get a good number on the method of victory.

 

[Chris Wang]

Did Volkanovski change camp / head coach? Thought he was training at the same gym as Adesanya / Hooker with Eugene?

 

[matthew55]

Yet you don't explain how?

Interesting.

There's a reason online casinos hand out bonuses like candy -- it's to entice you to put your money into their casino -- not to give you an advantage to make more money.

Do you even remember you're original reply? You offered no explanation, just said it was dumb, interesting. I use sportsbook.ag bonuses all the time because the rollover requirement isn't absurd and it has worked out plenty of times. If you don't know what you're talking about, just scroll on.

 

[matthew55]

Melo looks good in stand up and karol ate a ton of strikes from a tiny grappler. House on Melo. Karol is Jessicas main sparring partner so if somebody is a litle shot its karol



Jorge is a puppet master. Hes in best shape ever. Fooling everybody like he did asker.

I think people are wiki capping Melo/ Rosa, and blindly betting Rosa. Melo has had 2 tough fights against way different fighters stylistically then Rosa, who like you alluded to, is a punching bag. I wish US books had FOTN bets because this is one I think is being slept on. Melo is plodding, always going forward throwing hard shots, while Rosa will stand right there and throw everything she has into each kick and punch. I'll probably take some of the under as well as Melo.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Can Henry stuff takedowns or get up from bottom of Mak? I think it'll get easier as the fight goes on since Mak gasses consistently.

 

[MikeK1989]

Maia got Masvidal in terrible situations because Masvidal had to worry about protecting his neck (and other limbs). He doesn't have that same fear with Kamaru. They're incomparable situations

Whole heartedly disagree. First off you defend takedowns. Masvidal couldnt do that very well at all. Second you start defending for subs which Masvidal did do very well. If Tyron Woodley cant stop Usman there is no fucking way Masvidal can. I'm sorry that's just how it goes.

Masvidal has a punchers chance but he ain't stopping shit

 

[mkess101]

Whole heartedly disagree. First off you defend takedowns. Masvidal couldnt do that very well at all. Second you start defending for subs which Masvidal did do very well. If Tyron Woodley cant stop Usman there is no fucking way Masvidal can. I'm sorry that's just how it goes.

Masvidal has a punchers chance but he ain't stopping shit

That's not really how TD's work when comparing Maia and Usman though.

Maia is a bjj guy who perfected his style of wrestling over a long career. Without getting TOO much in the weeds, Maia secures a lot of TD's because the threat of him taking the back while still standing is there after he shoots his single and walks the pipe up into his opponent's hip. Because he's such a master at using that position to creep his way around to a back take, guys are afraid to use a lot of the counterwrestling techniques that work against traditional wrestlers.

 

[mkess101]

Oezdemir is a HUGE step up obviously, but have to put a little something on Prochazka rd 1 at +550. 26 wins, 23 in the fist round? Even against cans, the guy obviously has power and isn't afraid to go after the early finish. Even if you take away the couple of Rizin fights that have longer first rounds where he won later in the round, that's still 21 of 26 wins coming within 5 minutes of the start of the fight.

For that matter, u1.0 at +205 maybe has value too.

 

[Macaque]

Good catch fellows, I only saw the pattern. So much for my idea xD. I still say Jorge is trolling.

Oh yeah, he’s definitely messing around lol

 

[theTKDguy]

Oezdemir is a HUGE step up obviously, but have to put a little something on Prochazka rd 1 at +550. 26 wins, 23 in the fist round? Even against cans, the guy obviously has power and isn't afraid to go after the early finish. Even if you take away the couple of Rizin fights that have longer first rounds where he won later in the round, that's still 21 of 26 wins coming within 5 minutes of the start of the fight.

For that matter, u1.0 at +205 maybe has value too.

Oezdemir can put him out quick too, the under is good