UFC 264 | Poirier vs McGregor

[Deleted member 510399]

Why would Ahkmedov be able to take Tavares down easily? Tavares has probably the best takedown defence in the devision. 80% take down defence against a guy who has a round of gas

Look at his resume, though. He hasn't fought good wrestlers.

The last competent one he faced was Romero in 2014, and Romero landed 7 takedowns.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Dont think so

reasoning?

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Why would Ahkmedov be able to take Tavares down easily? Tavares has probably the best takedown defence in the devision. 80% take down defence against a guy who has a round of gas

TDD stats are one of the least useful without context. They love using it when showing mma to the public.
One fighter may have defended desperate takedown attempts from a desperate fighter, which means the TDD stat is no longer that useful, or a fighter may have stuffed 8/8 takedowns but those takedowns was perhaps all single legs, while a new fighter may mainly use bodylocks and trip takedowns.
80% or 100% imo means barely anything.

I think this is why there is debate among bettors if stats are useful or not, but I think the truth is some stats, sometimes can be useful, but some stats are worthless or even misleading.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

TDD stats are one of the least useful without context. They love using it when showing mma to the public.
One fighter may have defended desperate takedown attempts from a desperate fighter, which means the TDD stat is no longer that useful, or a fighter may have stuffed 8/8 takedowns but those takedowns was perhaps all single legs, while a new fighter may mainly use bodylocks and trip takedowns.
80% or 100% imo means barely anything.

I think this us why there is debate among bettors if stats are useful or not, but I think the truth is some stats, sometimes can be useful, but some stats are worthless or even misleading.

Stats nerds from a sport like baseball would absolutely laugh at MMA stats. They're useful as an outside metric to further add some context, but even then, like you alluded to, they often require serious context.

 

[2020Tracked]

TDD stats are one of the least useful without context. They love using it when showing mma to the public.
One fighter may have defended desperate takedown attempts from a desperate fighter, which means the TDD stat is no longer that useful, or a fighter may have stuffed 8/8 takedowns but those takedowns was perhaps all single legs, while a new fighter may mainly use bodylocks and trip takedowns.
80% or 100% imo means barely anything.

I think this us why there is debate among bettors if stats are useful or not, but I think the truth is some stats, sometimes can be useful, but some stats are worthless or even misleading.

I'm not relying on the stat, that's just whatever. Tavares has excellent takedown defence, and it shows in the tape. Not saying Ahkmedov isn't playable at the right price but I don't think a 3 round wrestling clinic is on the cards

 

[Val Dewar]

I'm not saying I'm betting any side on this fight other than ITD which is free money. This is simply my overwhelming feeling that this fight will be rigged.

ITD isn't a lock at all. Dustin is known for durability and 5 round wars and Conor went the distance with Nate last time he had a rematch, Nate is not as good as Dustin and the durability is comparable.

 

[Val Dewar]

Nothing really jumping out at me right now. A lot of value slipped away

I did manage to get wonder boy at +135

hoping for some favorable line movement in the next two weeks

Where on God's green earth did you bet wb at +135?? Do you mean -? Cuz he opened like -200 and has fallen to -140 since then, is -137 in a few places.

But I love wb in this one. Burns hinted at wanting to test himself by striking with wb which he cannot win striking unless he randomly lands his overhand right, and even then I trust wbs chin to a decent extent.

Burns wrestling is not great. If he gets wb down then it's real trouble as he has amazing Bjj, but WBs TDD is great. I don't see how Burns wins a decision here, it's KO or SUB or bust, and he has like a 30% chance of that, if I'm being generous. I cap this at like -220 for WB, so I'm all over -140

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Where on God's green earth did you bet wb at +135?? Do you mean -? Cuz he opened like -200 and has fallen to -140 since then, is -137 in a few places.

But I love wb in this one. Burns hinted at wanting to test himself by striking with wb which he cannot win striking unless he randomly lands his overhand right, and even then I trust wbs chin to a decent extent.

Burns wrestling is not great. If he gets wb down then it's real trouble as he has amazing Bjj, but WBs TDD is great. I don't see how Burns wins a decision here, it's KO or SUB or bust, and he has like a 30% chance of that, if I'm being generous. I cap this at like -220 for WB, so I'm all over -140

Bfo said he opened at +135 but I think it was even higher. Betonline

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Where on God's green earth did you bet wb at +135?? Do you mean -? Cuz he opened like -200 and has fallen to -140 since then, is -137 in a few places.

But I love wb in this one. Burns hinted at wanting to test himself by striking with wb which he cannot win striking unless he randomly lands his overhand right, and even then I trust wbs chin to a decent extent.

Burns wrestling is not great. If he gets wb down then it's real trouble as he has amazing Bjj, but WBs TDD is great. I don't see how Burns wins a decision here, it's KO or SUB or bust, and he has like a 30% chance of that, if I'm being generous. I cap this at like -220 for WB, so I'm all over -140

He opened at like +145 and got hammered right away, a day later the odds were more or less where they are now

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I've been pretty right about most of Hardy's UFC fights so far(cashed big on Tybura, big on Hardy KO vs Greene, and big on Vokov). Tuivasa is a huge step down in competition for him. He looked phenomenal in round 1 against Tybura, and gassed as always.

But Tuivasa doesn't have the best gas tank either. Hardy +120, as much as I hate to admit, has some value. And his decision prop as well, because there's a good chance if this fight gets out of r1, both fighters will be too tired to finish each other and we'll see a sloppy low output fight in rds 2/3. I don't have access to props yet, but if it's +600 or something crazy, I'm taking a stab.

I blocked of my mind most of Hardy fights but does he posses a takedown threat?
Tuivasa should have a considerable striking advantage. Is mostly his non-existent grappling that loses him most of the fights.

Yeah but the Khaos fight was super close, I remember Khaos outvoluming him but Pereira landed some takedowns and stole the decision.

If Pereira fights seriously I would put my money on him. Dude is really good when he sticks to the fundamentals and does not gas doing backflips all over the cage. TBH as a MMA fan I'm rooting for the 2nd to happen.
He also seems like a durable guy while Niko has been TKOed in 3 of his last 6.
I only worry about the difference in level of competition. Pereira last 2 wins were over decent but not great competition. Price has been there with way better fighters.

 

[Sono07]

I might have to pass on the main event. I counted The Diamond out last time but I definitely won't do that again.

 

[Val Dewar]

What about Burns? i am liking Burns to get the win.

I've been trying to find someone who likes burns here because I wanna hear the opposite argument. Why do you think Burns wins?

 

[Val Dewar]

Ok good on you. I find it is always pretty difficult to get a bet in during the fight, they suspend the lines so many times.

Most books only allow bets between rounds so it csn be hard, but you might wanna try BetOnline cuz they let you live bet throughout the first round, most of the second, and between 2nd and 3rd.

 

[Val Dewar]

So my value spots pre-tape:

Wonderboy ML -140
Wonderboy/Burns GTD -110
Tuivasa/Hardy GTD +285 (5d)
Topuria -3.5 spread (odds not out yet tho)
Gonna sprinkle on Dustin r3, r4, r5, and by decision probably, cuz if he makes it a war he wins it by one of those methods and they're good odds.
Lean Aldana -125

 

[matthew55]

wtf happened to these threads, half of it arguing about stupid shit

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Having a live betting strategy, if you know both fighters very well to me makes it far easier to spot a good solid livebet spot.
I´ve not said that I´m the only one who thought of betting DP after round 1. I bet him last time around without any issues.
I´ve found big favorites takes a very long time before they become dogs, even when they should had been a dog long ago. A good example of this is Edmen vs Brunson where Brunson was still around +200 despite Edmen being completely gassed out by the end of round one, having arms up on the cage etc. Even when he started losing it took a while. This may be due to bookies not wanting to change the line, or because a lot of people think they get value now by betting a big fav at much better odds, which can be very deceiving imo.
I don´t think the line on DP will suddenly make him a huge fav. Especially not if he loses the first round. Thats why cardio in livebetting are the best spots, as it seem to always take so long for odds to become fairly accurate.
Betting DP before the fight is definitely an option. As said you could split it and bet some prebet and wait for some for livebet.

From what I´ve seen there simply isn´t enough sharp money to counter a fighter winning a round despite being gassed. Another example of that is Sara Mcmann vs Pena. Mcmann is a notorious gasser, but she pretty much always wins round 1.
If you struggle getting bets in live, then yes definitely I agree bet prebet. But if its not an issue, I like to wait. Of course sometimes you do miss out on a line, or sometimes they don´t even offer livebet if its the early fights, so betting prebet is not a bad idea. Personally I´ll likely livebet this one though depending on how the lines changes.

Don’t disagree but to the earlier point I often have a hard time hitting live lines even w a good setup. Maybe I’m doing it wrong but rarely rely on a LB strategy, especially if I have any kinda lean. I guess it’s great in theory but practically it’s often hard to pull off correctly.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

I blocked of my mind most of Hardy fights but does he posses a takedown threat?
Tuivasa should have a considerable striking advantage. Is mostly his non-existent grappling that loses him most of

Hardy poses absolutely 0 takedown threat. His ground game is non existent.

If Tuivasa, with his limited ground game, takes Hardy down, Hardy may be in trouble. That's how bad it is.

Hardy has faster hands, and more precise striking.

Tuivasa has more power and is more of a brawler. Hardy is surprisingly a lot more technical and reserved than he used to be.

I'm always looking to fade Hardy, but I rate Tuivasa so low.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

I'm not relying on the stat, that's just whatever. Tavares has excellent takedown defence, and it shows in the tape. Not saying Ahkmedov isn't playable at the right price but I don't think a 3 round wrestling clinic is on the cards

I'm banking on him being able to win 2 rounds, and survive round 3.

Akhmedov is incredibly durable, even if he's gassed in r3(which he will be if it gets there), I think he can survive.

 

[longway]

Hardy poses absolutely 0 takedown threat. His ground game is non existent.

If Tuivasa, with his limited ground game, takes Hardy down, Hardy may be in trouble. That's how bad it is.

Hardy has faster hands, and more precise striking.

Tuivasa has more power and is more of a brawler. Hardy is surprisingly a lot more technical and reserved than he used to be.

I'm always looking to fade Hardy, but I rate Tuivasa so low.

Im thinking R2/R3 prop on Tuivasa or ITD. If Hardy gets him out if there it will be R1. Hardy gasses hard when he is pressured and that combined with calf kicks will probably make him fold, even though I think Hardy is the better striker overall.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Im thinking R2/R3 prop on Tuivasa or ITD. If Hardy gets him out if there it will be R1. Hardy gasses hard when he is pressured and that combined with calf kicks will probably make him fold, even though I think Hardy is the better striker overall.

I'm not sold on Tuivasa's cardio either, but I don't think anyone can have worse cardio than Hardy does.

Tuivasa's best PTV would be to chop at Hardy's leg, survive his onslaught, and take him down in rounds 2/3.

You don't really need a wrestling game to get Hardy down when he's that tired. And as we saw in the Tybura fight, he puts up absolutely no resistance off of his back.

But trusting a fighter like Tuivasa to fight smart and do something he doesn't ever do is risky.