UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane - Discussion Thread

Black Paladin said:
Not that it can't happen, but I imagine if Lewis is on the ground, and someone starts to put some submission attempt on him, HE JUST GETS UP.
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haha for sure and I love him for it but there’s a lot of subs for him to avoid that don’t even involve the ground
 
I believe Gane will get the finish,but a lot of that is on Lewis,it's harder to knockout someone who doesn't want to fight,so it will be on Lewis is he gonna go there just to survive at some point or guns blazing,but I don't believe he's gonna last all 5 rounds
 
mkess101 said:
For those betting Gane decision based on him fighting safe, etc---ask yourselves: do you REALLY think Lewis is gonna hang in there for 25 minutes??? REALLY? Do you think he even WANTS to?

He's gone into the 4th round a couple times in his career but against a skilled, accurate guy like Gane he's going to be eating a ton of strikes. I find it INCREDIBLY hard to believe that we don't see either Lewis fold at some point (likely) or find that home run shut and put Gane away (less likely). I like paying juice on u3.5 or u4.5 way WAY better than rolling the dice on a decision prop in a fight that involves an overweight HW who's never gone 25 minutes one time in his life.
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This may seem silly but fighting in the main event in his home town makes me think Lewis is coming out swinging to put on a show. I think it's a ko or getting finished after gassing. I'm not feeling the decision props after the staredowns
 
TrueAscension said:
Can't help but think Chiesa tries to get up close and personal and gets snatched up into a sub or TKO'd. Chiesa has looked like a world beater no doubt and he's huge for the division but I just think Luque is really something special and is getting better and better. He's hittable but Chiesa won't exploit be able to exploit that. I only see one PTV for Chiesa which would be holding him up against the cage/clinching/wrestlefucking but I just think that, over the course of 3 rounds, Luque will catch him or snatch him
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agreed. Luque is an absolute savage. Never a boring fight. I don’t see chiesa just waltzing in repeatedly for a takedown without taking some serious damage. Luque has been in wars and has better cardio late than chiesa IMO. Luque NSC is a crazy line to me.
 
carolinagrapple said:
This may seem silly but fighting in the main event in his home town makes me think Lewis is coming out swinging to put on a show. I think it's a ko or getting finished after gassing. I'm not feeling the decision props after the staredowns
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Nah I think you're right and that might play into it too. But even without that, I just don't think he's ever interested in absorbing abuse over 25 minutes. Like Chiesa (albeit they are COMPLETELY different fighters), Lewis knows exactly what he is. A big, powerful guy with some skill that's good at knocking people out. Physically strong enough to sometimes power out of bad spots on the mat, but with a limited gas tank and zero interest in a long, drawn out and technical fight.

I would be REALLY surprised if this sees the cards. Hell I'd be pretty damn surprised if it sees rd 4.
 
Doc R said:
agreed. Luque is an absolute savage. Never a boring fight. I don’t see chiesa just waltzing in repeatedly for a takedown without taking some serious damage. Luque has been in wars and has better cardio late than chiesa IMO. Luque NSC is a crazy line to me.
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I don't see Chiesa really having to "waltz in" for TD's here. Does Luque even know how to do anything but come forward? I can't remember seeing Luque really ever look to counter, etc. IIRC, it helped Edwards secure TD's pretty easily because Luque just closed the distance for him (yes, quite awhile ago but Luque has never really changed his style and comes forward nonstop now just like then). Luqe also slowed vs Perry in their war, and vs Barberena too (although so did Brian and Luque found enough to get the late KO).

All that said, I think that you are right in that the key is whether Vincente lands big shots as he comes at Chiesa or whether that just allows Chiesa to wrap him up and drag him to the mat. Mike is incredibly heavy with his top control and doesn't take chances that give up position. So one TD may well secure the entire round for him.

I do think Luque NSC is the way to play it if you like Vincente though. He's more likely to finish than Chiesa is imo.
 
Been a Luque bettor for a long time, but really don't like how easily he gives up the clinch (especially body locks, Chiesa's bread and butter) when reviewing tape. Luque's weakness is Chiesa's A-game, which happens to be a very neutralizing strategy that has a higher probability than landing the big shot or sub.

Of course Luque can hit hard and may very well KO Chiesa or stun + darce him, but going off his tendencies and the odds of him avoiding the clinch, I don't feel comfortable betting more than a small hedge on him

mkess101 said:
I don't see Chiesa really having to "waltz in" for TD's here. Does Luque even know how to do anything but come forward?
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He actually has a tendency to back himself to the cage when pressured...again, right into Chiesa's wheelhouse. Nearly every time Luque gets taken down it's from a body lock or he will jump a guillotine to try and defend.
 
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Black Paladin said:
Not that it can't happen, but I imagine if Lewis is on the ground, and someone starts to put some submission attempt on him, HE JUST GETS UP.
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I touched on this earlier in the week, but Lewis frequently gives up his back to pop back up every single time. That's why I stabbed Gane RNC @ +8000.

But at the same time, his "get the fuck up" game that looks like it has zero technique, actually has some technique to it.

He has like 2-3 really good moves that he goes to to get up, and has drilled them immensely. Even when Tybura briefly took his back, Lewis noticed that Tybura had his hooks in, but Tybura's arms were going for the choke instead of securing position. Because of this, Lewis used his free hands to grab Tybura's feet to create space to get him off of his back.

However, most of us who are banking on a Gane sub, are envisioning it while Lewis is gassed. In round 3, when Derrick finished Tybura, Tybura was also gassed as fuck. Gane has way better cardio, so any mistake Derrick makes is far more dangerous in rounds 3 and beyond.
 
Gotta pass on Kape after that weight miss. Hard to tell what happened with that. Weird, wasn't Ode the one dropping down a weight class?

Anyone think Luque having Burns as a training partner helps here. Burns is one of the better grapplers at 170, I have to think they have prepared for a grapple heavy fight. Chiesa is bigger than I was expecting though.
 
Black Paladin said:
Not that it can't happen, but I imagine if Lewis is on the ground, and someone starts to put some submission attempt on him, HE JUST GETS UP.
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Depends on how tired he is though. I agree early on that could happen. But about midway through Rd 3 when he's breathing hard...IDK. I think if Gane takes his back later in the fight or locks in an arm triangle, it might be curtains. All that brute strength that Lewis has may not be there when his muscles aren't getting enough oxygen.
 
Orion said:
Been a Luque bettor for a long time, but really don't like how easily he gives up the clinch (especially body locks, Chiesa's bread and butter) when reviewing tape. Luque's weakness is Chiesa's A-game, which happens to be a very neutralizing strategy that has a higher probability than landing the big shot or sub.

Of course Luque can hit hard and may very well KO Chiesa or stun + darce him, but going off his tendencies and the odds of him avoiding the clinch, I don't feel comfortable betting more than a small hedge on him



He actually has a tendency to back himself to the cage when pressured...again, right into Chiesa's wheelhouse. Nearly every time Luque gets taken down it's from a body lock or he will jump a guillotine to try and defend.
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I'm trying to remember who pressured him. Perry a bit? I always see Luque coming forward, it's just embedded in my brain that's what he does.
 
mkess101 said:
I'm trying to remember who pressured him. Perry a bit? I always see Luque coming forward, it's just embedded in my brain that's what he does.
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Ya I mean we’re obviously on opposite sides of this fight but we agree here. Chiesa isn’t going to be moving forward on Luque imo unless he’s trying to get shadow realmed. I actually think we see a more technical fight out of Luque than we have in the past, trying to keep some sort of distance until he can find the kill shot. If the fight goes to the ground, he’s live for a submission from nearly any position.
That said, this could be Chiesa’s coming out party as a bonavide threat to the division. It’s a fascinating matchup and I see both sides really clearly but I just think at near evens (the lines moved a little more in Luques favor today), the play is the guy with more ways to win. I think leg kicks could come into play a lot here and elbows from the clinch as well but then again we could just see Luque get ragdolled around the octagon.
Burns should have Luque prepared here but I am definitely curious who they put in there with Chiesa to prepare for Luque because there aren’t many people (if any) with his speed, power, and dual Ko/Sub threat in the UFC
 
So I regularly watch YouTube cappers, not to blindly tail them, but I just like hearing all angles and to catch anything I might have missed on tape.

I just watched Hype Check's breakdown:

The dude on here claims he knows someone that is very close to Chiesa, and that Chiesa has the ability to hand pick every fight of his, and does so, turning down a lot of fights in the process.

That's interesting if true.
 
Cyril Gane Most significant strikes landed at -275 seems relatively safe to me.
He has double the sig strikes as Lewis.
Lewis hasn't knocked someone out in round 1 since 14 fights ago Gabriel Gonzaga 2016, who avrg slightly less sig strikes as Lewis, late in his career. He is also known to conserve energy from time to time.
Thoughts homies?
(i think i posted this in wrong thread "Sportsbook mma")
 
FengShuiMMA said:
Cyril Gane Most significant strikes landed at -275 seems relatively safe to me.
He has double the sig strikes as Lewis.
Lewis hasn't knocked someone out in round 1 since 14 fights ago Gabriel Gonzaga 2016, who avrg slightly less sig strikes as Lewis, late in his career. He is also known to conserve energy from time to time.
Thoughts homies?
(i think i posted this in wrong thread "Sportsbook mma")
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man that's sounds like an easy win
 
Gane sub on bet365 in round 3 is +6600,round 4 and 5 subs are +10000,won't hurt to put a few bucks on that
 
let's hear everyone's longshot plays..I'm goin with Tecia TKO and ITD as well as Karolina ITD and parlaying both ITD for around 40/1 ..Tecia has looked awesome lately, albeit against lesser competition, but she also has some added motivation it seems against Hill. Karolina has fought the best and had some big moments in those fights, big step down imo with Penne.
 
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