UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal

Interesting main event with Covington being the biggest i do see where Masivdal could be a valid underdog.
Holland vs Alex Oliveira.

I had being fading Holland as much possible and good thing i did in the last few fight cards. Not sure what kind of Holland we would be seeing in UFC 272.
Not sure either what type of Alex Oliveira would return to the octagon due to the issues he had before.

For betting i would stay clear of that one.
Jalin Turner looks good on this fight card i think he could pull off the win. I do like the underdog as well.
 
Jonathan Utah said:
I’m looking at putting money on Tim Elliott? Am I crazy?
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Haven't watched tape but tagir always seems to be in close fights. Bruno Silva and his last fighting with that Brazilian guy. Tagir doesn't do enough for me to warrant a hefty price tag. Probably still wins though.
 
Jonathan Utah said:
I’m looking at putting money on Tim Elliott? Am I crazy?
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Elliott is stupid and was getting controlled on the ground by Nicolau. Tagir will win comfortably on the ground and I wouldn't say his hands are necessarily worse than Elliot's, they are effective enough to round out his wrestling. Tagir tends to wrestlefuck without doing a lot of damage which leads to controversial decisions that he tends to win. I had him 30-27 in both of his "close" fights and his sole loss to Zhalgas was a hometown robbery that he should have comfortably won.
 
Post 2 Decision said:
It's essentially a middleweight vs a lightweight @ welterweight, and Cowboy Oliveira hasn't been able to take a punch for years now.

I'm pretty confident in Holland in this spot, and I easily faded him against Brunson & Vettori, so it's not like I'm some Holland fanboy
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One other thing to add not all weight drops are unsuccessful. Jared Cannanier was getting beat at LHW and then dropped down to middleweight and is next for the title. Most recent Jonathan Pearce who is a 170 fighting at 155lb , a guy like Holland with his skinny body will have no problem weight cutting. I think this only affects guys like Costa who balloons down from lhw becuz of his size and food intake. Holland fought in the amateurs at 170lb so its nothing new.
 
Joonc said:
Yes. Thats all that a grappler needs to do against Barboza and he executed it perfectly. It was one of the most dominant 3 round performances in UFC history, one of the only fights I can recall possibly being 30-24. And its hard for me to see mitchell replicating that.
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You can't see Mitchell running at Barboza wildly and forcing a takedown against the fence?
 
I think I'm on Barbosa at plus money. He should be able to stop a takedown or two and with Bryce coming off a hand injury the stand up may be one sided. Great live betting spot for sure
 
2020Tracked said:
You can't see Mitchell running at Barboza wildly and forcing a takedown against the fence?
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It is possible that he could show up with the right gameplan but he hasn't shown in it his fights. He is a bit underwhelming in his older fights, and in all of his most recent fights he hasn't met anyone who could pose real opposition to his takedowns which are always from the center. In the second round of his fight against Fili, Fili managed to stuff his initial takedowns and then Mitchell just stood around striking on the outside for 3 minutes, before shooting again from the center. That's a really bad look if that happens again against someone like Barboza who will absolutely murder him in that kind of exchange.
 
2020Tracked said:
You can't see Mitchell running at Barboza wildly and forcing a takedown against the fence?
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I urge both of you to rewatch Edson fight with Khabib again and you'll see that there was two or three times when Edson rose back up, and he stuffed like 6 or 7 tds from Khabib.

1. we need to mention about Bryce. He is not Khabib. Bryce should have lost to Tyler Diamond who grapple fked him for 8 (4 each)mins in rounds 2 and 3 . He spent time in his back and got reversed. This is the difference between him and a good wrestler like Khabib or any other . Also he was tapped in the ultimate fighter by Brad Katona if you add those two losses plus his close fight with Jose mariscal , you have a 12-3 fighter with losses against average guys no one has ever heard from since then. In all those fights he got reversed on the ground and lost top Ctrl.

2. Weak sub rating. In all his fights against good opponents he fails his sub attempts. His last fight he tried 5 sub attempts and failed all 5x. He has a lose technique when trying to synch in subs. And Edson is a black belt in bjj so he should have adequate sub defense to thwart his sub attacks.
3. Bryce striking is a mountain high different to Khabib. No way he is going to put Edson on the back foot Bryce is going to be looking for the slip, but Edson has more than just hands. His kicks hit very hard and if he was able to hit Khabib hard with those, Bryce is getting hit with those.

While Bryce is a solid wrestler, he doesn't have a wrestling background. This is what separates him from Kevin Lee and Khabib who was a sambo champ. Bryce has gotten out grappled before 3 x in his career, but has been gifted two decisions for some reason, but the Jose fight was close.
I think Edson is going to light him up like a Christmas tree. I just have a hard time seeing how Bryce is the favorite here when he struggles with mid level regional guys but will dominate Edson who beat guys like Pettis and Dariush. I think we are going remember who Barboza is.

As Roy Jones once said: 'yall musta forgot '
 
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After further inspection on Elliott vs Ulanbekov I think I might be passing. Elliott is more solid on the ground than I had previously thought, him getting controlled by Nicolau was more a low IQ move from him thinking that he was up 2 rounds than it was him being deficient in grappling. I still would like to fade his brain but Elliot is a dangerous fighter who has given everyone he has ever fought a very tough out. Even if I think Tagir won those "close" fights 30-27, the truth is that most people found it controversial and more importantly so did the judges. Its hard to say there is value at -265 when this has a good chance of becoming another controversial decision. I still feel the line is justified based on their brains alone but I no longer think it is a lock.
 
Elliott by decision is probably the best value play on this fight tbh. Don't think it's too likely but I do think the value probably will be there depending on the odds.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I urge both of you to rewatch Edson fight with Khabib again and you'll see that there was two or three times when Edson rose back up, and he stuffed like 6 or 7 tds from Khabib.

1. we need to mention about Bryce. He is not Khabib. Bryce should have lost to Tyler Diamond who grapple fked him for 8 (4 each)mins in rounds 2 and 3 . He spent time in his back and got reversed. This is the difference between him and a good wrestler like Khabib or any other . Also he was tapped in the ultimate fighter by Brad Katona if you add those two losses plus his close fight with Jose mariscal , you have a 12-3 fighter with losses against average guys no one has ever heard from since then. In all those fights he got reversed on the ground and lost top Ctrl.

2. Weak sub rating. In all his fights against good opponents he fails his sub attempts. His last fight he tried 5 sub attempts and failed all 5x. He has a lose technique when trying to synch in subs. And Edson is a black belt in bjj so he should have adequate sub defense to thwart his sub attacks.
3. Bryce striking is a mountain high different to Khabib. No way he is going to put Edson on the back foot Bryce is going to be looking for the slip, but Edson has more than just hands. His kicks hit very hard and if he was able to hit Khabib hard with those, Bryce is getting hit with those.

While Bryce is a solid wrestler, he doesn't have a wrestling background. This is what separates him from Kevin Lee and Khabib who was a sambo champ. Bryce has gotten out grappled before 3 x in his career, but has been gifted two decisions for some reason, but the Jose fight was close.
I think Edson is going to light him up like a Christmas tree. I just have a hard time seeing how Bryce is the favorite here when he struggles with mid level regional guys but will dominate Edson who beat guys like Pettis and Dariush. I think we are going remember who Barboza is.

As Roy Jones once said: 'yall musta forgot '
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For fast twitch strikers like Barboza he’s right at the age when they start declining. Add into that how many times he’s been on the receiving end of absolute beatings which doesn’t help. Couple that fact with Mitchell being in his physical prime and I can see the line being where it is.
 
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Anyone think Jorge can win? Seems like so many are dismissive of him
 
Joonc said:
After further inspection on Elliott vs Ulanbekov I think I might be passing. Elliott is more solid on the ground than I had previously thought, him getting controlled by Nicolau was more a low IQ move from him thinking that he was up 2 rounds than it was him being deficient in grappling. I still would like to fade his brain but Elliot is a dangerous fighter who has given everyone he has ever fought a very tough out. Even if I think Tagir won those "close" fights 30-27, the truth is that most people found it controversial and more importantly so did the judges. Its hard to say there is value at -265 when this has a good chance of becoming another controversial decision. I still feel the line is justified based on their brains alone but I no longer think it is a lock.
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I don't think Elliott is a low-iq fighter overall, I think that was just a really dumb 3rd round(I bet him that fight so I'm still salty). Also, Krause came out and said it was his fault and he gave bad advice, which he did. That being said, I don't think he has the physicality at this point in his career to hang in this fight. I might still take a small shot due to the odds but I think he loses a clear decision in this one.

As for Edson/Bryce. I keep thinking Edson is done, and he keeps surprising me. By all rights he should be done. Mitchell has good wrestling obviously, but his top pressure is really sloppy and inconsistent. His submissions were against guys with no clue. He's a one-trick pony, and if Edson can take out his legs a little to slow him down, I think he has a great chance. I'll see if the odds move but I think this fight is more of a -120/100 than -150/130.
 
StewDogg11 said:
For fast twitch strikers like Barboza he’s right at the age when they start declining. Add into that how many times he’s been on the receiving end of absolute beatings which doesn’t help. Couple that fact with Mitchell being in his physical prime and I can the line being where it is.
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Shane Burgos fight was not that long ago. He looked like a spring chicken and got the ko on a tough guy. Do you think Mitchell can eat those same shots? i think edson rattles him and all that wrestling gets diminish when a fighter is hurt. Barboza was given a shit decision for Ige and Paul and can make the argument for being 4-1 at the age of 34-36. The last two cons for Mitchell are his layoff , a year and half ago and Edson has fought twice. Mitchell uses a lot of gas spamming takedowns too, this is a result of him not knowing how to strike very well on the feet. At the end you got a guy with solid takedowns but soso top control which is not sufficient enough to keep Barboza down forever.
 
I see Tim Elliott being a popular dog this week, but why?

His striking is really bad, outside of the low kicks what will he have for Tagir standing? Has this really weird way of 'feinting' which is just sort spazzing his hands around infront of him but there seems to be no rhyme or reason behind it, it's not setting anything up. Tagir should be able to land lots of straight punches, anything down the middle will be good.

I think the scrambles are competitive, and they could really come down to whoever lands in the more dominant position, but then Elliott has been subbed multiple times like this and he's shown that he can be put on his back and kept there.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Shane Burgos fight was not that long ago. He looked like a spring chicken and got the ko on a tough guy. Do you think Mitchell can eat those same shots? i think edson rattles him and all that wrestling gets diminish when a fighter is hurt. Barboza was given a shit decision for Ige and Paul and can make the argument for being 4-1 at the age of 34-36. The last two cons for Mitchell are his layoff , a year and half ago and Edson has fought twice. Mitchell uses a lot of gas spamming takedowns too, this is a result of him not knowing how to strike very well on the feet. At the end you got a guy with solid takedowns but soso top control which is not sufficient enough to keep Barboza down forever.
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But is Mitchell just going to stand there and go toe to toe and trade like Burgos? I think Burgos is not good, he's fun, he's tough, puts on action fights, but he's also a punching bag and has no gameplan
 
Stat_Collector said:
Shane Burgos fight was not that long ago. He looked like a spring chicken and got the ko on a tough guy. Do you think Mitchell can eat those same shots? i think edson rattles him and all that wrestling gets diminish when a fighter is hurt. Barboza was given a shit decision for Ige and Paul and can make the argument for being 4-1 at the age of 34-36. The last two cons for Mitchell are his layoff , a year and half ago and Edson has fought twice. Mitchell uses a lot of gas spamming takedowns too, this is a result of him not knowing how to strike very well on the feet. At the end you got a guy with solid takedowns but soso top control which is not sufficient enough to keep Barboza down forever.
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Fighters do get old overnight and he took another beating in his last fight. Also took a bunch of big shots in the Burgos fight you mentioned. Not super confident but I think Bryce takes it.
 
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