UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal

Hellowhosthat said:
I like quite a few dogs on this card. Playing Barboza, Oleksiejczuk, Hardy, Moroz and Negumereanu.
Click to expand...

What's the rationale for Michal?? I don't see it at all. Jacoby is the better kickboxer he has some underrated performances against legit kickboxers in Glory and it's gonna be a kickboxing fight. Neither barely grapples. Jacoby going to a draw with Ion is probably more impressive than anything Michal has done too. Gamzatov and Antigulov are about as mediocre as Dagestani fighters get and Modestas got robbed badly against Michal. He has some power but he's not good.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I think what Jorge has going for him is his familiarity with Colby. He might know something about Colby like a hole in his striking that he can take advantage of. One of the things i notice about Colby is his lack of defense to side kicks and body blows. In the Rda fight, watch the last round and you see colby looked winded after having absorbed over 37 body strikes, Jorge is also a body snatcher like Rda , which we saw in the nate diaz fight. If Jorge can weather Colby's takedowns and survive to the later rounds, i can see him sapping Colby's stamina with knees to the body and side kicks. Power also is on Jorge's side , he secured 11 knockdowns and high rated kos more so than Colby. Colby will win the decision if it goes to the fifth, but I favor that the finish probability is on Masvidal.

rewatched the Damian maia fight too, Maia was able to land lots of right hands on Colby and cut his face up, and Maia is not even known for being a good striker.

View attachment 910943

closer look



This is largely to do with Colby being a 90% offensive fighter who will fight high pace and wear on you as he shoots doubles and throws high volume strikes. I can easily see masvidal stealing the first round with the more heavier blows.

Im still leaning on colby to win because of Masvidal's age. But i think Masvidal at 350+ looks tempting. I wonder if Jorge being pissed off actually makes him stronger and fight with more ferociousness. Kind of like a perk in a game that you can set to a fighter. Anyways that is my two cents, I'm not gonna ride or die on this one.
Click to expand...


Body shots for Jorge are gonna be big. RDA almost beat Colby arguably did to some and his body work was a big part of that.

Biggest stylistic difference between Usman and Colby besides size/power is Colby's clinch game is much worse and he's never been a top controller and Jorge is already hard to keep down as is. I think Jorge is actually the better clinch fighter and RDA outfought Colby inside for a lot of the fight too.
 
ExitLUPin said:
What's the rationale for Michal?? I don't see it at all. Jacoby is the better kickboxer he has some underrated performances against legit kickboxers in Glory and it's gonna be a kickboxing fight. Neither barely grapples. Jacoby going to a draw with Ion is probably more impressive than anything Michal has done too. Gamzatov and Antigulov are about as mediocre as Dagestani fighters get and Modestas got robbed badly against Michal. He has some power but he's not good.
Click to expand...

I like his handspeed and workrate and think it will cause Jacoby issues. I also don't think Jacoby is going to interrupt his flow by grappling with him.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Body shots for Jorge are gonna be big. RDA almost beat Colby arguably did to some and his body work was a big part of that.

Biggest stylistic difference between Usman and Colby besides size/power is Colby's clinch game is much worse and he's never been a top controller and Jorge is already hard to keep down as is. I think Jorge is actually the better clinch fighter and RDA outfought Colby inside for a lot of the fight too.
Click to expand...
Timestamped


Jorge actually verified what i said about Colby and body blows.

That's something I also didn't consider, i dont see colby cage stalling Jorge or keeping him down long.
 
ExitLUPin said:
What's the rationale for Michal?? I don't see it at all. Jacoby is the better kickboxer he has some underrated performances against legit kickboxers in Glory and it's gonna be a kickboxing fight. Neither barely grapples. Jacoby going to a draw with Ion is probably more impressive than anything Michal has done too. Gamzatov and Antigulov are about as mediocre as Dagestani fighters get and Modestas got robbed badly against Michal. He has some power but he's not good.
Click to expand...
This the main reason I flipped to Jacoby. No way would Modesta come close to beating Jacoby. Michal got back peddled by a lesser striker.
 
(Typed some odds wrong)
My first round of bets are in. Below in order of size. These are the only bets at size, but I do have some other bets on specific finishes.

Barboza +145: I'm not sold on Mitchell being a great wrestler, or a great submission guy, or having good top pressure. I think Barboza has that weird veteran type of difficult takedown defense that tires guys out, and on the feet they're on different levels.

Moicano +145: On a full camp Moicano is chalk imo. He's only lost to very good strikers with finishing power. I don't rate Dos Anjos as that type of striker. The danger for me is that he's not in shape. RDA is great at dragging out fights and making them messy. In that type of fight, he'll win. The price was right.

Kelleher/Nurmagomedov U2.5 +105: Most likely outcomes here imo are Kelleher catching a guillotine on a shot, or Nurmagomedov getting a takedown and taking the back. I'm really surprised at this price and I'll likely hit it again.

Covington/Masvidal U4.5 +125: This gives me some exposure if Masvidal lands and puts Colby out, or if Colby accumulates top time and lands an elbow or catches a RNC or something. 4.5 rounds is a long time(unless you bet the under).

Smith/Klein U1.5 +110: I don't know who gets the finish, I lean Klein, but I think this is one of those fights where once they start throwing, they keep going until the fight is over.

Rodriguez Yan U2.5 +200: I think a dominant decision is most likely, but at +200, Rodriguez is fighting with some urgency lately, and since she doesn't have to be afraid of going to the ground like she was against Dern, I think there's a good chance at the finish.
 
I'm convinced Jorge will spark Colby tomorrow . I think Jorge got cocky in the second usman fight, and had he not clowned around it would have been a close fight.



I think Jorge is going to surprise everyone tommorow.

This fight is going to be in the t-mobile arena 30ft cage. Cage size will favor Jorge.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I'm convinced Jorge will spark Colby tomorrow . I think Jorge got cocky in the second usman fight, and had he not clowned around it would have been a close fight.



I think Jorge is going to surprise everyone tommorow.

This fight is going to be in the t-mobile arena 30ft cage. Cage size will favor Jorge.
Click to expand...


Hot take, we will see. I think the pressure and cardio from Covington will be too much, but maybe I am underestimating Jorge's output and resilience. I've learned to not underestimate vets so I'll probably just put a bit on Covington Decision, think it is a good price at near evens.
 
Joonc said:
Hot take, we will see. I think the pressure and cardio from Covington will be too much, but maybe I am underestimating Jorge's output and resilience. I've learned to not underestimate vets so I'll probably just put a bit on Covington Decision, think it is a good price at near evens.
Click to expand...
I think Jorge stamina being bad is a deception, he looked tired against Usman because he came in on short notice and cut a lot of weight in short time, plus it was a small cage that helped usman wrestling. I wish he'd made it to the fifth round in the second fight so we could have saw what he looked like in the last round, I think its's a myth that Jorge is a gassy fighter.

+

The difference between Usman and Jorge is that Mas goes to the body a lot more and kicks to the leg. Usman is more of a head hunter, so he gave Colby room to throw that crazy pace. But between the two performance, Jorge got hit less in the first fight than colby usman first fight. Jorge is more defensive fighter than Colby, he moves his head and knows how to mix his strikes better. Colby ate a lot of body shots in the RDA fight, Rda nearly beat Colby but Colby size saved him. If Jorge goes in there and weathers the storm i can see him breaking colby's body down and making him gas with body blows like knees to the body and kicks. They're fighting in a 30 ft cage, and its going to favor Jorge more.
 
Last edited:
Joonc said:
Hot take, we will see. I think the pressure and cardio from Covington will be too much, but maybe I am underestimating Jorge's output and resilience. I've learned to not underestimate vets so I'll probably just put a bit on Covington Decision, think it is a good price at near evens.
Click to expand...
HotTake_Collector
 
Stat_Collector said:
I'm convinced Jorge will spark Colby tomorrow . I think Jorge got cocky in the second usman fight, and had he not clowned around it would have been a close fight.



I think Jorge is going to surprise everyone tommorow.

This fight is going to be in the t-mobile arena 30ft cage. Cage size will favor Jorge.
Click to expand...

I think Masvidal is a journeyman who got on a hot streak against over-ranked opponents (Askren, Till, Diaz)

I believe Usman and Colby are at least a level above him.

But of course, he has a puncher's chance.
 
Post 2 Decision said:
I think Masvidal is a journeyman who got on a hot streak against over-ranked opponents (Askren, Till, Diaz)

I believe Usman and Colby are at least a level above him.

But of course, he has a puncher's chance.
Click to expand...

To play devils advocate, who has Colby beaten and in what fashion to make you think he’s levels above Masvidal?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,119
Messages
55,468,421
Members
174,786
Latest member
plasterby

Share this page

Back
Top