UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie

[2020Tracked]

Gastelum is such a mug

 

[Dirtey]

I put some at Burns ITD. It is obviously a dog or pass fight if we are talking about picking a side straight up, and I got a hard time seeing Burns win a decision. Wouldnt surprise me if Khamzat comes out somewhat reckless, and he can get caught both standing and on the ground.

Might be hedge-able with livebetting as well.

Btw, any of you have any idea what happened with Ohmbet? Did they just shut down and took all the money on site with them? What can you do if so?

 

[lefontes]

I put some at Burns ITD. It is obviously a dog or pass fight if we are talking about picking a side straight up, and I got a hard time seeing Burns win a decision. Wouldnt surprise me if Khamzat comes out somewhat reckless, and he can get caught both standing and on the ground.

Might be hedge-able with livebetting as well.

Btw, any of you have any idea what happened with Ohmbet? Did they just shut down and took all the money on site with them? What can you do if so?

Ohmbet is scam

 

[ExitLUPin]

Burns +400
Aljo +350
Aljo finish +750
KZ finish +800
KZ rd 1 +1800
KZ rd 2 +2800

Im on all the dogs some of these are a bit much. Id be on all the faves if the odds were closer but Id hate if this was one of those upset PPVs and I missed out.

Khamzat is the real deal but hes a complete unknown in a fight that goes past 6 minutes. And he nearly retired following the COVID scare. We know hes an absolute destroyer early but if Gilbert can survive and push him who knows. He has fuck you power standing but alot of question marks on the technical aspects and tactics. Burns is one of the most athletic, powerful and explosive guys in the division and obviously one of the best grapplers

Beating Volk on points might be the hardest thing to do in MMA right now but weve seen him cracked a few times and KZ is probably the most powerful one shot punch hes fought since Mendes who did drop him. KZ can set up his shots and counters as well as anyone in the division and hes an underrated grappler too. He arguably beat Ige more soundly than anyone else including likes of Kattar and Emmett

Aljo getting an early sub isnt out of the question but is his only path IMO. Probably the last confident but Yan is a historically slow starter and if Aljo changes up the pace and adds a little change to his strategy we might see Yan confused and tentative

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Chimaev by KO at +140 is my favorite bet in a long long time. He is just way too big for Burns and I am buying the hype for him at 170 against anyone aside from Usman. Burns chin won't hold up. I also am going to take the first round TKO at +250.

 

[BigSteve]

early 2c? lets go:

Arce/Willycat: Dog or pass for me: Arce has that style where he gives away rounds trying to make reads, as Felder said. He lost round 1 to Song even though Song barely threw. He also backs up a lot and doesn't like pressure. Santos has that aggressive Thai style as well as a power advantage. He has a high guard and bobs and weaves into the pocket, slips-n-rips with heavy shots. Also has a mean spinning back kick and 2 KOs from it. In his loss in ACB the guy kept trying to wrestle for 3 rounds aggressively, not sure Arce will come in with that game plan. I still thought Santos might have stolen that one, he steals rounds with the aggression on the feet every time he stands up and has the cardio to throw for 3 rounds. In the other fight in ABC he beat another Russian who tried the same gameplan. I also have questions about Arces chin, his reaction in that Song KO was weird, plus constantly getting hurt by Moraes. Also constantly backed up in that Erosa fight. He was up 2-0 but seemed a lot closer than that live. Willycat might still be a bit green and his aggression can get him tagged a bit by the more technical Arce but I think it could be what wins him the fight if he pursues with it for all 3.

Hansen/Rodriguez: The people's main event. Honestly don't understand the line where it's at. Seems like massive recency bias. I understand hitting Rodriguez as a moderate dog, it probably had quite a bit of value at that point. I can see the argument Hansens wrestling ain't great, and it's not amazing, but she gets takedowns and keeps hunting for them relentlessly. Some of her entries aren't the best, but other times she times it great and is decent at catching kicks. When she gets you to the cage she is great at chain wrestling to the single, high crotch or even sacrifice throwing. She's also great at jumping on the back in scrambles. She took down a huge Jasmine up at FLW. She also won round 3 with her striking alone while giving up like 5inches of reach. Rodriguez has been taken down in every single fight I have taped minus the contender one. Are you telling me those cans have better wrestling than Kay? The LFA opponent was a guard puller, and she hurt Rodriguez multiple times on the feet as well as hitting takedowns later. She has no head movement, I have no trouble seeing Kay keeping it competitive on the feet. Rodriguez does crack though, and she does well to work to her feet when taken down. In the contender fight, she tried to wrestle and gassed bad and went to a split dec as a massive fav. Shes coming into her UFC debut as a fav over Kay Hansen who is dropping back down, and is a 2.15 underdog? I will take it.

Fluffy/Fremd: Hard fight to get a read on. Fremd gives me some weird flakey vibes. Like he is lumbering, slow and hittable, but also hits like a truck himself. Fluffy probably takes over with his cardio and much faster hands against a guy that has been dropped a lot, but I'm not sure if I can trust him at these odds. He is a punching bag and very weak to the body. Perez blasts everyone with his body kicks, yet only Fluffy was hurt with the toes scrapping him across the midsection. Iron Turtle visibly hurt him to the body too and Holland knee was pretty brutal. I thought about the under but Fremd has been fighting very patiently with jabs and teep kicks recently so just passing all together. Maybe a live bet if Fluffy gets hurt early.

Jarzinho/Tybura: Man we are getting a big discount on Jarzinho here. I got him at 1.80, I thought that was silly considering he is fighting a chinny fighter. The whole ground game thing is a bit overblown in my opinion. Jarzinho is Lewis 2.0. You can get him down sure, but each fight is getting harder and harder and he is hard to hold down. Nobody can seem to get any submissions off on him either because he explodes to his feet as soon as you attempt something. Overeem lost the last 2 rounds in their fight, he really struggled to take Jarzinho down once he got tired. Blaydes was a very telling fight. Blaydes was scared to close the distance, and he got a couple of his takedowns stuffed. On top, he didn't do anything just held on to secure the points. He also ate a flush knee to the head that almost closed his eye. Tybura ain't eating that shot without eating through a straw the next day. I have taped Tybura a lot recently, his wrestling ain't great. He usually gets stuffed on most of his attempts unless he locks his hands against the cage. That is without a doubt his best takedown, and sometimes he can benefit from a caught kick. My main worry is the output from Jarzinho. Tybura seems to have developed some confidence on the feet, he mixes it up well, switches stances and has good cardio and volume to throw for 3. But the problem is he has been getting cracked a lot, and where Ben, Hardy, Volkov, and Harris haven't been able to capitalize, I don't think Rozen will have that problem. He also carries his power late, so 3 rounds to catch him even if he is losing. I think the odds are more accurate where they are at now.

 

[PuertoRican]

I'll be in Las Vegas during this event. Send me a message if you want to meet up.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

fat gastelum said no mas to dricus he's back to eating taco's and burritos so they're not fighting anymore

Will he even take the next fight? i feel his running out of time to be with the UFC at this rate they will likely cut him.

To bad they cancelled dricus i hope the UFC brings him up again for another fight card he has promise.

 

[Everygoodnametook]

early 2c? lets go:

Arce/Willycat: Dog or pass for me: Arce has that style where he gives away rounds trying to make reads, as Felder said. He lost round 1 to Song even though Song barely threw. He also backs up a lot and doesn't like pressure. Santos has that aggressive Thai style as well as a power advantage. He has a high guard and bobs and weaves into the pocket, slips-n-rips with heavy shots. Also has a mean spinning back kick and 2 KOs from it. In his loss in ACB the guy kept trying to wrestle for 3 rounds aggressively, not sure Arce will come in with that game plan. I still thought Santos might have stolen that one, he steals rounds with the aggression on the feet every time he stands up and has the cardio to throw for 3 rounds. In the other fight in ABC he beat another Russian who tried the same gameplan. I also have questions about Arces chin, his reaction in that Song KO was weird, plus constantly getting hurt by Moraes. Also constantly backed up in that Erosa fight. He was up 2-0 but seemed a lot closer than that live. Willycat might still be a bit green and his aggression can get him tagged a bit by the more technical Arce but I think it could be what wins him the fight if he pursues with it for all 3.

Hansen/Rodriguez: The people's main event. Honestly don't understand the line where it's at. Seems like massive recency bias. I understand hitting Rodriguez as a moderate dog, it probably had quite a bit of value at that point. I can see the argument Hansens wrestling ain't great, and it's not amazing, but she gets takedowns and keeps hunting for them relentlessly. Some of her entries aren't the best, but other times she times it great and is decent at catching kicks. When she gets you to the cage she is great at chain wrestling to the single, high crotch or even sacrifice throwing. She's also great at jumping on the back in scrambles. She took down a huge Jasmine up at FLW. She also won round 3 with her striking alone while giving up like 5inches of reach. Rodriguez has been taken down in every single fight I have taped minus the contender one. Are you telling me those cans have better wrestling than Kay? The LFA opponent was a guard puller, and she hurt Rodriguez multiple times on the feet as well as hitting takedowns later. She has no head movement, I have no trouble seeing Kay keeping it competitive on the feet. Rodriguez does crack though, and she does well to work to her feet when taken down. In the contender fight, she tried to wrestle and gassed bad and went to a split dec as a massive fav. Shes coming into her UFC debut as a fav over Kay Hansen who is dropping back down, and is a 2.15 underdog? I will take it.

Fluffy/Fremd: Hard fight to get a read on. Fremd gives me some weird flakey vibes. Like he is lumbering, slow and hittable, but also hits like a truck himself. Fluffy probably takes over with his cardio and much faster hands against a guy that has been dropped a lot, but I'm not sure if I can trust him at these odds. He is a punching bag and very weak to the body. Perez blasts everyone with his body kicks, yet only Fluffy was hurt with the toes scrapping him across the midsection. Iron Turtle visibly hurt him to the body too and Holland knee was pretty brutal. I thought about the under but Fremd has been fighting very patiently with jabs and teep kicks recently so just passing all together. Maybe a live bet if Fluffy gets hurt early.

Jarzinho/Tybura: Man we are getting a big discount on Jarzinho here. I got him at 1.80, I thought that was silly considering he is fighting a chinny fighter. The whole ground game thing is a bit overblown in my opinion. Jarzinho is Lewis 2.0. You can get him down sure, but each fight is getting harder and harder and he is hard to hold down. Nobody can seem to get any submissions off on him either because he explodes to his feet as soon as you attempt something. Overeem lost the last 2 rounds in their fight, he really struggled to take Jarzinho down once he got tired. Blaydes was a very telling fight. Blaydes was scared to close the distance, and he got a couple of his takedowns stuffed. On top, he didn't do anything just held on to secure the points. He also ate a flush knee to the head that almost closed his eye. Tybura ain't eating that shot without eating through a straw the next day. I have taped Tybura a lot recently, his wrestling ain't great. He usually gets stuffed on most of his attempts unless he locks his hands against the cage. That is without a doubt his best takedown, and sometimes he can benefit from a caught kick. My main worry is the output from Jarzinho. Tybura seems to have developed some confidence on the feet, he mixes it up well, switches stances and has good cardio and volume to throw for 3. But the problem is he has been getting cracked a lot, and where Ben, Hardy, Volkov, and Harris haven't been able to capitalize, I don't think Rozen will have that problem. He also carries his power late, so 3 rounds to catch him even if he is losing. I think the odds are more accurate where they are at now.

always love your write ups, any thoughts on Gall v Mallot?

 

[BigSteve]

always love your write ups, any thoughts on Gall v Mallot?

Yea I taped it today, might as well give you my thoughts.

Seems wide to me. As much as I hate Mickey gal, and I always try to fade him, I am wondering what makes Mallot -200. There is only 2 fight of Mallot at WW. His contender opponent was a typical Israeli fraud, and Renfo hurt him on the feet and was having his way before getting caught from a naked leg kick and subbed. I have questions about his chin, Dawodu KOed him back in the day, and then Diagne who was 5-4 hurt and wobbled him multiple times in Bellator. I am pretty sure Mallot lost that not sure how it was a draw. This dude barley fights, and when he does it finishes in the first round. One time it went over against a regional bum it was sweaty and he lost the next 2. Both have decent jits which I think may cancel out. Gall got 30-27ed by Morono but honestly the fight seemed kinda close. He has some weird punches that can hurt people when he throws them, he was throwing off Morono with them and he hurt Sage, and Williams twice with them. If he can close his eyes and crack Mallot who might be chinny who knows. At least Mickey has a ton of 3 round experience in the UFC, I dont really see him getting dropped and subbed in the first. As much as I hate him he seems tough. His cardio is a bit average and so is the wrestling so not sure I will play. Maybe wait for a live bet see how Mallot looks when extended but if it gets wider you have to hit it.

 

[Dirtey]

Chimaev by KO at +140 is my favorite bet in a long long time. He is just way too big for Burns and I am buying the hype for him at 170 against anyone aside from Usman. Burns chin won't hold up. I also am going to take the first round TKO at +250.

Surprisingly good value on that considerd how the line looks.

 

[Joonc]

Surprising to me that Chimaev Burns DNGTD is *only* -275. I'm not keen on paying juice for props but there's an exception for everything and I think this is one of them, I think this line should be at least -500. We all already know how Khamzat dives in for the kill every fight and both Chimaev and Burns have the ability to finish this wherever the fight goes both on the feet and the ground. Both have powerful hands-Chimaev's chin and submission defense is a wild card, and Burns' chin is proven glass and is susceptible as a BJJ fighter to being ground and pounded out by a huge powerful wrestler like Chimaev. If people are concerned that Chimaev will gas out and slow down, that is not a worry for me. He does not seem like a gasser at all, he seems like he has rather good cardio actually going off the Hermansson bout and how wrestlers historically tend to have the cardio of an Ox. Anyways, I highly doubt Burns will be able to provide enough resistance to Khamzat's game to tire him out, Khamzat is just too much of a monster in size, power, and strength. Burns has to finish Khamzat or he will get finished early.

 

[lefontes]

Any friend could make breakdown about Hernandez X Fremd?

 

[SouthpawSouthernFist]

How much weight are you guys putting into Aljo's recent statements? That:

1) The last fight he was sapped of energy and underperformed
2) He is in peak physical shape and claims he will dominate Yan (via choke out). Not beat him, but dominate him.

He does look yoked, but I dunno. I checked out Aljo's recent fights and his wrestling is not that amazing, in my view. He was only able to wall n stall against Jimmy Rivera, he didn't even try to grapple against Munoz, and he got clowned obviously vs Yan in the last bout. Seems like he only really shines vs. strikers. Not really a Khabib-level wrestling situation here.

 

[SouthpawSouthernFist]

Who here also thinks Sterling upsets Yan? They were both 2-2 had it gone the 5th. I can see Alja changing his pace and winning a close split dec. no way should Yan be a -450 or -500

????

Yan won rounds 1 and 3 on the judges' scorecards. He was clearly winning the fourth. Aljo only won the 2nd. Where are you getting 2-2?

 

[Stat_Collector]

????

Yan won rounds 1 and 3 on the judges' scorecards. He was clearly winning the fourth. Aljo only won the 2nd. Where are you getting 2-2?

14 ss for Yan . 27 for sterlin. The takedowns were insignificant because he had low ctrl time. Alja landed lots of kicks to the body. Yan absorbed more strikes than he delivered. Wtf were you watching?

 

[SouthpawSouthernFist]

14 ss for Yan . 27 for sterlin. The takedowns were insignificant because he had low ctrl time. Alja landed lots of kicks to the body. Yan absorbed more strikes than he delivered. Wtf were you watching?

So you're discounting the official scorecards in favor of your own interpretation? Not the smartest thing to base a betting decision on ...

 

[Danis_champ]

How much weight are you guys putting into Aljo's recent statements? That:

1) The last fight he was sapped of energy and underperformed
2) He is in peak physical shape and claims he will dominate Yan (via choke out). Not beat him, but dominate him.

He does look yoked, but I dunno. I checked out Aljo's recent fights and his wrestling is not that amazing, in my view. He was only able to wall n stall against Jimmy Rivera, he didn't even try to grapple against Munoz, and he got clowned obviously vs Yan in the last bout. Seems like he only really shines vs. strikers. Not really a Khabib-level wrestling situation here.

Yan would have won split decision had last fight been 3 rounder. Imagine that Yan is now going into a rematch as -500 favorite. Doesn't make sense. Aljo could squeeze out 3 rounds and survive 4th and 5th. Dog or pass.

 

[SouthpawSouthernFist]

Yan would have won split decision had last fight been 3 rounder. Imagine that Yan is now going into a rematch as -500 favorite. Doesn't make sense. Aljo could squeeze out 3 rounds and survive 4th and 5th. Dog or pass.

Yea the value is not great on that front, even assuming the same Aljo from last fight. The question is, how much did Aljo improve?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yea the value is not great on that front, even assuming the same Aljo from last fight. The question is, how much did Aljo improve?

He looks more jacked and shredded, seeing those recent pics is enough to take a shot at those 365+ odds. This could be another Moreno-Davidson rivalry.