UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Procházka

[Captain Chesapeake]

I type my response, take a deep breath, then delete it when he talks about odds/percentages. A few weeks ago he had a few fighters at 90%.

Nice guy, he just doesn't understand odds and thinks the results make his percentages right/wrong. Long-term, this is why MMA is so easy to beat.

I’ve had him on ignore for a while now and there are very few people on that list.

If I thought he was trolling I honestly probably would’ve ran him out of the forum so it must have been the percentages you’re talking about that bothered me so much That I had to put him on ignore lol

if he’s capping santos at +190 and she’s available for +400 then he should be dropping a sizable bet

if you haven’t bet her mr stat collector then maybe you should read up on implied probability and handicapping so you have a better understanding of how this game works. Most successful bettors use this system

do your percentages reflect confidence or the amount of times they win the fight out of 10?

Because when you put percentages out there people automatically think implied probability

 

[Stat_Collector]

I do remember you touting a fighter that I bet and he won easy. I do remember thanking you for mentioning it. I don't know what the two have to do with each other. Having a good opinion and understanding gambling are two different things.

No need to be hostile. If you're having fun, keep doing what you're doing. Facts are facts though so you should know that people are going to notice your percentages are nuts.

did i give you chit for betting on Gerald meerchartd over Jotko? why do you pretend like you dont get chit wrong? the only high percentage i gave last week was to Menifled and he was the most dominating fighter of that card. you can follow my tapology page and see i have gotten chit tons of fights right. You got me on one pick Holly Holm and that’s your gotcha moment. its just over exaggerating like the fight wasn’t even close. and i have ticket stubs with 1-2k posted on here, are you even aware i post stubs here? bovada placed limits on my bets down to 50$ for prop betting because i was whipping their ass, so i dont know where you say i bet for fun anyone who follows my tennis thread or ufc pbp post knows i always post stubs.

 

[TeamVamos]

Jiri and glover aren't going the distance.
Like Maheshates power and size. Garcia will likely be looking to take fight to ground.
Ramona looked decent in her last fight till she gassed. Think she'll put the pressure on Edwards. Like her right hook and left body kick. She likely tries to take Edwards down.
Liang versus Gomez is a shit fight that'll be action packed.

 

[jnes]

yeah her technique is good. she has good strength and size. Valentina can be controlled by bigger girls. she also looked a little tentative (than normal)in her last fight. she’ll probably win, but i give her now around 60% chance. at the end i see two athletic females about to fight. i think the fight will be a contest that most people don’t expect.

You have some quality reads man I'll give you that, but no way in hell does Santos have a 40% chance to win. With her odds right now and if you think that you should be dropping a BIG bet. I'm giving Santos like a 10-15% chance to win this fight.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

not like i post winning stubs almost every week or document my tapology picks with 94% prediction. i called Sterlin/yan 2 , cashed out on francis ngannou dec over Gane and most recently Jan ko 3-5 1000+

i dont know why so many people harp on mma fighters like they are cyborgs who cant lose, the same reaction im getting from you is the same i got when i said sterlin could beat yan. upsets happen. get over it.

A 94% record on tap? Can you link your profile. That's incredibly high.

 

[The Disasters]

did i give you chit for betting on Gerald meerchartd over Jotko? why do you pretend like you dont get chit wrong? the only high percentage i gave last week was to Menifled and he was the most dominating fighter of that card. you can follow my tapology page and see i have gotten chit tons of fights right. You got me on one pick Holly Holm and that’s your gotcha moment. its just over exaggerating like the fight wasn’t even close. and i have ticket stubs with 1-2k posted on here, are you even aware i post stubs here? bovada placed limits on my bets down to 50$ for prop betting because i was whipping their ass, so i dont know where you say i bet for fun anyone who follows my tennis thread or ufc pbp post knows i always post stubs.

I've never once said or implied that I don't get things wrong. I get things wrong all the time. The difference between you and I is that I know I'm going to be wrong a certain percentage of the time, and I know what that percentage is when I make a bet.

I also have never once talked shit about any bets I've hit and I don't remember Holm being a play. Actually, I just went through my records and I've never bet on her.

I don't care about your stubs. I posted mine one time when someone called bullshit and then I deleted them and stopped including amounts because there's no reason for it. People who think the amount they bet makes them sharper are great people to bet against.

Good luck on the card.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I’ve had him on ignore for a while now and there are very few people on that list.

If I thought he was trolling I honestly probably would’ve ran him out of the forum so it must have been the percentages you’re talking about that bothered me so much That I had to put him on ignore lol

if he’s capping santos at +190 and she’s available for +400 then he should be dropping a sizable bet

if you haven’t bet her mr stat collector then maybe you should read up on implied probability and handicapping so you have a better understanding of how this game works. Most successful bettors use this system

do your percentages reflect confidence or the amount of times they win the fight out of 10?

Because when you put percentages out there people automatically think implied probability

its not my style, i bet low on underdogs and high on favorites who i have strong leans. I’m not going to bet that high because a robbery fight can happen. 90% of my biggest wins have been on strong favorites who i feel were b

You have some quality reads man I'll give you that, but no way in hell does Santos have a 40% chance to win. With her odds right now and if you think that you should be dropping a BIG bet. I'm giving Santos like a 10-15% chance to win this fight.

santos has the following:

1. size athleticism . 1+ height 2+ reach
2. drops down in weight she is a 135 lb who drops to 125lb. Valentina fought Joana 3x in muay thai when she was 115 against joana which means she use to fight small and went up in weight.

3. Santos also competed in muay thai and has experience in standup. she is both adequate on the feet and the ground. so she is well rounded fighter. Shev steamrolled all the other girls because they were either too small or lacking athleticism.

4.She is younger 28 v 34, while 34 close to prime age (30) its also where a lot of fighters peek.

5. she has terrible loss to morella who was a kick boxer herself, is that any worst than Stipe losing to Struve?

that being said, i give her 40%.

do wanna go big ham on her? not really. underdogs have never paid big for me. my stradegy of parlaying 3 safe fights with a strong lean at 150+ or 200+ at 1k stake is my go to premier bet. ive had a profitable year. im not going to change and try to fix what aint broke.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I've never once said or implied that I don't get things wrong. I get things wrong all the time. The difference between you and I is that I know I'm going to be wrong a certain percentage of the time, and I know what that percentage is when I make a bet.

I also have never once talked shit about any bets I've hit and I don't remember Holm being a play. Actually, I just went through my records and I've never bet on her.

I don't care about your stubs. I posted mine one time when someone called bullshit and then I deleted them and stopped including amounts because there's no reason for it. People who think the amount they bet makes them sharper are great people to bet against.

Good luck on the card.

my percentage is just that, its risk odds. im doing exactly what you’re doing. last week i laid big ham on menifield. small on marquez, i weigh the risk and make bets. some people get mad because i dont like to blow my budget on a bunch of underdogs.

to me underdogs are lotto plays, i dont care what gambling books say about handicapping or odds or what you should bet. i dont let the odds decide for me, i look at what i see in footage stats and make an assessment of how close the fight can be. hit or miss. its part of gambling.

 

[TrueAscension]

Holy fuck shut up lol

 

[jnes]

its not my style, i bet low on underdogs and high on favorites who i have strong leans. I’m not going to bet that high because a robbery fight can happen. 90% of my biggest wins have been on strong favorites who i feel were b

santos has the following:

1. size athleticism . 1+ height 2+ reach
2. drops down in weight she is a 135 lb who drops to 125lb. Valentina fought Joana 3x in muay thai when she was 115 against joana which means she use to fight small and went up in weight.

3. Santos also competed in muay thai and has experience in standup. she is both adequate on the feet and the ground. so she is well rounded fighter. Shev steamrolled all the other girls because they were either too small or lacking athleticism.

4.She is younger 28 v 34, while 34 close to prime age (30) its also where a lot of fighters peek.

5. she has terrible loss to morella who was a kick boxer herself, is that any worst than Stipe losing to Struve?

that being said, i give her 40%.

do wanna go big ham on her? not really. underdogs have never paid big for me. my stradegy of parlaying 3 safe fights with a strong lean at 150+ or 200+ at 1k stake is my go to premier bet. ive had a profitable year. im not going to change and try to fix what aint broke.

1.Height and reach will have no impact on this fight. Valentina is a master striker and won't have a problem with this. Height and reach comes into consideration when it is a big difference and against lesser skilled strikers.
2. Shev fought at 135 and held her own vs a massive Nunes. She's a bigger 125, size shouldn't be an issue.
3. Santos has striking success when countering, she will not beat Shevchenko who is a top 3 counter-striker in the sport. She'll get impatient and end up overthrowing and walking into Val's shots.
4. Not worried about age unless they look terrible in their last fights. Shev is still the most explosive fighter in the division by far.
5.?

Santos has to take her down if she wants a chance and be hyper aggressive hunting subs which she is good at. This is also her first 5 rounder (although her cardio has looked good so far), and she lacks the resume of quality fighters to be around 40%. Her best win is a past-prime, glacially slow Joanne Wood.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

its not my style, i bet low on underdogs and high on favorites who i have strong leans. I’m not going to bet that high because a robbery fight can happen. 90% of my biggest wins have been on strong favorites who i feel were b

santos has the following:

1. size athleticism . 1+ height 2+ reach
2. drops down in weight she is a 135 lb who drops to 125lb. Valentina fought Joana 3x in muay thai when she was 115 against joana which means she use to fight small and went up in weight.

3. Santos also competed in muay thai and has experience in standup. she is both adequate on the feet and the ground. so she is well rounded fighter. Shev steamrolled all the other girls because they were either too small or lacking athleticism.

4.She is younger 28 v 34, while 34 close to prime age (30) its also where a lot of fighters peek.

5. she has terrible loss to morella who was a kick boxer herself, is that any worst than Stipe losing to Struve?

that being said, i give her 40%.

do wanna go big ham on her? not really. underdogs have never paid big for me. my stradegy of parlaying 3 safe fights with a strong lean at 150+ or 200+ at 1k stake is my go to premier bet. ive had a profitable year. im not going to change and try to fix what aint broke.

It's much worse than Stipe losing to Struve, those are heavyweight men where 1 punch is all it takes sometimes...

 

[Stat_Collector]

1.Height and reach will have no impact on this fight. Valentina is a master striker and won't have a problem with this. Height and reach comes into consideration when it is a big difference and against lesser skilled strikers.
2. Shev fought at 135 and held her own vs a massive Nunes. She's a bigger 125, size shouldn't be an issue.
3. Santos has striking success when countering, she will not beat Shevchenko who is a top 3 counter-striker in the sport. She'll get impatient and end up overthrowing and walking into Val's shots.
4. Not worried about age unless they look terrible in their last fights. Shev is still the most explosive fighter in the division by far.
5.?

Santos has to take her down if she wants a chance and be hyper aggressive hunting subs which she is good at. This is also her first 5 rounder (although her cardio has looked good so far), and she lacks the resume of quality fighters to be around 40%. Her best win is a past-prime, glacially slow Joanne Wood.

Nunes won though. Im still leaning on Val, but i wanna be there for the upset in case it happens , at the expense of 50$

 

[Stat_Collector]

A 94% record on tap? Can you link your profile. That's incredibly high.

John_L_Sullivan | Tapology User Profile
these are strong leans only. Menifield made the cut last week.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

@Stat_Collector
Not the greatest fight card for betting tonight lol.
I do like Jake Matthews as the underdog as Fiatho has the knockout power.
Matthews can pull TakeDowns.

On Batgerel vs Kyung Ho.
I am not very confident on either side.
On Hayisaer vs Steve Garcia. Again dont have a strong leaning to either side but anything can happen.
Woo Choi should take the win for tonight.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

John_L_Sullivan | Tapology User Profile
these are strong leans only. Menifield made the cut last week.

Oh those are mostly massive favourites.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Oh those are mostly massive favourites.

try the challenge yourself. you'd be surprise how hard it is to get a streak going. im on 16 fights straight .

 

[Stat_Collector]

@Stat_Collector
Not the greatest fight card for betting tonight lol.
I do like Jake Matthews as the underdog as Fiatho has the knockout power.
Matthews can pull TakeDowns.

On Batgerel vs Kyung Ho.
I am not very confident on either side.
On Hayisaer vs Steve Garcia. Again dont have a strong leaning to either side but anything can happen.
Woo Choi should take the win for tonight.
View attachment 927418

I like Hayisaer on footage but not on record capping. he's big and strong and i think steve is moved up in weight, use to fight smaller. i think he'll try and shoot to the ground. I got him on DK.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I like Hayisaer on footage but not on record capping. he's big and strong and i think steve is moved up in weight, use to fight smaller. i think he'll try and shoot to the ground. I got him on DK.

Its to bad Ontario got rid of Daily Fantasy Sports I would likely made just four lineups tonight.
In MMA betting i usuually do well to.

Hope it returns. I hear people here in Ontario are getting tired seeing so many sport bookies ads.

 

[Blacksonville]

Oh those are mostly massive favourites.

Huge fallacy, that the right way to bet is finding value in big dogs that come through.
Mug punter shit.
Being highly selective with favorites, occasionally value-betting dogs is a winning strategy, if you have the right insights into the game.
His streak there is very impressive.

 

[PuertoRican]

UFC 275 PBP/Discussion: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-275-pbp-discussion.4242968/