UFC 281, Adesanya vs. Pereira, November 12

Stat_Collector said:
Im having a feeling Ottman is going to drop the ball. he's beaten mostly bummy fighters. Frivola beat Turner, Pena and draw with Lando, makes him the more proven fighter. He's chinny so that is his kryptonite , but Ottman has not fought in over 2 years. its hard to bet him too much. decided to fade his exposure a bit.
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I just watched all Frevola's fight at UFC and the boy has nothing special and barely won Jalin, every second he was on the feet against him he's been hit. Pena has a completely different game plan if you consider any similarities with Ottman.
Another huge point is Ottman's camp who he brought Umar Nurmagomedov, Joel Alvarez, Khizriev, Manel Kape and Radzhabov. That's a high level. I'm going huge on the POTATO MAN.
 
Pereira KO is 3.5. Seems like the play if you're playing him right?
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Pereira KO is 3.5. Seems like the play if you're playing him right?
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I was surprised how good the unders are. I mean under 4,5 rounds for 2.07 (+107)? I don’t think this one goes to the score cards… Yeah, I know Adesanya has been putting on a defensive master classes in point fighting, but I feel this one is different.

Pereira is actually a very dangerous striker (wouldn’t put Cannonier in that group) who fights aggressively AND is tall, has the reach to go with it… I’m not sure if he’ll catch Adesanya early, but someone is going down here. It won’t be leg kicks and running this time :eek: I guess Adesanya could catch Poatan with something as well, don’t get me wrong.

That’s a better bet, IMO. What do you think?
 
mkess101 said:
That line is absurd. Soooo much more likely he finishes than that Izzy does. I'd cap that around -200 or so. Massive value imo.
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On 5dimes it's -165, on Betonline it's at those plus odds, so I played that.

Alex Pereira NSA @+115
200 to win 230

Blanchfield SUB @+240
38 to win 91.20

Ottman Azaitar round 1 @+335
25 to win 83.75



Also saw these, but haven't made a play yet.
Petroski sub +550
Chandler round 1 @+400
Chandler round 1 ko @+800
 
Esaú Moreira said:
I just watched all Frevola's fight at UFC and the boy has nothing special and barely won Jalin, every second he was on the feet against him he's been hit. Pena has a completely different game plan if you consider any similarities with Ottman.
Another huge point is Ottman's camp who he brought Umar Nurmagomedov, Joel Alvarez, Khizriev, Manel Kape and Radzhabov. That's a high level. I'm going huge on the POTATO MAN.
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i still favor ottsman, i just lowered exposure. i agree with what you said but Ottsman in the 3rd round is a mystery, he may be a gassy fighter.
 
I think I’m going to end up talking myself into playing Edgar and even Spann.

I already took Spann rd 1 and sub.

im going to start peeing in a bottle from now on up to the event for good luck

is Gutierrez going to calf kick His way to victory? Can’t help but think even old washed Frankie is taking that boy down and beating him up
 
Stat_Collector said:
i still favor ottsman, i just lowered exposure. i agree with what you said but Ottsman in the 3rd round is a mystery, he may be a gassy fighter.
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Personally I just like Ottman against anyone who's been one shotted in the first round twice like Matt has.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I think I’m going to end up talking myself into playing Edgar and even Spann.

I already took Spann rd 1 and sub.

is Gutierrez going to calf kick His way to victory? Can’t help but think even old washed Frankie is taking that boy down and beating him up
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I'm kind of still considering Frankie. I think if he wrestles he can win, I think his movement is good which will make it hard for the leg kicks to land particularly clean. (Frankie has fought 15 rounds with Ben Henderson and Pedro Munhoz). I think this is a big step up for Gutierrez and I think that Frankie is going to be motivated as fuck to go out with a victory in New York.


Not even crossed my mind to play Spann though. Probably going to play Reyes by KO if I touch that fight.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I'm kind of still considering Frankie. I think if he wrestles he can win, I think his movement is good which will make it hard for the leg kicks to land particularly clean. (Frankie has fought 15 rounds with Ben Henderson and Pedro Munhoz). I think this is a big step up for Gutierrez and I think that Frankie is going to be motivated as fuck to go out with a victory in New York.


Not even crossed my mind to play Spann though. Probably going to play Reyes by KO if I touch that fight.
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Spann has a way of creating chaos and finding ways to win out of it.

His sub prop was +900 and his rd 1 prop was like +700 I think

Reyes overrated imo
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Personally I just like Ottman against anyone who's been one shotted in the first round twice like Matt has.
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same reason i played him, but i don't think he's safe, a low rated knockout artist is deceptive. cause those guys were bad fighters it gives the impression he is better than he is. but i agree, i put money on a later stoppage rnds 2 and 3. his 1st rnd kos are against cans.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Spann has a way of creating chaos and finding ways to win out of it.

His sub prop was +900 and his rd 1 prop was like +700 I think

Reyes overrated imo
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any value that Jon Jones could not tap him and could not hold him down long in a 5 round fight? 1:46 ctrl time in a 25 min fight, and Jon Jones is levels higher better than Spann.
 
Stat_Collector said:
any value that Jon Jones could not tap him and could not hold him down long in a 5 round fight? 1:46 ctrl time in a 25 min fight, and Jon Jones is levels higher better than Spann.
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I haven’t watched Jones in a while but at his best I think he tools Reyes. He’s regressed imo

Spann usually snatches up guillotines from clinch or from guys trying to take him down. I bet $11 on it. Nothing of confidence. Just an early feeling that Spann might be live. He’s got knock out power and Reyes has been knocked out in his last two fights
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I haven’t watched Jones in a while but at his best I think he tools Reyes. He’s regressed imo

Spann usually snatches up guillotines from clinch or from guys trying to take him down. I bet $11 on it. Nothing of confidence. Just an early feeling that Spann might be live. He’s got knock out power and Reyes has been knocked out in his last two fights
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That's fair.

Only i would argue Jon is still better than Spann
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
I haven’t watched Jones in a while but at his best I think he tools Reyes. He’s regressed imo

Spann usually snatches up guillotines from clinch or from guys trying to take him down. I bet $11 on it. Nothing of confidence. Just an early feeling that Spann might be live. He’s got knock out power and Reyes has been knocked out in his last two fights
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I think Spann is pretty chinny himself though. I also think he tends to lose badly once he gets to the higher echelons of the division and I think Reyes will beat him as easily as Smith did personally.

Might be wrong though. <WhatItIs>
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I think Spann is pretty chinny himself though. I also think he tends to lose badly once he gets to the higher echelons of the division and I think Reyes will beat him as easily as Smith did personally.

Might be wrong though. <WhatItIs>
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I think he’s a flake for sure

It’s a bit of an early hot take and something I’ll flesh out more with tape. I have some parlays and I’ve passed over Reyes at -2— even though you would think he would be an obvious play
 
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