UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

[Stat_Collector]

The thing that sucks is there are so many wide lines on this card. I'm driving out of state (only 1.5 hours each way so not THAT far, but still a little haul) to get bets in at the book. So looking for spots I like other than Gane and Ricci, and this line wasn't one of the crazy wide ones. But I also am not gonna force a play that's not there. I'd rather fade Garbrandt and play Jones at + money at this point. But I have this week to research a little more and also see if there's line movement.

if you can prop bet there i would try these.

Farid Dec
Ian Gerry-ko 1 -2 , round 1 preferably.
Dricus ko - ppl bring up Till but that is a different style matchup, Till is better than Brunson on the feet, and Dricus has enough grappling knowledge to avoid the ground enough to get his licks in and spark Brunson who has been koed 6x against every heavy handed/kicker he's faced.

I like Jon dec and Turner by itd but those are weak leans, worthy only for a hailmary parlay.

For Ricci i have no confidence in my wmma picks so i'll likely pass. She should dec her.

 

[Holz37]

Agree, but I just can't -200 juice on Gamrot. -150 yes.

Yea completely understandable. My point was more that the people bringing up Gamrot's lack of control time as a reason to bet Turner need to consider the difference in level of defensive grappling between Gamrot's previous opponents and Turner.

 

[XociDe]

I imagine Gamrot is a guy who stays in shape year round but this is a short notice fight, so worth keeping that in mind. I think he will only have about 2 weeks of real training.

Turner seems to have turned a corner in his career and looks like a real threat. Still, very hard to predict what will happen.

 

[PuertoRican]

Ribovics fight is off

 

[Thesnake101]

Might side with Loik depending on the odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yea completely understandable. My point was more that the people bringing up Gamrot's lack of control time as a reason to bet Turner need to consider the difference in level of defensive grappling between Gamrot's previous opponents and Turner.

Scott Holtzman and Guram seem to have been glanced over and ignored, they are elite grapplers too?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Might side with Loik depending on the odds.

-255

 

[Thesnake101]

-255

Alright, fuck that.

Hopefully it drops down come fight night.

 

[mkess101]

if you can prop bet there i would try these.

Farid Dec
Ian Gerry-ko 1 -2 , round 1 preferably.
Dricus ko - ppl bring up Till but that is a different style matchup, Till is better than Brunson on the feet, and Dricus has enough grappling knowledge to avoid the ground enough to get his licks in and spark Brunson who has been koed 6x against every heavy handed/kicker he's faced.

I like Jon dec and Turner by itd but those are weak leans, worthy only for a hailmary parlay.

For Ricci i have no confidence in my wmma picks so i'll likely pass. She should dec her.

IDK, Garry really doesn't seem to seek out finishes. He's good, but seems content to outclass guys on the outside pretty often.
Dricus...maybe. If he wins I do think it's likely by KO so if the line is good enough then yeah. I'm against you on Jones, pass on Turner/Gamrot at current odds.
Ricci should no way lose to Penne. She's more physical, just the better fighter. I know it's WMMA but Ricci is maybe my most confident play on the card that isn't some stupid line at -500 or more.

 

[Stat_Collector]

IDK, Garry really doesn't seem to seek out finishes. He's good, but seems content to outclass guys on the outside pretty often.
Dricus...maybe. If he wins I do think it's likely by KO so if the line is good enough then yeah. I'm against you on Jones, pass on Turner/Gamrot at current odds.
Ricci should no way lose to Penne. She's more physical, just the better fighter. I know it's WMMA but Ricci is maybe my most confident play on the card that isn't some stupid line at -500 or more.

I'll probably end up fading Turner because of the resume of Gamrot throughout his career , he's beaten so much better fighters.

Garry has decent heavy hands, while he does tend to fight outside i would not put it passed him to beat Kenan by ko who is inactive , fought since march 2021 and has only fought once a year. His last ko loss to Max Griffen was a stiff jab, lots more wear tare on that chin. I think he'll crumble if Ian hits him with a straight.

I'll throw her in a dec prop parlay. she should win on points, Penne now 40.

 

[Benny 97]

Cyril Gane’s destruction of Jones will soon be studied in the heavies

 

[Jinx_AA]

Ricci is in every parlay

Bo by finish

Ian Gary is safe pick but no good value

Val’s safe as can be for parlays where you get bonus money each leg you add

I think du plesis should win

For dog picks I like both Marquez and Martinez

shavkat should be a lock but -550 not worth it … might play finish line since he is 16 and 0 with 16 finishes … gotta see the prop odds when they drop

 

[Bakayoko]

How many people on this forum will do it?

Actually,I even don't mind for example parlaying Shavkat,Shev,Ian and Bo(lol at that Line) with the 5% accumulator on 365 with each pick,I mean it's not worth it but I get it.It's just that it's funny that people everywhere are highlighting this card for making money and everyone has the same overjuiced parlay lol
I'm with @mkess101 on this one,have 300$ on Gane,I thought adding more but will wait for now.
I think Du Plessis wins but I have to take Brunson for value...

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Actually,I even don't mind for example parlaying Shavkat,Shev,Ian and Bo(lol at that Line) with the 5% accumulator on 365 with each pick,I mean it's not worth it but I get it.It's just that it's funny that people everywhere are highlighting this card for making money and everyone has the same overjuiced parlay lol
I'm with @mkess101 on this one,have 300$ on Gane,I thought adding more but will wait for now.
I think Du Plessis wins but I have to take Brunson for value...

yah i admittedly did it with the caveat being the 5% boost for each leg as you mentioned, being that it's a 9 leg parlay creating 40% boost it makes a pretty meaningful difference. I skipped shavkat though, took the other ones mentioned.

 

[Thesnake101]

Really liking Saimaan itd at +125. Mana just has been so low output against guys you'd expect him to blow through, so I can't see him dealing well with Cameron's constant pressure.

Maybe he'll chin check him or something, but I think it's more likely he gets overwhelmed.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Ribovics+210(He wins by KO)
Bashrat-410(He wins by dec)
Ricci/Penne-OV(Ricci Wins by dec)
Samian/Martinez-OV(Saiman wins by dec)
Garry-600(He wins by Dec)
Marquez+105(He wins by sub)
Ribas/Arjuao-OV (Ribas wins by dec)
Brunson/Duplesis-UN(du plesis ko)
Garbrandt-165(He wins by dec)
Nickal-1400(He wins by KO)
Turner+145(He wins by TKO)
Rahkmanov/Neal-UN(Rahkmanov wins by KO)
Grasso/Svhevenko-OV(Scheveneko wins by dec)
Jones/Gane-OV(Jones wins by dec)

 

[NonPhixion]

like Jones/Gane to go the distance.
Think both are going to fight fairly conservatively, especially Jon.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Really liking Saimaan itd at +125. Mana just has been so low output against guys you'd expect him to blow through, so I can't see him dealing well with Cameron's constant pressure.

Maybe he'll chin check him or something, but I think it's more likely he gets overwhelmed.

i would consider ko3 . his kos come late always. feels like its rnd 3 or dec . he’s not a quick finisher to say the lease.

 

[Thesnake101]

i would consider ko3 . his kos come late always. feels like its rnd 3 or dec . he’s not a quick finisher to say the lease.

Only thing that worries me is that Mana could shoot straight into a sub or something early. I might look into putting either Saaiman itd or KO/Dec in a safeish parlay (Radzhabov over/Ricci ML) and hedge with his sub line since I think it'll be crazy.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I really like the odds on Gane now.... but I will not bet this fight. I rather enjoy this awesome fight without any stake in it. Therefore it's a pass for me on the main event so that I can enjoy it, but if the line of Gane keeps getting better I will have to bet him.