UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

[Captain Chesapeake]

Anyone think Blackshear is being overlooked? I think he's actually pretty solid and has the experience advantage here. He gassed in his last fight, but he took that on 10 days notice and still brought it to Zalal (who's underrated himself imo).

I'm not really sold on Farid as much as I am with his brother. He mostly looked good in his DWCS fight, but that was against a kind of mediocre brawler, and he hasn't run over his low-quality competition as much as he should have.

Line is super wide.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

I have to admit I'm less confident on Gane the closer we get to the fight. I might have to lay off a side on that one. I do like the fight going the distance.

I also love the Co main over 3.5 at even odds. Grasso's guard is improving every fight. She's also the most technical striker Shev has fought outside of Joanna and maybe Holm. I think Grasso can at least survive on the ground and make Shev fight defensive on the feet.

Ive seen this story with Brunson before. I'll gladly take him at those odds.

 

[Oblivian]

I have zero confidence in any play on the main event. You'd think that the over would be safe, but there is a chance the disparity between Jones and Gane on the ground is large enough for a finish.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I have zero confidence in any play on the main event. You'd think that the over would be safe, but there is a chance the disparity between Jones and Gane on the ground is large enough for a finish.

I think it’s hard to trust Jones in this spot. Unbettable coming off the layoff, moving up, looking like crap since like 2018. Just not a spot I’m interested in playing him

I favor decision but don’t want to bet it

 

[michi972]

I’m not saying to bet Brunson but paying chalk for du plessis or throwing him in parlays is a bad move

dog or pass or find a prop you really like

Yeah, I don't get the odds. Dircus struggled against worst version of Till. Brunson is proven against top fighters, he has early finishes as well as decisions and late stoppage wins. Wrestler with ko power, experience and who was ranked for many years.

I'm less confident in Gane the closer we get, but Jones didn't look well on recent years, inactive. I believe Jones has more motivation at hw, but I still don't think he will be as good as at lhw.

Gane and Brunson are my dog picks.

I think Gamrot will put a grappling clinic on Turner

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I have to admit I'm less confident on Gane the closer we get to the fight. I might have to lay off a side on that one. I do like the fight going the distance.

I also love the Co main over 3.5 at even odds. Grasso's guard is improving every fight. She's also the most technical striker Shev has fought outside of Joanna and maybe Holm. I think Grasso can at least survive on the ground and make Shev fight defensive on the feet.

Ive seen this story with Brunson before. I'll gladly take him at those odds.

honestly you might be right. shevchenko is due a boring ass low volume striking fest lol. I am still a little scared though whenever the fight hits the ground.

 

[mkess101]

Welp...so much for playing Gamrot. Keeps getting steamed. -220 now. Starting to approach the fringes of where I consider Turner.

Ricci steamed too, fuck off on that LOL. I'll still play her but now gotta look at props. Probably still parlay her ML with one or two other plays.

 

[Paironj56]

Du Plessis has not looked like a solid fighter at all IMO. His wins have been almost bizarre to me. It's like he makes his opponents have one of their worst performances. That's the thing that worries me with Brunson too. He can definitely fade at times and fold to powerful guys.

du plessis looks like he cannot fight to save his life but somehow he ends up winning. He reminds me of jake paul, who doesn't have the fundamentals to throw punches properly, but somehow keeps beating pro fighters (although mma fighters). Some fighters look like trash but somehow it works for them.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I don't get the TIll/Brunson comparison.

Till only won rnd 2 and it was a low volume round, no real time i felt Dricus was in any danger.

Brunson doesn't have Till's chin, footwork or 1-2 punches. Brunson is basic on the feet, chinny, with good wrestling, but this is something Dricus can do at a solid level is wrestle or prevent himself from being floored and grinded on. If Dricus hits Brunson with the same punches he landed on Till in rnd 3, he will starch him. Dricus only looks bad when he blows his gas tank grappling, which he won't do against Brunson, plus even at a low gas tank Dricus can still hit hard till late rnd 3. His power never seems to fade.

 

[michi972]

I don't get the TIll/Brunson comparison.

Till only won rnd 2 and it was a low volume round, no real time i felt Dricus was in any danger.

Brunson doesn't have Till's chin, footwork or 1-2 punches. Brunson is basic on the feet, chinny, with good wrestling, but this is something Dricus can do at a solid level is wrestle or prevent himself from being floored and grinded on. If Dricus hits Brunson with the same punches he landed on Till in rnd 3, he will starch him. Dricus only looks bad when he blows his gas tank grappling, which he won't do against Brunson, plus even at a low gas tank Dricus can still hit hard till late rnd 3. His power never seems to fade.

Till didn't look like he had anything left, especially footwork. His knees looked as shot as they possibly could be.

 

[Paironj56]

I don't get the TIll/Brunson comparison.

Till only won rnd 2 and it was a low volume round, no real time i felt Dricus was in any danger.

Brunson doesn't have Till's chin, footwork or 1-2 punches. Brunson is basic on the feet, chinny, with good wrestling, but this is something Dricus can do at a solid level is wrestle or prevent himself from being floored and grinded on. If Dricus hits Brunson with the same punches he landed on Till in rnd 3, he will starch him. Dricus only looks bad when he blows his gas tank grappling, which he won't do against Brunson, plus even at a low gas tank Dricus can still hit hard till late rnd 3. His power never seems to fade.

He for sure was in danger of being finished in that second round. At any moment it looked like till was about take him out in that second round.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Till didn't look like he had anything left, especially footwork. His knees looked as shot as they possibly could be.

he still moves better than Brunson, he back pivots a lot better.

He for sure was in danger of being finished in that second round. At any moment it looked like till was about take him out in that second round.

That never happen, if it did tell me the timestamp . He hit Dricus with hard shots but never was Dricus wobbled or dropped. And Dricus got his own licks in rnd 3 before the choke.

Even if you wanna go by that narrative, Dricus out struck Brad Tavarez who is better than Brunson on the feet. Once you realize that the only edge Brunson has is his wrestling . you start to ask, who has a bigger gap in standup to grappling ratio?

imo the gap is wider for Brunson on the feet than his grappling with Dricus on the ground.

All of Brunson's wins all have a similar trait. His opponent's were basic on the ground and can be grinded easily, or they had solid grappling but posed no danger on the feet, they just could not beat Bronson's wrestling and were evenly matched on the feet. Dricus hits the right balance you need to beat Brunson=heavy hands with enough grappling to cancel a lay and pray win. that is my take.

 

[Thesnake101]

Anyone think Blackshear is being overlooked? I think he's actually pretty solid and has the experience advantage here. He gassed in his last fight, but he took that on 10 days notice and still brought it to Zalal (who's underrated himself imo).

I'm not really sold on Farid as much as I am with his brother. He mostly looked good in his DWCS fight, but that was against a kind of mediocre brawler, and he hasn't run over his low-quality competition as much as he should have.

Hard to say because Farid did have an easy time in his Contender Series fight, but I'm definitely looking at the over instead of putting any cash on him at the moment.

Paying nearly -500 for a debuting guy who isn't much of a finisher is asking for trouble.

 

[rev0lver]

Hard to say because Farid did have an easy time in his Contender Series fight, but I'm definitely looking at the over instead of putting any cash on him at the moment.

Paying nearly -500 for a debuting guy who isn't much of a finisher is asking for trouble.

That's probably a good call. Farid's fought a bunch of bums and only has two finishes under 1.5. Blackshear has only one himself, and managed to reach scorecards against guys like Pat Sabatini and Danny Sabatello.

 

[Papi]

For the people saying this could be the biggest beat down in recent title fight history theres a real chance that gane looks like a complete white belt against jones on the ground. Like mentioned earlier this fight screams pass to me or if your a degenerate and need action I could only play gane considering all the factors with jones

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Welp...so much for playing Gamrot. Keeps getting steamed. -220 now. Starting to approach the fringes of where I consider Turner.

Ricci steamed too, fuck off on that LOL. I'll still play her but now gotta look at props. Probably still parlay her ML with one or two other plays.

Ricci -3.5 is +185 if you trust her to dominate

 

[StewDogg11]

I don't get the TIll/Brunson comparison.

Till only won rnd 2 and it was a low volume round, no real time i felt Dricus was in any danger.

Brunson doesn't have Till's chin, footwork or 1-2 punches. Brunson is basic on the feet, chinny, with good wrestling, but this is something Dricus can do at a solid level is wrestle or prevent himself from being floored and grinded on. If Dricus hits Brunson with the same punches he landed on Till in rnd 3, he will starch him. Dricus only looks bad when he blows his gas tank grappling, which he won't do against Brunson, plus even at a low gas tank Dricus can still hit hard till late rnd 3. His power never seems to fade.

Hell I don’t think Brunson would survive the barrage of punches du Plessis landed on Till against the cage in Round 1.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Hell I don’t think Brunson would survive the barrage of punches du Plessis landed on Till against the cage in Round 1.

If the sub prop is over 600+ i can see me playing that, if Dricus overwhealms Bruson in the 1st round, and Brunson goes into the fetal position , Dricus can take his back and sub him.

Edit: dricus 450+ sub still worthy of play.

Dricus has 5 rnc , 4 guillotines and a neck crank(like a rnc) its his go to move when he grounds someone even when he drops them.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Mana Martinez looks like a good dog pick. His last three fights were against decent guys, almost finished Ronnie Lawence.

Cameron's last fight against a guy straight from the regionals was not clean at all , could be because he is a grappler but even on the feet Cameron looked sloppy at times and drew blood. Mana has had to deal with beating better fighters, and he will be more on point having gone use to fighting more combat tested fighters, very weak lean on me but that is how i have it.

 

[Thesnake101]

Mana Martinez looks like a good dog pick. His last three fights were against decent guys, almost finished Ronnie Lawence.

Cameron's last fight against a guy straight from the regionals was not clean at all , could be because he is a grappler but even on the feet Cameron looked sloppy at times and drew blood. Mana has had to deal with beating better fighters, and he will be more on point having gone use to fighting more combat tested fighters, very weak lean on me but that is how i have it.

His fight with Davis was a horrible look though, he would've most likely lost that if not for dropping Brandon at the end of the second with a spinning backfist iirc.