UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

[Macaque]

I will play 1u on Edwards by SUB. Just a gut feeling
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Jesus that’s an ugly triangle lol.

 

[Russ82]

Fiziev gonna be much more evasive than Chandler.

I'm still not totally convinced by Fiziev. I need him to smash Gaethje to truly believe.

I think he's got a ton of talent, but have him down as a finesse striker as opposed to a wrecking ball.

I think his best chance against Gaethje is to simply outlast him, but that will also require Justin being given a reason to empty the tanks.

If Fiziev is as evasive as he needs to be, I think Gaethje might last longer...

Good points, I think Fiziev wins but I don't think it is free money like people say it is. Justin has rocked or hurt pretty much every top 5 fighter he has faced. 3 round fight, with his power and the possibility of a 10-8 round, I won't be betting on it.

If it was 5 rounds I would bet Fiziev heavily tho

 

[Benny 97]

Jesus that’s an ugly triangle lol.

Yeah it is. But that was almost 8 years ago. Leon wasn’t a good grappler back then. He improved a lot. I truly believe he will choke out Kamarudeen and win trilogy

 

[mkess101]

Yeah it is. But that was almost 8 years ago. Leon wasn’t a good grappler back then. He improved a lot. I truly believe he will choke out Kamarudeen and win trilogy

He also spent the majority of the rematch on his back and offered absolutely zero offense. The one sub attempt he had was off his own TD early on (he surprised Usman with that, and took mount directly off the TD--it was really well done by Leon).

Point being, the pic of the triangle from the first fight really is irrelevant. Leon has improved as a grappler, but Usman at this point has so much experience as well that it's extremely unlikely Leon would ever get close to doing that off his back. If Leon is gonna somehow get a sub, I think it would need to be by getting top position like he did in rd 1 last time and advancing to a dominant spot where he could maybe work for something.

 

[Benny 97]

He also spent the majority of the rematch on his back and offered absolutely zero offense. The one sub attempt he had was off his own TD early on (he surprised Usman with that, and took mount directly off the TD--it was really well done by Leon).

Point being, the pic of the triangle from the first fight really is irrelevant. Leon has improved as a grappler, but Usman at this point has so much experience as well that it's extremely unlikely Leon would ever get close to doing that off his back. If Leon is gonna somehow get a sub, I think it would need to be by getting top position like he did in rd 1 last time and advancing to a dominant spot where he could maybe work for something.

I respect your opinion. You make valid points & I’m not trying to change your mind!! But it’s important to note some trends and statistics.

1. Fighters who win rematch, end up winning trilogy (over 80% rate)

2. No defeated UFC champion successfully reclaimed their belt in an immediate rematch for 17 and a half years, until Figueiredo in 2022.

 

[Benny 97]

It’s worth noting that Nunes beat Juliana Peña. So this statistic is a bit outdated.

 

[benebox]

Morales should comfortably beat a sloppy brawler in Duncan. I'm surprised by the near even odds.

 

[Danis_champ]

Morales should comfortably beat a sloppy brawler in Duncan. I'm surprised by the near even odds.

I agree. Morales should have significant speed edge. He is also much more athletic.

I think age and two fight losing streak are making people bet against Omar but he only lost to Giga, Pearce and Medic. All these L's aged well. Duncan was very close to taking that L from regional journeyman.

 

[mkess101]

I respect your opinion. You make valid points & I’m not trying to change your mind!! But it’s important to note some trends and statistics.

1. Fighters who win rematch, end up winning trilogy (over 80% rate)

2. No defeated UFC champion successfully reclaimed their belt in an immediate rematch for 17 and a half years, until Figueiredo in 2022.

Fair. My point wasn't so much that Leon can't or won't win. (I don't think he will, but that wasn't what I was getting at.) My point was that showing a triangle off his back was likely completely irrelevant to how the fight plays out. Usman getting caught in that position at this point is extremely unlikely. Esp since Leon was on his back so much of the last fight and offered zero offense from there.

Also, I'd like to see how those other title trilogies played out. How many of them were the champ clearly winning but got caught very late with a hail mary strike that ended the fight? I have a feeling in most of them, the challenger that took the belt won more easily and handily and were likely the favorite going into the trilogy. I don't KNOW that, but I'd imagine it's true.

 

[Benny 97]

Fair. My point wasn't so much that Leon can't or won't win. (I don't think he will, but that wasn't what I was getting at.) My point was that showing a triangle off his back was likely completely irrelevant to how the fight plays out. Usman getting caught in that position at this point is extremely unlikely. Esp since Leon was on his back so much of the last fight and offered zero offense from there.

Also, I'd like to see how those other title trilogies played out. How many of them were the champ clearly winning but got caught very late with a hail mary strike that ended the fight? I have a feeling in most of them, the challenger that took the belt won more easily and handily and were likely the favorite going into the trilogy. I don't KNOW that, but I'd imagine it's true.

Leon almost choked him out in the rematch, in 1st round. I don’t have a huge bankroll, I’m kinda new to this gambling, so I can’t afford to pay -250 for a fighter with too many question marks. I rather play Fiziev at that price. Kamarudeen looked good because he had momentum and confidence. Fighting is 90% mental according to Gsp

 

[mkess101]

Leon almost choked him out in the rematch, in 1st round. I don’t have a huge bankroll, I’m kinda new to this gambling, so I can’t afford to pay -250 for a fighter with too many question marks. I rather play Fiziev at that price. Kamarudeen looked good because he had momentum and confidence. Fighting is 90% mental according to Gsp

IDK about "almost choked him out", but he did have a good sub attempt.

But again, like I said that was from him hitting his own TD and getting top position. My point was that it's extremely unlikely that he hits a triangle or other sub off his back at this point in each guy's career.

 

[Benny 97]

IDK about "almost choked him out", but he did have a good sub attempt.

But again, like I said that was from him hitting his own TD and getting top position. My point was that it's extremely unlikely that he hits a triangle or other sub off his back at this point in each guy's career.

It’s an interesting fight to debate because its a trilogy and we have 8 rounds of footage. But ultimately, we need @BigSteve to put our worries to rest.

 

[mkess101]

It’s an interesting fight to debate because its a trilogy and we have 8 rounds of footage. But ultimately, we need @BigSteve to put our worries to rest.

Ha ha, well I'm glad I trusted myself about the last ME and not Steve! But yeah I always want to know his thoughts.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Patterson Vs Yanal is just a levels fight imo, I'm not really sure why they signed Yanal although he's a pretty strong dude I guess. Sam is much more experienced and has mixed it with a much higher level of competition.

Probably because of how these two fights ended.






The UFC brass probably get a kick out of watching him abandon all caution on the feet. He doesn't have a ton of MMA based skills and should probably have a record below .500 but he has managed to make it work.

Patterson should be able to sub him quickly. The only way he has any chance is if Patterson strikes with him.

 

[rev0lver]

I agree. Morales should have significant speed edge. He is also much more athletic.

I think age and two fight losing streak are making people bet against Omar but he only lost to Giga, Pearce and Medic. All these L's aged well. Duncan was very close to taking that L from regional journeyman.

Duncan got absolutely mauled by Borschev, and was getting mauled by Campbell till he hit the KO. He's not UFC level. Morales is actually pretty decent, and he's pretty durable despite the KO from Medic (which might've been early, he looked immediately ready to defend). I don't see how Duncan wins this without getting a yolo KO. Line is an absolute steal.

 

[HighStakesMMA]

I like this card from an entertainment perspective but not so much a betting perspective. A couple things stand out to me:

- Fiziev has gassed in the past, i.e. the Bobby Green fight. If Gaethje can get past the initial onslaught he will be a very very live dog.

- Usman having to rebound from a brutal head kick is tough enough; he has also lost some of that "unbeatable" mystique that he had. I've never liked Usman's striking...he made Colby look like Oscar de la Hoya in their boxing exchanges. If he decides to try and wrestle, Leon will be live for a sub. Usman deserves to be a favorite but this line is wide and I think all the pressure will be on him. I like Leon to hang in there and probably find another late finish.

 

[Guld]

I like this card from an entertainment perspective but not so much a betting perspective. A couple things stand out to me:

- Fiziev has gassed in the past, i.e. the Bobby Green fight. If Gaethje can get past the initial onslaught he will be a very very live dog.

- Usman having to rebound from a brutal head kick is tough enough; he has also lost some of that "unbeatable" mystique that he had. I've never liked Usman's striking...he made Colby look like Oscar de la Hoya in their boxing exchanges. If he decides to try and wrestle, Leon will be live for a sub. Usman deserves to be a favorite but this line is wide and I think all the pressure will be on him. I like Leon to hang in there and probably find another late finish.

Both valid points.
EDIT: I imagine Usman is going to go 100% on wall n stall/cage grind tactic this time around. It's his "safest" path to victory, and you have to imagine that he's going to be avoiding as much risk as possible this time around.

 

[jnes]

I like this card from an entertainment perspective but not so much a betting perspective. A couple things stand out to me:

- Fiziev has gassed in the past, i.e. the Bobby Green fight. If Gaethje can get past the initial onslaught he will be a very very live dog.

- Usman having to rebound from a brutal head kick is tough enough; he has also lost some of that "unbeatable" mystique that he had. I've never liked Usman's striking...he made Colby look like Oscar de la Hoya in their boxing exchanges. If he decides to try and wrestle, Leon will be live for a sub. Usman deserves to be a favorite but this line is wide and I think all the pressure will be on him. I like Leon to hang in there and probably find another late finish.

Gassed in the past, but I think he's addressed it and his cardio held up in a tough 5 rounder.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Fizievs cardio is fine … it won’t be the slightest of factors

he’s the way better striker … gaethes leg kicks won’t work and neither will his uppercuts

Gaethe is getting laid out - it’s very obvious

 

[mkess101]

Probably because of how these two fights ended.






The UFC brass probably get a kick out of watching him abandon all caution on the feet. He doesn't have a ton of MMA based skills and should probably have a record below .500 but he has managed to make it work.

Patterson should be able to sub him quickly. The only way he has any chance is if Patterson strikes with him.

I hope they announce his fighting style as "A drunken brawler". Dude just drops his head and spams wild haymakers LOL. Luckily for him, his two opponents here decided to stand directly in front of him and never move their head.