UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2

Lots of dogs on this card who are intriguing but at the same time I see it being close but them losing a close fight.

For that reason I have a lot of 3.5 handicap bets on dogs. The dogs just need to win round 1 on the scorecard at least and not get finished outright for those bets to cash.
 
Anyone have any strong leans on the prize picks lines?
 
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Izzy-Perreira - who knows really? So much variance in span of three fights. The past results suggests Izzy dominates untill Perreira finds him. I think mostly its a mental challenge for Izzy. If he can keep his head straight and stays of the cage he should have it. Deep down he is much more complete fighter so any craziness should favor him. But so far hasnt been a case. Because Leon beat Usman the pick should be Perreira but somehow I feel it goes reverse here. Izzy by split decision.

Burns by dec. Thatsaboutit.

Holland by ko. Despite looking like a human punching and kicking bag vs Wonderboy he should recover well enough to stop Ponzi.
 
BigNick100 said:
Lots of dogs on this card who are intriguing but at the same time I see it being close but them losing a close fight.

For that reason I have a lot of 3.5 handicap bets on dogs. The dogs just need to win round 1 on the scorecard at least and not get finished outright for those bets to cash.
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Judging has been so bad lately that even the +3.5s aren’t safe. One 30-27 and you’re cooked unless it’s a split
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Judging has been so bad lately that even the +3.5s aren’t safe. One 30-27 and you’re cooked unless it’s a split
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That’s true, but personally it’s hard for me to put money on some of these dogs to win outright, so I went the safer route.

I lost count how many dogs I have been on but lost a close 29-28 fight where the +3.5 would have hit.

It also depends on if their +3.5 is plus money too compared to their ml. Example I bet Volk Vs Islam +5.5 which was +175 or so I believe, That cashed even though he lost the fight. The +275 on ml would have been a lost.

If you feel confident in a dog definitely play them. But I’m on the fence with most of these dogs and I can get their +3.5 at plus money or close to evens. So I went the route i feel has more of a chance to hit, and still at or around plus money on top of that.

Also gives me ammo to live bet the fight and add more bets if I like how the fight is going.
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
Excellent points. Another thing is that Calvillos problem has always been that while on the ground she is very dangerous, her wrestling and transitions from striking to the groundgame has always sucked. And it has seemed like she has enjoyed the striking aspect a bit too much when she should have been hunting for those TDs.

She does seem to be a popular dog though, its likely also slightly due to Loopy losing to Hill, so people think she sucks now and wants her to lose.

I feel like “revenge” betting is a real thing, even from overall sharps.
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I think the revenge betting thing could be a thing more so in mma betting. You couldn't have success doing so in nfl betting where a short memory is pretty much necessary. Loopy deserved to lose to Hill. She's got to know by now most of her losses have been because she followed the opposite of what she should've been doing.
 
Alex perreira has a bet boost at +400 on betway for itd. Probably gona throw $20 on. You'd think glover and the team would work on his grappling significantly here.

I have almost no faith in masvidal. 2 altercations during fight week. There's a 2nd video of him being held back by paulinho his boxing coach, yelling at someone. Could he starch burns? Hell ya he could but burns looks in peak conditioning and has almost nothing to lose here. Masvidal also had a bad breakup with FRM. dudes head seems elsewhere. Id rather take burns by ko in rd2 or 3.
 
carolinagrapple said:
Anyone have any strong leans on the prize picks lines?
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With betting lines so wide it's a bit tougher card. And lines got adjusted. I'm on Gastelum under 0.5 takedowns, thinking Curtis's elite TDD holds up or Kelvin doesn't even try for a TD. Also on Pinheira over 1.5 takedowns and Loopy under 3 takedowns (but it's at 2.5 now.) I'm on Williams over 2.5 takedowns (now 3), and Holland under 96.5 fantasy points. The unders for Burns and Rosa sig strikes, figure both to mostly grapple. Pyfer over fantasy pts, think he finishes Gerald.

My favorite play though is probably Izzy under 1.5 takedowns. He hit one last time off a weird caught kick. He's a kickboxer, and I think this talk of him becoming some sort of wrestler is off. Don't see it at all. His entries were poor last time, and I'd be surprised if he tries more than 3-4, and I don't really even think he gets one.
 
Not mine But the rapper Drakes. Wanna see $1.4M go up in smoke?

Here are Drake’s big bets:

  • Adesanya via KO: $400,000 to win $1,840,000
  • Adesanya win: $500,000 to win $885,000
  • Masvidal via KO: $200,000 to win $1,720,000
  • Masvidal to win: $300,000 to win $1,410,000
 
el tito said:
Font is 100% getting KO'd
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This is where we see if you just own this and come back for good, informative discussion void of "This is 100% gonna happen brah...".

Or...if we don't see you posting here anymore.
 
carolinagrapple said:
Not mine But the rapper Drakes. Wanna see $1.4M go up in smoke?

Here are Drake’s big bets:

  • Adesanya via KO: $400,000 to win $1,840,000
  • Adesanya win: $500,000 to win $885,000
  • Masvidal via KO: $200,000 to win $1,720,000
  • Masvidal to win: $300,000 to win $1,410,000
Click to expand...
Drake won $1,325,000 of pure profit. Not bad after 4 bets.
 
Omni1 said:
Drake won $1,325,000 of pure profit. Not bad after 4 bets.
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He's "lost" over $1m on multiple fights previously iirc. Most of the $ probably isn't his anyway.

Reports say he had $1.5m on Izzy last time vs Alex.
 
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