UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez, July 8

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UFC 290:
Alexander "Alex" Volkanovski vs. Yair Raziel Rodríguez Portillo

Odds:
https://fightodds.io/odds/4634/ufc-290-volkanovski-vs-rodriguez
https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-290-2834

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/98868-ufc-290
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/72402

Saturday July 8, 2023 at 6:00 PM eastern
U.S. Broadcast: Pay Per View
Prelims: ESPN
Promotion: Ultimate Fighting Championship
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

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https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...reat-volkanovski-vs-yair-el-pantera-rodriguez

https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...-moreno-vs-alexandre-the-cannibal-pantoja-iii

Alexander Volkanovski (0.5 inch reach advantage) is one of the best strikers in the entire UFC with high-level offensive and defensive wrestling, cardio for days, and a will to win that seems unmatched. Recently, each of his skillsets seems to have improved. His hands are just a bit faster, his footwork just a bit more impactful, he is carrying more power, and his hunger has only grown. On the feet, Volk is a masterclass of MMA striking. He has a cracking leg kick, which he uses at range often considering he is typically the shorter fighter. He moves with precision and explosion, using footwork and timing as weapons rather than just aspects of his game. He rarely throws a single shot at a time, instead able to string together unique and effective combinations. And, when he lands, he lands with accuracy and power. The most impressive aspect of Volkanovski’s game, though, are his feints. Given that he is often the shorter fighter, Volk has developed a truly great way of entering striking range. He is able to feint so effectively that he draws out an ill-advised, ill-timed, or poorly thrown strike from his opponent. From here, rather than a simple counter, Volk slips his opponent’s strike, cuts an angle, gets to his preferred spot, and lands an open and impactful combination. Few others are so seamlessly and consistently able to combine feints with footwork, timing, head movement, and combination striking. He is just that good. In the grappling department, an area that presumably will be tested, Volkanovski is also highly skilled. He is a stout fighter who uses his low center of gravity to get lower than his opponents. Then, he can drive his hips effectively to reverse positions on the cage or push off when he’s wrapped up. In the times that he’s hit the mat, Volkanovski has proven an ability to remain calm, work patiently through a tough position, and get back up through fundamentals and strength.

Yair Rodriguez (5 inches taller, 4 years younger) is one of the most athletically gifted strikers in the UFC. His ability to attempt, and land, video game-caliber strikes in an octagon against top-tier opponents as unbelievable as it is entertaining. These strikes, which often include some spinning component, are dangerous but highly volatile and taxing. Early in his career, Rodriguez seemed to attempt these unique strikes with little regard for the setup or outcome. He would suddenly jump or spin without baiting his opponent. Because of his athleticism and speed, the lack of a setup was not much of an issue, he landed some highlight-reel knockouts. But, as he climbed the rankings and faced better competition, Rodriguez’s flashy attacks came back to haunt him. He found that without setting up his shots, higher end fighters could react and evade, sometimes even counter, Rodriguez’s strikes. Then, without the success of his approach, Rodriguez was dragged into deep waters and the high-energy attacks drained his gas tank. Recently, though, Rodriguez seems to have evolved to set up his excellent striking with footwork and traps. Moreover, because he uses more setups, Rodriguez is able to better manage his cardio and fight with volume and danger for 25 minutes. His striking, when he puts it all together, is truly impressive. In fact, against Holloway, widely regarded as one of the best strikers on the roster, Rodriguez was landing with such speed, precision, and impact that Holloway was forced to go to plan B and wrestle. Even though he lost that fight, Rodriguez showed just how high-level his striking can be, how his cardio can go 5 rounds, and how he can defensively grapple even while fatigued.











UFC 290
 
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The Pantoja line is just crazy to me. What am I missing here? This should be a very even fight lined as a pick em in my opinion and instead Pantoja is huge dog. I don't get this at all? He beat Moreno twice (albeit long time ago) and has looked great recently. Moreno on the other hand has mostly fought Figgy, so it's kind of hard to really gauge how good he is. I thought the KKF fight was very close, maybe even Moreno was losing until the kick.
Pantoja might not have the 5 round experience, but he is a dog and I feel that he has a really good chance to take the first 3 rounds. I give the edge to Pantoja in both grappling and striking. The only concern (and it's big) is the cardio. I also belive that Pantoja has the finishing upside.

I took Pantoja for 2u. Not that I'm that confident in the pick just that the line is so not right.
So big bet for me on Pantoja.
 
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The Pantoja line is just crazy to me. What am I missing here? This should be a very even fight lined as a pick em in my opinion and instead Pantoja is huge dog. I don't get this at all? He beat Moreno twice (albeit long time ago) and has looked great recently. Moreno on the other hand has mostly fought Figgy, so it's kind of hard to really gauge how good he is. I thought the KKF fight was very close, maybe even Moreno was losing until the kick.
Pantoja might not have the 5 round experience, but he is a dog and I feel that he has a really good chance to take the first 3 rounds. I give the edge to Pantoja in both grappling and striking. The only concern (and it's big) is the cardio. I also belive that Pantoja has the finishing upside.

I took Pantoja for 2u. Not that I'm that confident in the pick just that the line is so not right.
So big bet for me on Pantoja.

I layed 255 to return 1000 on turner and pantoja

I’ve certainly been wrong before but I think pantoja is the better striker and grappler …. I think Morenos path that he can maybe win is if he can utilize wrestling to be on top for 3 or more rounds - but I’m banking that doesn’t happen
 


He is 5'7 in height, and he'll push an early pace and likely gas out or get clipped before gassing out.
 
The Pantoja line is just crazy to me.
Yep.

I put $200 on Pantoja +160. You can get Pantoja +175 and Yair +375 on certain books, but I unfortunately don't have access to those books while I'm abroad on vacation.

IMO, it's best to bet Pantoja's dog odds pre-fight, then focus on live betting Moreno if Pantoja can't get a finish or starts to slow down a little after the first two rounds. This is Pantoja's first 5-round fight in the UFC, and Moreno will have the cardio advantage the deeper the fight goes (not by a lot, but maybe enough to win close rounds against Pantoja who isn't used to the championship rounds.)
 


He is 5'7 in height, and he'll push an early pace and likely gas out or get clipped before gassing out.

He's also a LW. He's dead.
The Pantoja line is just crazy to me. What am I missing here? This should be a very even fight lined as a pick em in my opinion and instead Pantoja is huge dog. I don't get this at all? He beat Moreno twice (albeit long time ago) and has looked great recently. Moreno on the other hand has mostly fought Figgy, so it's kind of hard to really gauge how good he is. I thought the KKF fight was very close, maybe even Moreno was losing until the kick.
Pantoja might not have the 5 round experience, but he is a dog and I feel that he has a really good chance to take the first 3 rounds. I give the edge to Pantoja in both grappling and striking. The only concern (and it's big) is the cardio. I also belive that Pantoja has the finishing upside.

I took Pantoja for 2u. Not that I'm that confident in the pick just that the line is so not right.
So big bet for me on Pantoja.
Line definitely should be closer, but I think Moreno is the guy to side with in a 5 rounder.

As it stands though, Pantoja ML is definitely the best value for a pre-fight play.
 
The Pantoja line is just crazy to me. What am I missing here? This should be a very even fight lined as a pick em in my opinion and instead Pantoja is huge dog. I don't get this at all? He beat Moreno twice (albeit long time ago) and has looked great recently. Moreno on the other hand has mostly fought Figgy, so it's kind of hard to really gauge how good he is. I thought the KKF fight was very close, maybe even Moreno was losing until the kick.
Pantoja might not have the 5 round experience, but he is a dog and I feel that he has a really good chance to take the first 3 rounds. I give the edge to Pantoja in both grappling and striking. The only concern (and it's big) is the cardio. I also belive that Pantoja has the finishing upside.

I took Pantoja for 2u. Not that I'm that confident in the pick just that the line is so not right.
So big bet for me on Pantoja.

Lol since when is +155 a HUGE underdog rotflmao
 
Niko Price is my safest pick of the night, honestly he should be -500 by Saturday or even -600.

Robby is washed and done.
 
Niko Price is my safest pick of the night, honestly he should be -500 by Saturday or even -600.

Robby is washed and done.

niko is pretty terrible too though …. In a fight that will be all standup - is niko really that good ?

I did put a small 100 on him , Volk , Turner and pantoja to return 700+ …. But I feel like he’s iffy as hell … obviosuly pantoja /moreno is very close fight to but I like pantojas value …… Turner and Volk I feel are damn near locks (I know , never call someone a lock)

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niko is pretty terrible too though …. In a fight that will be all standup - is niko really that good ?

I did put a small 100 on him , Volk , Turner and pantoja to return 700+ …. But I feel like he’s iffy as hell … obviosuly pantoja /moreno is very close fight to but I like pantojas value …… Turner and Volk I feel are damn near locks (I know , never call someone a lock)

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I think you're safe, Barberina is a feather fisted fighter and he koed him.

I said it before everyone else noticed it, i told everyone that Robby looked weak against a washed Nick Diaz, and Nick landed 100+ strikes on Robby. Niko still hits hard and that is all you need to beat Robby at this point. He has maybe 1 good round and then he's done.
 
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