UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez, July 8

Rob is a much more skilled fighter,but DDP is a dog,he'll have the size advantage,and he hits hard,Rob is good at not getting hit,but at some point the wear n tear is gonna catch up to him,wonder if it's now...
 
Dricus absolutely sucks. I truly believe that he's the worst fighter to ever be ranked #5 in any division. He loses to every other guy in the top 15 besides Brunson (who is beyond old and washed now).

He fought Till who had no knees and nearly got finished in the second round. He fought a 39 year old Brunson and got worked in round 1. He has simply been lucky to get a couple of high profile opponents who were at the very end of their careers.

I don't buy the whole nose surgery thing. He is going to be punching in slow motion by round 2 as always.

If Whittaker loses to Dircus, I'll never bet on MMA again.
 
Good dogs
1. Menifield (+100) - 70% win probability
2. DDP (+300) - 50% win probability

Decent parlay
1. Turner/Price (-105)
 
Georges Hefner said:
I don’t think Rob’s head is 100% on MMA. I think he has other priorities (Skyrim, Dungeons & Dragons, etc)
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That's been the case for years now, Rob's been very open about playing League of Legends if I'm not mistaken. If that didn't rot his brain then no game will.
Bakayoko said:
Rob is a much more skilled fighter,but DDP is a dog,he'll have the size advantage,and he hits hard,Rob is good at not getting hit,but at some point the wear n tear is gonna catch up to him,wonder if it's now...
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Keep in mind Dricus couldn't finish Tavares and that Rob is exceptionally well at surviving. He's probably the most defensively sound fighter Dricus has fought ever, it's not low output Till or sloppy Brunson anymore.

I get the desire to back Dricus based on odds alone, but it's wishful thinking imo.
 
I’m attacking this card through accumulators mostly as I don’t really think their is a lot of lines with value. The only underdogs with value I can see are lawler or pantoja. The problem is lawler is shot physically but he still looks like he is their at least mostly skill wise. The main question is how shot is Niko. And with pantoja I think he wins the first st a high clip but I’ve seen him fade multiple times against relentless fighters like Askarov and Royval to a certain exstent so I’m on the fence if he can finish or keep up the pace with Moreno. So who is the better underdog to go for?
 
Thesnake101 said:
That's been the case for years now, Rob's been very open about playing League of Legends if I'm not mistaken. If that didn't rot his brain then no game will.

Keep in mind Dricus couldn't finish Tavares and that Rob is exceptionally well at surviving. He's probably the most defensively sound fighter Dricus has fought ever, it's not low output Till or sloppy Brunson anymore.

I get the desire to back Dricus based on odds alone, but it's wishful thinking imo.
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I just think Rob has difficulties against kickboxers. Dricus is a former K-1 kickboxer & holds a 2nd degree black belt in kickboxing. He’s the best striker Rob has faced outside of Adesanya
 
Georges Hefner said:
I just think Rob has difficulties against kickboxers. Dricus is a former K-1 kickboxer & holds a 2nd degree black belt in kickboxing. He’s the best striker Rob has faced outside of Adesanya
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K-1 style, as in ruleset, not K-1 the organization.

It's true that Rob struggles with striking specialists, but the ones who give him pause have a more patient, technical approach than what we see Dricus use. He's also way too consistent for me to fancy DDP here - Rob's literally only lost to Adesanya at MW and beaten everyone else, he also made his rematch with Israel far more competitive than their first fight and has only been stopped by strikes twice.

I'm not ruling out Du Plessis rocking him with something, I'm just arguing that it's unlikely it'll translate into a finish given how good Rob is.
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
That sucks, not the most exciting fight on the card but still fun to see Bo.
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Given they're just feeding him fodder for now, you'd think they could find a last minute sub.
 
#UFC290 projections from myself:

Jimmy Crute -142
Jesus Aguilar -170
Brandon Moreno -180
E Ribovics -183
Jalin Turner -185
Niko Price -200
Vitor Petrino -312
R Whittaker -350
C Saaiman -350
Alex Volkanovski -377
Yasmin Jauregui -445
Jack Della Maddalena -850
Tatsuro Taira -900
 
Valentine Woodburn taking the fight againdt Bo.. some William Knight lookalike. Probably a round 1 finish for Bo again.
 
Flexstyle said:
Valentine Woodburn taking the fight againdt Bo.. some William Knight lookalike. Probably a round 1 finish for Bo again.
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That's fucking raci...
20230704011456_Valentine_Woodburn.JPG


Never mind. You're right.
 
Tyrone woods said:
I’m attacking this card through accumulators mostly as I don’t really think their is a lot of lines with value. The only underdogs with value I can see are lawler or pantoja. The problem is lawler is shot physically but he still looks like he is their at least mostly skill wise. The main question is how shot is Niko. And with pantoja I think he wins the first st a high clip but I’ve seen him fade multiple times against relentless fighters like Askarov and Royval to a certain exstent so I’m on the fence if he can finish or keep up the pace with Moreno. So who is the better underdog to go for?
Click to expand...

I think there is value on Terrence Mitchell (+400) who is fighting Cameron Saaiman on short notice.

His technique on the feet is very sloppy but he does seem to hit very hard (he has knocked multiple opponents out cold), has an okay takedown game, and is good at latching onto submissions during transitions. I believe Terrence will have a six inch reach advantage as well.

I think the best bet for the fight is that it does not go the distance but I wouldn't be shocked to see Terrence club and sub Cameron early. The regional scene he fights on may be terrible but that doesn't mean he is not dangerous.
 
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