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UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez, July 8

DabanggData said:
#UFC290 projections from myself:

Jimmy Crute -142
Jesus Aguilar -170
Brandon Moreno -180
E Ribovics -183
Jalin Turner -185
Niko Price -200
Vitor Petrino -312
R Whittaker -350
C Saaiman -350
Alex Volkanovski -377
Yasmin Jauregui -445
Jack Della Maddalena -850
Tatsuro Taira -900
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First event ever without a underdog winning?
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I think there is value on Terrence Mitchell (+400) who is fighting Cameron Saaiman on short notice.

His technique on the feet is very sloppy but he does seem to hit very hard (he has knocked multiple opponents out cold), has an okay takedown game, and is good at latching onto submissions during transitions. I believe Terrence will have a six inch reach advantage as well.

I think the best bet for the fight is that it does not go the distance but I wouldn't be shocked to see Terrence club and sub Cameron early. The regional scene he fights on may be terrible but that doesn't mean he is not dangerous.
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It's hard to get a corect read with the level of competition,rare fighting and limited tape with extend fight time.First time he faced someone who's not a can he got completely erased and his defense was atrocious.It was KKF but still.The guy had a 5 year pause from 2018-2023 and he's not a fulltime MMA fighter.Would be pretty shocked if he wins
 
Bakayoko said:
It's hard to get a corect read with....... limited tape.
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All of his fights from the past 13 years, except the 2022 DQ win, are on UFC Fight Pass and Youtube. Tons of tape on the guy.

The KKF fight is not indicative of his ability whatsoever imo. Like I said he is very sloppy on the feet and because of that I have seen him hit with huge shots that would have knocked most people out but he fights back instead of covering up; no questioning the guys heart.

I do think Saaiman knocking him out in the first round is the most likely outcome but with how dangerous he is on the ground and on the feet he is a good underdog play imo.
 
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UFCIsNOTRigged said:
All of his fights from the past 13 years, except the 2022 DQ win, are on UFC Fight Pass and Youtube. Tons of tape on the guy.

The KKF fight is not indicative of his ability whatsoever imo. Like I said he is very sloppy on the feet and because of that I have seen him hit with huge shots that would have knocked most people out but he fights back instead of covering up; no questioning the guys heart.

I do think Saaiman knocking him out in the first round is the most likely outcome but with how dangerous he is on the ground and on the feet he is a good underdog play imo.
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You didn't fully quote me,I wrote limited tape with extended fight time,90% of fights finished in the first,no tape but one where he goes deep,in different situations,with higher lever fighters,Alaskan regional scene is bad,these are 90% cans.Guy has a side job and didn't have a fight in 5 years,subbin a negative record Alaskan guy doesn't mean much to me,I believe Cameron does take him out early
 
Just placed a 1.5U bet that I feel pretty good about.
Jalin Turner vs Dan Hooker U2.5 + Robert Whittaker vs Dricus du Plessis O1.5 @+125 (missed line movement on the O1.5 by literally 10 seconds, so that sucked a bit)

I think Jalin finishes Hooker in this fight. Hooker doesn't have good enough wrestling to get and hold Jalin down. If Gamrot struggled with Jalin, then Hooker is not doing it. On the feet I just feel that Hooker is too slow and too washed at this point. I played it a bit safe since Hooker does have good stand-up and this will most likely be a striking affair. Although unlikely Hooker could land something on Jalin. I feel that U2.5 should hit at a descent clip.

Whittaker has not finished anyone in ages, he has been a lot more defensive in his approach lately and i think he will be extra careful in the beginning of the fight and count on DDP to gas later.
I really don't see DDP finishing Whittaker here. Whittaker is way too solid for me to factor that... I mean it's a fist fight so anything can happen but, ye i don't see it...
DDP has been rocked or in danger in his 3 last fights at least. This is of course the big worry that Whittaker is just so much more technical and just dominates from start to finish. But DDP is a dog... a real dog that doesn't fold easy. I think he can survive for at least 1.5 round. Maybe he can do some cage stalling a pressure Whittaker against the fence. He would be an idiot if his game plan is to make this a technical kickboxing fight, so hopefully he can make it a bit ugly and run the clock a bit.
 
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Main event DNGTD -115... Thoughts on this?

It covers Yair landing something big but I think more likely Volk finishes him with GNP or a Sub
 
I have been mediocre at best for a while with my big picks, so who knows how on or off I am on this....but I have been waiting for this Pantoja fight for a long time.

Moreno puts himself in risky spots to get clipped or subbed all the time and just fights through it. I think that is a bad recipe against Pantoja. The guy is an assassin and will end your night in the blink of an eye. I'm taking Pantoja ml and Pantoja by stoppage. I cap him as a fav over any fighter in the division.

On a separate note, I think Yair is super live for an upset. Volk is my P4P #1 but at these current odds I have no problem taking a shot on Yair. He can hurt Volk on the feet and he can spring a sub if he's taken down. The amount I take him for will depend of Pantoja kills me or makes it rain for me.
 
Why is everyone betting on Jimmy Crute?
I don't get it.

Alonzo Menifield had trouble with his weight cut against Jimmy in the first fight due to major jet lag.
He should've won that fight, but the point deduction made it a draw.
Even a gassed out Menifield was able to clobber Jimmy multiple times.
 
Rhood said:
Why is everyone betting on Jimmy Crute?
I don't get it.

Alonzo Menifield had trouble with his weight cut against Jimmy in the first fight due to major jet lag.
He should've won that fight, but the point deduction made it a draw.
Even a gassed out Menifield was able to clobber Jimmy multiple times.
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Haven't picked a side myself but menefield tagged him multiple times with the same punch. Crute didn't move his head, feet or adjust his guard at all. It was reminiscent of Cody garbrant vs dillashaw
 
Rhood said:
Why is everyone betting on Jimmy Crute?
I don't get it.

Alonzo Menifield had trouble with his weight cut against Jimmy in the first fight due to major jet lag.
He should've won that fight, but the point deduction made it a draw.
Even a gassed out Menifield was able to clobber Jimmy multiple times.
Click to expand...

Wasn't Crute like -200 last time, and now it's almost evens? I wouldn't say that's "everyone" betting on Crute. Seems like the books adjusted based on what happened last time. You can say they didn't adjust enough (fair) but they've definitely adjusted.

I don't know what to make of this fight. It's hard to bet on a guy like Menifield that's gonna need big moments again to win rounds unless he finishes (which he clearly could based on him wobbling Jimmy so badly last time). Crute just isn't gonna stand with Alonzo at all though, so to me it's basically Alonzo's TDD vs Crute's TD's (and can Crute's cardio hold up enough to allow him to grapple nonstop until he gets a finish or wins 2 of 3 rounds).

I kind of think a pick 'em is right, not really much value either way.
 
Rhood said:
He should've won that fight, but the point deduction made it a draw.
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What if..

Alonzo grabbed the fence and it prevented clear takedown happening for Jimmy. There was like 3 minutes left of the final round. Perhaps Jimmy would have made damage there and even finish Alonzo with GnP. Point was deducted for a reason and it wasn't ref's random brainfart.

You asking why everyone betting Jimmy? I can tell you why I have big money bomb on him.

-He is the better minute winner
-He is younger and has improved while im not so sure about Alonzo
-Jimmy took his best shots and still didn't go away. I think Jimmy is smart enough to make adjustments.
 
Danis_champ said:
What if..

Alonzo grabbed the fence and it prevented clear takedown happening for Jimmy. There was like 3 minutes left of the final round. Perhaps Jimmy would have made damage there and even finish Alonzo with GnP. Point was deducted for a reason and it wasn't ref's random brainfart.

You asking why everyone betting Jimmy? I can tell you why I have big money bomb on him.

-He is the better minute winner
-He is younger and has improved while im not so sure about Alonzo
-Jimmy took his best shots and still didn't go away. I think Jimmy is smart enough to make adjustments.
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Of all the things I'd attribute to Crute intelligence is not one of them.

Odds are probably about right, Jim is gonna get tagged early again after failing to take down a fresh Menifield, but if he survives like he did last time he might able to once again fight his way back into it. I do wonder if we'll see one of those patient Menifield performances after last time though, he could probably sprawl his way into a decision if Jimmy's defense is still just as dogshit as before.
 
Pantoja at 2.60 feels like a big money play here.

Why is he getting disrespected so much? He can finish Moreno and/or take the first 3 rounds before cardio becomes an issue
 
How bad is JDMs opponent? Over 1.5 is +225.... and Harrell has been over 1.5 in 5/7 fights. I know JDM is a round 1 finishing machine but those look wide on 1st glance.

Edgar Chairez is decent and a competent grappler too. I'm on Taira Chairez over 1.5 at +100
 
MrShady said:
Pantoja at 2.60 feels like a big money play here.

Why is he getting disrespected so much? He can finish Moreno and/or take the first 3 rounds before cardio becomes an issue
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i would argue that Figgy is a better fighter than Pantoja, Moreno is more prepared for Pantoja, especially after all that 5 round experience back to back.

Pantoja's boxing is also something Moreno has over. Pantoja likes to swing wildly to the point that he'll leave his chin over exposed.

Just the idea that Moreno would lose the title after regaining it, seems unlikely , it just goes against the narrative or historical past events.

This is gonna be like Israel beating Alex and getting revenge. Just bcuz a guy won previously dont mean he will win always.
 
I'm on Hooker moneyline and rd 3/decision double when line is out. Theyre taking their sweet ass time with this.
 
ExitLUPin said:
I'm on Hooker moneyline and rd 3/decision double when line is out. Theyre taking their sweet ass time with this.
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Better donate to a dog shelter because blonde Hooker aint winning any more UFC fights.
 
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