UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez, July 8

Fanduel has a special of Rob Dricus, Volk Yair, Moreno Pantoja and Hooker Turner all 4 FDGTD at +650

Itd be +500 if you just parlayed FDGTD for all 4
 
King-Ryan said:
Ok I know I shouldn't use the "lock" world but I'm feeling good about having the line in parlays...

I don't touch lines like this unless I feel the fight is basicly a sacrafice... I wanted nothing to do with Guram last week and I'm not playing Whitaker, Taira, Volk, Saaiman etc...

This guy does have more MMA experience but when it comes to experience manhandeling people it's not even comparable. I'm positive Bo is the much stronger and more conditioned athlete... Not to mention Woodburn is on like 5 days notice and said he weighed like 210 or something when he got the call so his weight cut (if he makes 185) won't be fun.

Woodburn went to a DEC in his last fight against a 42 year old can. Bo isn't going to entertain striking for more then 5-10 seconds and once he decides it's time to go to the ground the fight will go to the ground and be over shortly after that.
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Bo has never been past the third minute of a fight. There is no way to know how his conditioning will look in a fight that enters the second round.

Having watched all of his opponents professional fights back I can tell you I don't think this guy is just going to roll over and tap to pressure. Bo may be able to run through him in a minute but I can see plenty of scenarios that cause the fight to run O1.5.

What if his opponent grabs the cage while Bo is expending a lot of energy on a takedown and then his opponent uses the cage wall to build back to his feet once or twice? If that happens Bo may be reluctant to continue squeezing aimlessly on an arm triangle he hasn't set up properly like he did against Pickett. Bo could then make the decision that his energy is best spent taking and keeping down his opponent rather than going for sub attempts.

There are a ton of scenarios that could prevent the fight from ending in U1.5 thats all I am saying. I do think the finish will come but when and how is not something anyone can be overly certain of.
 
So as we know, not all these big favorites are going to win. Who's the odd person(s) out?
 
Kazda1 said:
So as we know, not all these big favorites are going to win. Who's the odd person(s) out?
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Are you considering Moreno a "big" favorite at -200ish? I think Pantoja has a damn good shot.

Otherwise IDK. I know nothing about this Terrance Mitchell but I haven't been blown away by Saimann. He's good, I'm not saying he's a can or anything but -5xx is a STEEP line unless this Mitchell dude is just awful.
 
mkess101 said:
Are you considering Moreno a "big" favorite at -200ish? I think Pantoja has a damn good shot.

Otherwise IDK. I know nothing about this Terrance Mitchell but I haven't been blown away by Saimann. He's good, I'm not saying he's a can or anything but -5xx is a STEEP line unless this Mitchell dude is just awful.
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He is awful.
 
I don't know anything about Mitchell either, but I looked up his stats and he has 74" reach compared to Cameron 67" reach.
 
Rhood said:
I don't know anything about Mitchell either, but I looked up his stats and he has 74" reach compared to Cameron 67" reach.
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He's huge for flyweight but kind of big for nothing.
 
155 lbs.: Dan Hooker (155.5) vs. Jalin Turner (158*)

Everyone made weight except for Jalin Turner.
 
About time Turner started missing weight. He is getting older and frame is filling. WW next.
 
PuertoRican said:
155 lbs.: Dan Hooker (155.5) vs. Jalin Turner (158*)

Everyone made weight except for Jalin Turner.
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I had a feeling he was gonna miss weight. Bigger guys usually weigh in ASAP to start the rehydration process.

I think he weighed in last so he must've been trying to get down more and just couldn't.
 
mkess101 said:
Haha fair enough!
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I do get why he'd seem a bit tempting though, it's just that his best opposition was his 30 second KO loss to KKF on TUF, and the rest is Alaskan guys. His brother, Maurice, also was similar and ended up getting ran over in a round by Jordan Griffin.

He might make things a little awkward for Cameron early, but more in a "wow, he lasted longer than expected" way rather than a "oh wow, he's winning".

Having said that, Brener was a thing so anything could happen.
 
mkess101 said:
Are you considering Moreno a "big" favorite at -200ish? I think Pantoja has a damn good shot.

Otherwise IDK. I know nothing about this Terrance Mitchell but I haven't been blown away by Saimann. He's good, I'm not saying he's a can or anything but -5xx is a STEEP line unless this Mitchell dude is just awful.
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These days I'm kind of jaded by UFC betting but will try and find decent underdog plays here and there. I just know the majority of these favorites aren't going to win. UFC events where all favorites win are rather rare.

I wouldn't consider Moreno a huge favorite, but he's too big a favorite to have lost twice already to the same guy. While I understand the argument that Pantoja's never fought in a 5 round fight, Moreno was outclassed in a 3 round affair thoroughly by him. This 5 round fight could be won in 3 of the first 5 rounds and Pantoja has to do nothing from that point on but survive until the end to win on points. The 5 rounds argument in a moot point in my eyes.

But anyways, I wasn't blown away by Saaiman either. He strikes me as the type of guy who's winning a fight all the way up until the point at which he isn't. He seemed to be pretty hittable too, so who knows. Mitchell getting sparked by KKF doesn't mean much seeing as though we know where KKF is these days. Saaiman isn't that (that we know of yet). Maybe I'll take a flyer on Mitchell?

I just feel like I'd rather lose money doing that on Yair, knowing what I'm going to get.
 
Pantoja is 2-0 against Moreno, how much is that going to affect Moreno or has Moreno leveled up 2 much?

Volk is the LOCK of the year, bye Yair lol, so overrated.

Whittaker is in danger here... odds are OFF!
 
Does anyone know where I can find some of Mitchell's recent full fights?
 
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