UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira, November 11

[mkess101]

Frevola via DEC @ 9.50

Probably end up being a controversial decision.

Tank me later. (and be grateful)

Doubt he can withstand the kind of pressure BSD brings for basically every minute of every fight. I can't blame you at those odds at all, but if Frevola wins I think it's because he finds a KO.

 

[usernamee]

Doubt he can withstand the kind of pressure BSD brings for basically every minute of every fight. I can't blame you at those odds at all, but if Frevola wins I think it's because he finds a KO.

Yeah I probably just got my dick too hard looking at those odds alongside with me having been extremely low on Frevola in the past in terms of skills. But then he went out and KO'ed Dober and I completely flip-flopped on him.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Just watched the face off between Rebecki and Roosevelt. Rebecki was obviously going to be shorter, but I was kind of surprised how much smaller he looked overall.

 

[Thesnake101]

Just watched the face off between Rebecki and Roosevelt. Rebecki was obviously going to be shorter, but I was kind of surprised how much smaller he looked overall.

Don't get deceived by that, Rebecki will either maul him on the mat or chop him down with leg kicks.

Roberts is like 6'2 I think too.

 

[mkess101]

Honestly, I'm kind of seeing more people here on Frevola than I thought I'd see. Not that he's a bum at all, he's not. But man...some guys are just wired differently imo and BSD is one of them. Guys always talk about "breaking their opponent" but very few can actually consistently do it. BSD does. Dude is a terminator. A skilled one. He's hittable sure, but also has insane recovery and when he does get stung he also always makes his opponent pay.

His lone loss, a decison to Zaleski, is aging pretty well. Zaleski just took Rinat to the brink in that draw, and almost finished him late. Has a KO win over the current MIDDLEWEIGHT champ FFS. Zaleski is an underrated beast with no quit in him and obviously terrific cardio. It's not a bad loss at all. BSD has broken every other guy he's faced.

Frevola has skills, but he's also reckless at times. And will be at a grappling disadvantage.

It's not that I think this is a cakewalk for BSD or that Frevola can't win. I just don't see any value really. I think BSD takes this around 7/10 times (likely finishing) so +185 or whatever on Frevola doesn't make sense to play to me.

 

[Thesnake101]

Honestly, I'm kind of seeing more people here on Frevola than I thought I'd see. Not that he's a bum at all, he's not. But man...some guys are just wired differently imo and BSD is one of them. Guys always talk about "breaking their opponent" but very few can actually consistently do it. BSD does. Dude is a terminator. A skilled one. He's hittable sure, but also has insane recovery and when he does get stung he also always makes his opponent pay.

His lone loss, a decison to Zaleski, is aging pretty well. Zaleski just took Rinat to the brink in that draw, and almost finished him late. Has a KO win over the current MIDDLEWEIGHT champ FFS. Zaleski is an underrated beast with no quit in him and obviously terrific cardio. It's not a bad loss at all. BSD has broken every other guy he's faced.

Frevola has skills, but he's also reckless at times. And will be at a grappling disadvantage.

It's not that I think this is a cakewalk for BSD or that Frevola can't win. I just don't see any value really. I think BSD takes this around 7/10 times (likely finishing) so +185 or whatever on Frevola doesn't make sense to play to me.

It makes sense when you look at his approach though, it will be a tough one to deal with up until his body starts giving out. Frevola may be reckless, but Benoit has no defense on the feet, his defense is quite simply his offense which could backfire if Matt's newfound KO power rears its head once again.

I'm not touching the fight because of that. Durability is firmly on the side of Benoit, but Matt's power gives me pause.

 

[mkess101]

It makes sense when you look at his approach though, it will be a tough one to deal with up until his body starts giving out. Frevola may be reckless, but Benoit has no defense on the feet, his defense is quite simply his offense which could backfire if Matt's newfound KO power rears its head once again.

I'm not touching the fight because of that. Durability is firmly on the side of Benoit, but Matt's power gives me pause.

Fair, though I do think BSD can also use Frevola's recklessness against him by timing a TD and if he puts Frevola on his back, that could very well spell the beginning of the end. There's a distinct grappling edge on the side of BSD.

Which is why while I think Frevola can win, it's maybe a 30% chance. So getting +185 just provides no value at all which was why I was a bit surprised to see a number of people on him. Some with a lot of confidence.

 

[sonhow]

BSD is going to "smesh" Frevola. Dont doubt the "God of War". If he had off switch in him they (his past opponents) would have found it by now. Train aint stopping here.

 

[mkess101]

BSD is going to "smesh" Frevola. Dont doubt the "God of War". If he had off switch in him they (his past opponents) would have found it by now. Train aint stopping here.

I tend to agree. Dude is a savage. Probably won't have a super long career the way he fights but while he's in his prime he's gonna be hell for whoever they put in front of him.

Frevola does seem to hit like a truck if he lands clean though. There's always a chance, especially because BSD doesn't care much about defense and is just in constant seek-and-destroy mode.

 

[sonhow]

I tend to agree. Dude is a savage. Probably won't have a super long career the way he fights but while he's in his prime he's gonna be hell for whoever they put in front of him.

Frevola does seem to hit like a truck if he lands clean though. There's always a chance, especially because BSD doesn't care much about defense and is just in constant seek-and-destroy mode.

I'm 100% on BSD here...

but cant blame anyone throwing buck or two on Frevola ko rd1 prop since he seems to be getting those lately lol. I cant see sceanrio where he wins outside of that. If it goes to second he's gonna be broken. Matt is pretty tough I give him that. Impressive that he lasted to decision with Arman. So not sure what the winning prop for BSD is going to be.

 

[Dooze]

I'm a bit tempted on;

- Jiri sub @ 9.5
- Sabatini @ 1.8
- Madsen dec @ 3.6
- Some sort of parlay of BDS @ 1.45, Emmers @ 1.4 and/or Aspinall fight u1.5 @ 1.47

Not really done much research into this though.

Jiri should be the bigger guy and I remember Israel having success with grappling at 185 and Jan in his last fight, but then I guess he's not really shown much urgency to actually push takedowns and grapple much outside of some success against Glover after being grapplefucked a bit and maybe a takedown or two against Reyes so it'll be relying a bit on Jiri to either decide to change things up after the injury and go down a path of least resistance, or for him to drop Alex and then capitalise. I dunno if I'm just getting sucked in by the big odds and him snatching a choke on an exhausted Glover.

Sabatini I tend to be quite high on, although that did cost me in the Jackson fight. I do rate Sabatinis wrestling and top game though and see it mostly being a grappling affair where Lopes is fighting most of the fight off of his back throwing up submissions as his main threat and Sabatini using a suffocating top game towards a decision or potential submission himself should a choke opportunity open up. I'm not overly well versed with Lopes though other than him subbing Tucker who I do rate but think inactivity and age has left his career as more of a 'what if'.

Madsen is more questionable. I think the odds of the decision - the only real way I see him winning - might be sucking me in. His age is a concern and if he can't get it to the ground either consistently or early enough to keep Gordon down then he's realistically losing the fight against Gordon who seems like a bit of a meat and potatoes style fighter, and almost a bit of a throwback to the wrestle boxer who has a basic striking game, serviceable though not spectacular wrestling and that's about it. He deserved the win over Paddy mind and the Green fight was just weird so not much to take from that. My head is screaming 29-28 either way. Those more familiar with them both, is Madsen likely to be able to ground Gordon and keep him there? I don't really remember Gordon having stellar TDD but then despite Madsens credentials he's not really overawed me with his wrestling either.

Parlay wise, Emmers I remember being a bit high on at times but know nothing of his opponent. Emmers does seem a bit flakey though so I'm not sure if he's worth the price. BDS is impressive, a short notice loss at 170 against a decent guy isn't too big a criticism and to go with his aggression and recovery he's very well rounded. Frevola himself seems a solid fighter and seems to now be coming into his own a bit power wise, 3 KOs in a row including a latest win against a surging Dober and his Turner win has aged very well. I think BDS is the rightful favourite but I dunno if odds wise are good enough to include BDS in a parlay against such a game fighter in Frevola. Aspinall under is self explanatory.

I thought writing this would help me settle on these bets but have probably just raised more uncertainty. Anyone able to offer a bit more insight on some of them?

 

[po_thead]

I think it's a losing play to hunt long odds on a submission more often than not. That said, I feel like attacking for subs might be the easiest path for both Aspinall and Jiri tonight. Just hard to pull the trigger with those KO rates.

 

[Thesnake101]

Lmao, that was quick.

 

[sonhow]

We not gonna have pbp for this card lol?

Or gonna be this thread?

 

[Stat_Collector]

i thought it was a big mismatch.

 

[svmr_db]

We not gonna have pbp for this card lol?

Or gonna be this thread?

I'll make one

 

[sonhow]

i thought it was a big mismatch.

Yeah I'm kinda pissed I didnt go more for Emmers. Some reports seemed to like this kid but didnt look like he belonged at all.

 

[Thesnake101]

i thought it was a big mismatch.

Wish I had used his itd line on anything aside from a meme parlay tbh. Shit was almost +300, felt he was due a finish against a low level guy.

Ah well, had Jamall's ML on all of my lays so it ain't so bad.

 

[svmr_db]

PBP thread is up

https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-295-pbp-discussion.4314492/