UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira, November 11

[magpie878]

I'll come out and say it but tbh Aspinall, alex, and jiri shouldn't be fighting for belts. If you look at Aspinalls record in an unbias way, he hasnt had many fights in the UFC and the caliber of opponents were incredibly low, save for Volkov. But Aspinall is legit and he passes the eye test, so it is deserved but still.... Alex just got KOd then he only has 1 lukewarm decision win at LHW over 42 year old Jan where he gave up 8 minutes of control time in a 15 minute fight..... And jiri, despite being previous champ, has lots of question marks coming off major injury and I still haven't been able to find any recent training footage of him. And he only has 3 total wins in the UFC. All of the fights are good matchmaking, but I can't believe how shallow HW and LHW are where these are the best contenders they can find, while a division like WW is backed up so far no one really knows who is the best fighter of the division.

If anyone is going to question Aspinall's record, they should certainly take a close look at Pavlovich's as well.

 

[Guld]

This is going to be a just bleed type card for me betting on a lot of ITD.

On paper, it sure looks that way. Let's hope so.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Damn this is a crazy take, no offense. Ricci is too small and harmless to ever sniff the title. The fact she keeps losing rounds to Oliveira, Viana, Gillian when she has the perfect fight for her style is all you need to know. She is serviceable at best.

No offense taken. I like her trajectory. She may not be there on tape yet. I agree that she is very small, but I like the athleticism and grappling. Willing to fall on the sword here. I haven't been betting much on MMA recently due to some cold NFL betting, and I'm putting 2 units on her.

 

[Don Sharpe]

Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) Vs Tom Aspinall (13-3)

The interim heavyweight title is up for grabs in the Co-Main of UFC 295.

Pavlovich has 7 UFC fights and none of them have seen the second round.

Aspinall has 7 UFC appearances as well and we have only seen one fight extend to the second round; all others concluded within the first.

This matchup promises excitement for however long it lasts.

Both fighters are known for their knockout prowess, yet I give the edge to Aspinall for his speed and superior defensive skills.

In my prediction, Aspinall secures the victory within the first 3 rounds.

Pick: Tom Aspinall ML (-120)

 

[Kenny95]

If anyone is going to question Aspinall's record, they should certainly take a close look at Pavlovich's as well.

blaydes is legit, tuivasa and black beast are pretty decent, plus hes strung together more wins in the UFC. There's really no one with a stronger case for #1 contender in the UFC besides Pav. Aspinall and jailton almeida are about tied for 2. really shit division... Ganes losses are too fresh in recent memory and spivac just got spanked by gane.

 

[magpie878]

I used to think much higher of Blaydes. The recent fights, previous to Pavlovich, were an injury win vs Aspinall. A win over a terrible Daukaus, who can't beat ANYONE remotely good. Very much a lay-and-pray win vs Frozenstruik, who clocked him but could do nothing else. Awful loss to Lewis. Another takedown and lay, repeatedly vs Volkov (where Blaydes gassed and looked bad late).. none all that impressive, thought he was much better before all those. Tuivasa is barely decent.

I could make cases for several of Aspinall's opponents too. It's not hard to give limited facts to back a narrative. I just don't think either's record is all that impressive. And I like both guys a lot. NOW each is fighting a literal top guy. I'm very much looking forward to it.

 

[Psychojoe86]

One thing I want to point out regarding main and co main: both are likely to end via finish

the valuable bets might be from picking ITD or ko for all 4 fighters. The over/under for both is 1.5 so maybe not as good, but I believe both fights are ending in less than 2 rounds

 

[Thesnake101]

Everyone makes weight except Emmers (147lbs) and Roberts (158lbs).

 

[Stat_Collector]

Costa over Erceg. Erceg is very hittable.

 

[PuertoRican]

Castaneda vs Kang is a 138 catchweight.

I looked at Castaneda history to see why it's a catchweight, but no info. But I did notice a trend with Castaneda having weight issues for his entire career:

Catchweight fights: he's 5-1
Missed weight fights: he's 1-0

 

[Dooze]

I used to think much higher of Blaydes. The recent fights, previous to Pavlovich, were an injury win vs Aspinall. A win over a terrible Daukaus, who can't beat ANYONE remotely good. Very much a lay-and-pray win vs Frozenstruik, who clocked him but could do nothing else. Awful loss to Lewis. Another takedown and lay, repeatedly vs Volkov (where Blaydes gassed and looked bad late).. none all that impressive, thought he was much better before all those. Tuivasa is barely decent.

I could make cases for several of Aspinall's opponents too. It's not hard to give limited facts to back a narrative. I just don't think either's record is all that impressive. And I like both guys a lot. NOW each is fighting a literal top guy. I'm very much looking forward to it.

I think Blaydes, Pavlovich and Aspinall are all elite HWs. Blaydes primary problem is just he's not got an amazing chin which I think will hold him back from winning the belt or on the rare chance he does manage to, defending it. I'd say he's a level below Aspinall and Pavlovich mind.

Aspinall for his UFC career has generally put away everyone you would expect him to with relative ease and I think in his finish of a solid gatekeeper in Volkov for me showed he's a cut above and in that elite tier of HW.

Pavlovich I think the way he's ran through his last 3 opponents especially (I think the Curtis win is his first win amongst the elite, while Lewis and Tai are solid gatekeepers) shows that he's at a higher level.

Either way, I'd expect Aspinall and Pavlovich to be in the top 5/6 for the next few years alongside Jones and Gane (assuming Jones doesn't retire).

Really looking forward to the Pavlovic/Aspinall fight and find it difficult to have a lean other than it should be a barnburner for as long as it lasts.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Castaneda vs Kang is a 138 catchweight.

I looked at Castaneda history to see why it's a catchweight, but no info. But I did notice a trend with Castaneda having weight issues for his entire career:

Catchweight fights: he's 5-1
Missed weight fights: he's 1-0

he's very undisciplined. I'm gonna play Kang round 3.

 

[B.Goetz]

BSD by KO/DEC (EV) $32.25 to win $32.25
Frevola by KO/DEC (+225) $15.00 to win $32.25

A bet on BSD by KO/DEC, with a hedge of "nobody gets submitted." Smart?

 

[Psychojoe86]

Jared Gordon -192

Lopes +100
Lopes sub +275

St denis ko +185
Frevola ko +315
Under 1.5 -145

Dern sub +120

looking interested in all these so far

 

[Psychojoe86]

BSD by KO/DEC (EV) $32.25 to win $32.25
Frevola by KO/DEC (+225) $15.00 to win $32.25

A bet on BSD by KO/DEC, with a hedge of "nobody gets submitted." Smart?

The risk comes from when a fighter with good hands rocks a foe then snags a choke while they’re down. I don’t recall seeing that type of finish from either fighter but that’s the risk

guys like Jalin Turner and even Jack della cost me money with those results

 

[Don Sharpe]

Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) Vs Alex Pereira (8-2)

In a highly anticipated matchup, we have two competitors with true knockout power.

Pereira, the fan favorite, brings an exceptional kickboxing background to the octagon.

Prochazka, the former light heavyweight champion, makes a comeback after recovering from a severe shoulder injury.

Despite making his UFC debut more than a year later than Prochazka, Pereira has already participated in 6 UFC fights, while Prochazka has had 3.

Both fighters have the ability to create highlight-reel moments at any given second, adding an extra layer of excitement to this must-see title fight.

In my prediction it will be Jiri who emerges victorious and I believe he will win via KO.

Pick: Jiri Prochazka ML (+100)

 

[Psychojoe86]

Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) Vs Alex Pereira (8-2)

In a highly anticipated matchup, we have two competitors with true knockout power.

Pereira, the fan favorite, brings an exceptional kickboxing background to the octagon.

Prochazka, the former light heavyweight champion, makes a comeback after recovering from a severe shoulder injury.

Despite making his UFC debut more than a year later than Prochazka, Pereira has already participated in 6 UFC fights, while Prochazka has had 3.

Both fighters have the ability to create highlight-reel moments at any given second, adding an extra layer of excitement to this must-see title fight.

In my prediction it will be Jiri who emerges victorious and I believe he will win via KO.

Pick: Jiri Prochazka ML (+100)

This fight definitely could go either way, but it feels like a better opportunity for Alex pereira.

jiri went to war with texiera, who less than a year later was overwhelmed and beaten into retirement by jamahal hill. Jiri has extraordinary durability though for sure… but poor striking defense

I believe Alex is too skilled and powerful. He will knock out jiri in round 2 after adjustments from the first

 

[mkess101]

BSD by KO/DEC (EV) $32.25 to win $32.25
Frevola by KO/DEC (+225) $15.00 to win $32.25

A bet on BSD by KO/DEC, with a hedge of "nobody gets submitted." Smart?

BSD came up a grappler, you know that right? Lot of action on the Euro grappling circuit with good success. Dude has finished all 12 wins...9 subs and only 3 KO's.

I don't favor BSD to win by sub, but it's definitely live.

 

[usernamee]

Frevola via DEC @ 9.50

Probably end up being a controversial decision.

Tank me later. (and be grateful)

 

[Stat_Collector]

Im also on the Jiri train.

More lhv experience in mma. Looks like the more natural lhw.

Alex is a big guy but he looks very average as a lhw in size. That wiry build is better suited at middleweight or a cruiserweight in boxing. At 205 his size and power are equalized.

Consider too that Jiri hits harder than Izzy, Jiri's ko prop is in play here.