UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira, November 11

[guesswhoseback]

I absolutely guarantee Miocic would be getting PPV points.

exactly i would guess he would get at least 5 times more money to fight jones then he would the other 2

 

[B.Goetz]

I like Dern (-177, BOL) a lot. Andrade is on her way out, and Dern has title ambitions.

Sadykhov (-155), BSD (-200), and Loopy (-132) also on my radar.

Jiri likes to fight with his hands down, but when he slowed down against Glover in the later rounds it was getting him punched quite a lot by slow, old, but technically sound Glover. Considering Pereira. OTOH, I could see Pereira get rag-dolled by Jiri, who is huge and very strong.

 

[Thesnake101]

Might take a small stab on Lopes just because of how active his guard is and how Sabatini once got his arm mangled by James Gonzalez years ago.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Joshua Van to win
Steve Erceg to win

Pure striking & versatile.

 

[Kenny95]

I like Dern (-177, BOL) a lot. Andrade is on her way out, and Dern has title ambitions.

Sadykhov (-155), BSD (-200), and Loopy (-132) also on my radar.

Jiri likes to fight with his hands down, but when he slowed down against Glover in the later rounds it was getting him punched quite a lot by slow, old, but technically sound Glover. Considering Pereira. OTOH, I could see Pereira get rag-dolled by Jiri, who is huge and very strong.

do we have any training vids of jiri? His IG has no training vids. If his shoulder is as serious as reported I would want to see how he looks and moves around first. If alex didnt just get chinned by Izzy recently I would have a lot more confidence in him. I currently have a small ML play on alex and I will be looking to live bet either fighter if the fight lasts long enough.

 

[Stat_Collector]

i honestly hate this card. too many 50/50 fights , except Emmers


looks like a prop bet type card.

 

[Thesnake101]

i honestly hate this card. too many 50/50 fights , except Emmers


looks like a prop bet type card.

I like him, Castañeda and Van. Other than that, I agree with you.

There's a few lines I don't understand, like Gordon at -175 over Madsen. Think that should be closer since I could see a world where Mark gets off to a good start and grinds out the first two rounds.

 

[Kenny95]

I like him, Castañeda and Van. Other than that, I agree with you.

There's a few lines I don't understand, like Gordon at -175 over Madsen. Think that should be closer since I could see a world where Mark gets off to a good start and grinds out the first two rounds.

yep I took madsen at +175 opening. Gordon is benefiting heavily from the paddy "robbery" hype talk. No shame in omadsen losing to dawson via backpack and sub. He did it to ismagulov for 15 minutes as well, only way to beat dawson is starching him like green or hoping he gasses.

 

[Thesnake101]

yep I took madsen at +175 opening. Gordon is benefiting heavily from the paddy "robbery" hype talk. No shame in omadsen losing to dawson via backpack and sub. He did it to ismagulov for 15 minutes as well, only way to beat dawson is starching him like green or hoping he gasses.

That's a pretty good line. A similar one is Viacheslav opener's, think he was even wider.

Couldn't get my hands on it though, if Nazim looks as hittable as he did against Elder I don't see why Borschev shouldn't win honestly.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I like him, Castañeda and Van. Other than that, I agree with you.

There's a few lines I don't understand, like Gordon at -175 over Madsen. Think that should be closer since I could see a world where Mark gets off to a good start and grinds out the first two rounds.

Casteneda really?

Im hesitant because of his cardio. Tends to lose the third round. Kang is always that guy that mounts a comeback. And he has a solid chin. There is a high possibility for a decision, it’s not like Kang can’t strike.

 

[BigSteve]

Casteneda really?

Im hesitant because of his cardio. Tends to lose the third round. Kang is always that guy that mounts a comeback. And he has a solid chin. There is a high possibility for a decision, it’s not like Kang can’t strike.

When has Casteneda lost a 3rd round in the UFC? He breaks people all the time

 

[Stat_Collector]

When has Casteneda lost a 3rd round in the UFC? He breaks people all the time

why does it have to be the ufc?

Alday fight , near all of his losses are decision losses. He was winning against Santos until he wasn’t and slowed down badly.

The majority of his wins are finishes. He comes off strong in the first two rounds and then you see a drop in activity.

This looks like a live bet fight.

I’m not that interested in it to be honest.

 

[Thesnake101]

Casteneda really?

Im hesitant because of his cardio. Tends to lose the third round. Kang is always that guy that mounts a comeback. And he has a solid chin. There is a high possibility for a decision, it’s not like Kang can’t strike.

The only times I've seen John lose the third in the was when he got outclassed by Wood. He finished Johns in the third and also got that round against Gafurov. I guess you could point at the Santos fight as well, but he blew his load pursuing a finish, don't think he'll be keen on doing that again.

I don't think Kang staging a late comeback is a foregone conclusion. Hell, I saw Kang drop that round against a notoriously gassy one dimensional BJJ guy in Yahya. John is someone that will force the issue, and I think that will mess with Kang.

 

[Stat_Collector]

The only times I've seen John lose the third in the was when he got outclassed by Wood. He finished Johns in the third and also got that round against Gafurov. I guess you could point at the Santos fight as well, but he blew his load pursuing a finish, don't think he'll be keen on doing that again.

I don't think Kang staging a late comeback is a foregone conclusion. Hell, I saw Kang drop that round against a notoriously gassy one dimensional BJJ guy in Yahya. John is someone that will force the issue, and I think that will mess with Kang.

There are plenty of regional fights that show him fade in the third. Kang got grounded sure by a good credential grappler. Casteneda has yet to secure good ground ctrl in the ufc.

I dont see anything in particular that gives John a massive edge here.

I mean what specifically do you see John do better than Kang?

Kang has dealt with a heavier striker in Danaa , what does John do better than Danaa?

Kang also has more ufc experience, training for better competition , beats combate mma in mexico.

I’m not that crazy about it, i look at it as a 50/50 so John can win it , but there is no way id lean anything over 60%

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I think I like the line on Perriera at the moment.
Jiri could go for the grappling which would be a big concern, but he hasn't really grappled in the past so nothing suggest he would do that this time... could be wrong here of course. The smart game plan would be to take it to the ground, but same could been said for the Reyas and Volkan fights as well.
Also, Jiri coming off "the worst should injury Dana has ever seen" or whatever it was. If there is any truth to that then surely this is not a good thing for Jiris wrestling. Both can get the KO for sure, but I like Alex chances a bit more.

 

[Thesnake101]

why does it have to be the ufc?

Alday fight , near all of his losses are decision losses. He was winning against Santos until he wasn’t and slowed down badly.

The majority of his wins are finishes. He comes off strong in the first two rounds and then you see a drop in activity.

This looks like a live bet fight.

I’m not that interested in it to be honest.

I mean, the majority of Kang's wins are also finishes. His most recent two were both first round subs and past that, he's not usually someone who usually puts a stamp on his fights which is why he went to a split with some mediocre guys like the chinese dude he fought and Brandon Davis.

I also think the Santos fight was an outlier for John since he went really hard for a finish, maybe he'll do that again, maybe not. For me, it's just a style thing, I think John's pressure will be more than enough to overwhelm Kang and let him take control of the fight early.

I also give more importance to Castañeda's UFC fights because it's his most recent footage, can't put much stock on fights from 5 years ago and such, his win over Johns alone stands out for me as the best win either guy have notched in the past few years.

I don't particularly rate Danaa or Quiñonez, had Kang against both, maybe that's why I feel more confident on John here - could be a case of me getting ahead of myself and thinking I've got Kang aptly rated.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I’m very confident in Pereira and Pavlovich. Especially Pavlovich. I always seen him as a future champ. Aspinall, not so much.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I mean, the majority of Kang's wins are also finishes. His most recent two were both first round subs and past that, he's not usually someone who usually puts a stamp on his fights which is why he went to a split with some mediocre guys like the chinese dude he fought and Brandon Davis.

I also think the Santos fight was an outlier for John since he went really hard for a finish, maybe he'll do that again, maybe not. For me, it's just a style thing, I think John's pressure will be more than enough to overwhelm Kang and let him take control of the fight early.

I also give more importance to Castañeda's UFC fights because it's his most recent footage, can't put much stock on fights from 5 years ago and such, his win over Johns alone stands out for me as the best win either guy have notched in the past few years.

I don't particularly rate Danaa or Quiñonez, had Kang against both, maybe that's why I feel more confident on John here - could be a case of me getting ahead of myself and thinking I've got Kang aptly rated.

I think it's debatable rather Miles is better than Kang's resume. Kang fought more solid competition in the span of the last 4 years.

Kang is also the more season fighter that Casteneda's faced thus far. In terms of ufc quality. Johns hasn't fully hit his ceiling yet. i'm not trying to sell you Kang.

But nothing in Castenedas' record or footage suggest a strong lean here for my personal preference. Kang can wrestle, and he can strike. These are two mma generalist about to go at it( with Kang leaning more towards a grappler, and John a striker.)
I dont see John holding down Kang. And in terms of striking, Kang fights clean, I give power edge to John but he's giving up 3 inches in height. And i do think he has his best rounds in 1-2, maybe he can preserve his gas tank, but he needs to win the first 2 rounds first. He could win 30-27 but I think reality is much closer to him winning a 29-28 or it going to split/majority decision.

 

[XociDe]

I love Pereira but gonna have to bet Jiri at these odds. I think his grappling will play a huge part in the later rounds if it goes there. Either guy could knock the other out at any time as well. Pereira's striking defence is a lil sus and Jiri is very unorthodox.

 

[mkess101]

People really like Pav over Aspinall? There's gonna be a pretty big variance level just due to Sergei's ultra aggressive style and power. Early KO always live with him.

I like Aspinall's speed, footwork, and overall skillset here though. Especially because he's got real HW power too. He won't have to fight perfect trying to outpoint Pavlovich. If Tom lands (and I think he has a better chance of landing first) he will hurt Sergei.