UFC Fight Night: Brandon vs Brandon, February 24

[DabanggData]

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UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, February 24, 2024 with 13 fights at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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[Guld]

I'm all over Yair defeating Ortega.
-163 ML seems like some great value IMO.

 

[mkess101]

I'm all over Yair defeating Ortega.
-163 ML seems like some great value IMO.

I favor Yair. I'd be at least a little concerned how easily Ortega closed distance and got the fight to the mat the first time. He ate some shots to do it, but his chin is insane so it's not like he can't replicate it. And on the mat...it's always dicey against him. Yair is capable but I'd still give Ortega the edge there. The shoulder dislocation was a fluke last time. If that doesn't happen, Ortega is working from top position and who knows?

 

[sonhow]

I'm all over Yair defeating Ortega.
-163 ML seems like some great value IMO.

As long as he recovered from that beating Volk gave him. It was a pretty devastating beating.
Also Ortega is so weird. The dude barely fights but is somehow always on verge of title contention.

 

[Guld]

As long as he recovered from that beating Volk gave him. It was a pretty devastating beating.
Also Ortega is so weird. The dude barely fights but is somehow always on verge of title contention.

Yeah, a beatdown is always something that might have a long term effect. Both Yair and Ortega have received some (both from Max and Volk lol)
I just did a rewatch of their (Yair/Ortega) first brief encounter. The striking was close, but you could tell Yair was a notch above. Ortega tried to eat up some stall time against the cage, but with modern scoring that shouldn't count for anything. Before the final clinch Yair was really finding that chin with regularity with both hands, and his front kicks. I think Ortega was on borrowed time. Even after they did take it to the ground, the reason the shoulder became dislocated was because Yair was going for an armbar. So it's reassuring to know that he'll be throwing up potentially lethal subs while he's down there.
The other thing, as you mentioned, is that Ortega is ranked WAY too highly given his inactivity. Last win was 3+ years ago against Korean Zombie. Before that, a brutal beatdown by Max. After that, a beatdown by Volk and a defeat to Yair. That' it since Dec 2018 lol.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Current odds of fighters I like based off of fightodds.io not my casino

Rodriguez-105 vs. bondar I think he wins by dec

Aguilar+120 vs mednoca he wins by dec

Quninoez+145 vs..barcelos he wins by dec

Torres-120 vs duncan he wins by ko rd1

Rodriguez-182 vs Ortega he wins by dec


I think this event will be very Dec heavy

 

[PuertoRican]

I favor Yair. I'd be at least a little concerned how easily Ortega closed distance and got the fight to the mat the first time. He ate some shots to do it, but his chin is insane so it's not like he can't replicate it. And on the mat...it's always dicey against him. Yair is capable but I'd still give Ortega the edge there. The shoulder dislocation was a fluke last time. If that doesn't happen, Ortega is working from top position and who knows?

Yair will win on the feet with his better technical striking and superior foot movement.

Ortega might get TDs, but he isn't deadly on top with GnP, he'll waste time moving around and trying to find a sub while Yair will retain guard and wait for the round to end.

I think the foot movement and eventual TDs with not much done on top will drag this fight out and Yair will win a decision on damage done. The best strategy for Ortega would be to spam strikes on the feet and try to do some damage, and then get the TD, but Ortega has never been the best with fight IQ, imo.

In regard to the entire card as a whole, don't forget that this event is in Mexico City, which has the highest elevation out of any city that the UFC goes to. We saw some people get tired during the last event in Mexico City, and then there was the first event in Mexico when "Cardio" Cain Velasquez left California a few days before the fight and gassed out and got finished against Werdum. Lastly, SLC Utah has lower elevation than Mexico City, and we still saw people gas out when the UFC went there in late 2022 (they'll return SLC later this year).

 

[magpie878]

Am I remembering correctly? Was Yair Ortega 1 the fight where some argued that Ortega actually tapped early on?

 

[Georges Hefner]

Turcious might be a good underdog.

 

[mkess101]

Am I remembering correctly? Was Yair Ortega 1 the fight where some argued that Ortega actually tapped early on?

Yair said he felt him tap. There's not really any visual evidence of it. I don't think Yair liked people calling the win a "fluke" with how the fight ended, etc. IDK if he's "lying"...but I don't think anyone else was claiming Ortega tapped. At least that I remember.

 

[Stat_Collector]

It's going to be hard to bet against mexican fighters in their homeland, these people are very prideful.

i feel like parlaying nearly all the mexican fighters, except Torres , Luiz, Yair ,Victor, as i think they have the most to overcome.

Chris is a better grappler than Torres, and he's been submitted by some regional cans before,
Luiz seems good but unproven, had a split win not too long ago, And Bondar seems decent and faster+wrestling is sharper.
Yair should win, but never count out Ortega to pull a guillotine out of his ass.
Victor is very timid and bobs his head all over the place, just waiting to get flying kneed in the face.

 

[lefontes]

Great dogs, Ortega, Quinones, Duncan

 

[Wood530]

I need Moreno to get the dub to hit this 4 piece from last card. It would have been a 5 piece but the wrong Tafa lost.

 

[Jinx_AA]

It's going to be hard to bet against mexican fighters in their homeland, these people are very prideful.

i feel like parlaying nearly all the mexican fighters, except Torres , Luiz, Yair ,Victor, as i think they have the most to overcome.

Chris is a better grappler than Torres, and he's been submitted by some regional cans before,
Luiz seems good but unproven, had a split win not too long ago, And Bondar seems decent and faster+wrestling is sharper.
Yair should win, but never count out Ortega to pull a guillotine out of his ass.
Victor is very timid and bobs his head all over the place, just waiting to get flying kneed in the face.

Torres 2 submission losses were both leg locks …. Highly unlikely to happen here ….. he’s never been outstruck - I think he cracks Chris personally …a d Chris has been dropped more recently than Torres submitted …

Moreno and naimov both seem very safe and parlayable

And Lacerda always finds a way to lose and is only live in the first …. Chance of him finishing Chairez seems highly unlikely

I stabbed those spots today in tiny bets - just wanted to get something in before lines move …. I’ll place some bigger bets closer to the event after doing more diligence

 

[guesswhoseback]

Turcious might be a good underdog.

I was thinking the same thing then I watched his fight vs Kevin natvidad that fucking bum took him down like 9 times. Lol I'm not a live better but this could possibly be a good live bet scenario rosas gasses badly and it's in Mexico city high elevation so if turicios doesn't get completely dominated Rd 1 maybe a live bet on Ricky is good

 

[Stat_Collector]

Torres 2 submission losses were both leg locks …. Highly unlikely to happen here ….. he’s never been outstruck - I think he cracks Chris personally …a d Chris has been dropped more recently than Torres submitted …

Moreno and naimov both seem very safe and parlayable

And Lacerda always finds a way to lose and is only live in the first …. Chance of him finishing Chairez seems highly unlikely

I stabbed those spots today in tiny bets - just wanted to get something in before lines move …. I’ll place some bigger bets closer to the event after doing more diligence




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if he's getting leg locked so easily, signs of a weak grappling game. He hasn't fought many grapplers, and he's had the lesser difficult competition. It's context Chris is fighting Cambell and Bors, Ashmouz. He's fought far better competition in his last couple of fights.

I'm not going to place much value on kos on chins as weak as Motta and Camacho.

 

[mckinnley]

moreno and yair 2 leg parlay

 

[mkess101]

Torres 2 submission losses were both leg locks …. Highly unlikely to happen here ….. he’s never been outstruck - I think he cracks Chris personally …a d Chris has been dropped more recently than Torres submitted …

Moreno and naimov both seem very safe and parlayable

And Lacerda always finds a way to lose and is only live in the first …. Chance of him finishing Chairez seems highly unlikely

I stabbed those spots today in tiny bets - just wanted to get something in before lines move …. I’ll place some bigger bets closer to the event after doing more diligence




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Maan...Chairez should win but -350 against a dude who hurts almost everyone he's faced in rd 1 (before wilting of course) is butt clenching stuff.

Especially since absolutely nobody would've argued had the Vergera fight been stopped in rd 1, we've seen a ton of fights with guys hurt way less than CJ was get stopped. If that result says "Da Sliva KO 1"...line wouldn't be nearly this wide (and wouldn't have the first time either).

I mean yeah I think Chairez wins but no way I'm paying -350 vs a dude who's shown he can hurt anyone in rd 1.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Maan...Chairez should win but -350 against a dude who hurts almost everyone he's faced in rd 1 (before wilting of course) is butt clenching stuff.

Especially since absolutely nobody would've argued had the Vergera fight been stopped in rd 1, we've seen a ton of fights with guys hurt way less than CJ was get stopped. If that result says "Da Sliva KO 1"...line wouldn't be nearly this wide (and wouldn't have the first time either).

I mean yeah I think Chairez wins but no way I'm paying -350 vs a dude who's shown he can hurt anyone in rd 1.

Agree, not even close to what I would consider paying for Chairez. Torres is one of those guys that most likely losses to everyone, but can beat anyone. He is skilled and explosive for 2 minutes.

 

[mkess101]

Agree, not even close to what I would consider paying for Chairez. Torres is one of those guys that most likely losses to everyone, but can beat anyone. He is skilled and explosive for 2 minutes.

You mean Lacerda not Torres, but yeah exactly.