UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2, Miami, Florida, March 9

[Georges Hefner]

I think this line on Blaydes is gift. He will have 30 pounds on Almeida in there. Feels like not enough people are talking about the difference in physicality between him and Almeida. This is a true heavyweight vs a light heavyweight fight. Not only that, Blaydes is far more proven striker than Almeida and these wrestler vs wrestler matchups tend to play out on the feet.

Youre so confident? How much you betting ? People were confident last week on Gaziev

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'd favor Zaleski over any of Gaethje, Poirier, Chandler, or Holloway lol. Not sure why you hold that against Benoit, it was his debut fight up a weight class(15 lbs) against a skilled and dangerous opponent. If anything it showed what a dog he is, he's somebody that you will have to literally kill in there to take him out. His striking has improved immensely since then as well.

i had a change a heart, maybe your right, i’m leaning on him for grappling edge

 

[mkess101]

I think this line on Blaydes is gift. He will have 30 pounds on Almeida in there. Feels like not enough people are talking about the difference in physicality between him and Almeida. This is a true heavyweight vs a light heavyweight fight. Not only that, Blaydes is far more proven striker than Almeida and these wrestler vs wrestler matchups tend to play out on the feet.

Almeida just ragdolled a massive HW for 5 rounds though. And yes, Lewis isn't a grappler and Blaydes is a wrestler but Lewis has shown to be maybe the physically strongest guy on the roster over his career. Just straight bench pressing HW's off him--little technique but unreal strength.

Fight just has too many unknowns for me. Blaydes on the surface *seems* like a bad stylistic matchup for Almeida but we really haven't seen much of Blaydes defensive MMA wrestling. We know he's good by HW standards with his offensive wrestling but we have yet to see him have to defend vs someone like Almeida who will push his own offensive grappling nonstop.
On the flipside, we've obviously never seen Almeida have to deal with someone that has the wrestling pedigree of Blaydes.

Makes the fight too tough to predict imo, and odds reflect that.

 

[sonhow]

For some reason I see something weird happening in Almeida-Curtis. Like Almeida via spinning ko or a huge robbery. Or maybe injury.

The most straightforward would be that the much bigger Curtis stuffs takedowns and boxes him up. But why does it seem too easy

 

[Stat_Collector]

Youre so confident? How much you betting ? People were confident last week on Gaziev

not everyone .. i was arguing against him and even said autofade. he was unproven and got dropped previously, i hinted at a small sprinkle prop bet but end up passing the fight. there are far more reasons to fade a lhw who has had questionable performances in the pass.

Getting out grappled in r1 against a grappler in his dwcs fight,

Losing a bjj match to Pessoa who cant be any better than curtis

Being flipped on his back and having lewis get on top of him when he was gassing in the 3rd .

Getting koed in 2017 by a low level can when Curtis was actively fighting hw in the ufc.

The trajectory of Almeida’s career is not adding up to me.

I have a hard time believing he’s getting through a real ufc heavyweight despite showing he can be out grappled, We assume that curtis will be the one defending when he is capable of getting his own ctrl on Almeida.

Blaydes also has a bjjblue belt which means he’s spent plenty of times in the gi and learning bottom defense.

Even if you’re spectacle, see his fights in 2016, he wasn’t a turtle off his back.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Almeida just ragdolled a massive HW for 5 rounds though. And yes, Lewis isn't a grappler and Blaydes is a wrestler but Lewis has shown to be maybe the physically strongest guy on the roster over his career. Just straight bench pressing HW's off him--little technique but unreal strength.

Fight just has too many unknowns for me. Blaydes on the surface *seems* like a bad stylistic matchup for Almeida but we really haven't seen much of Blaydes defensive MMA wrestling. We know he's good by HW standards with his offensive wrestling but we have yet to see him have to defend vs someone like Almeida who will push his own offensive grappling nonstop.
On the flipside, we've obviously never seen Almeida have to deal with someone that has the wrestling pedigree of Blaydes.

Makes the fight too tough to predict imo, and odds reflect that.

we have footage in 2016 of curtis popping back up to his feet.

And we have seen almeida against grapplers, he didn’t look that good in neither.

 

[mkess101]

Man another thing I guess I didn't realize is that Blaydes has a total of 8 minutes of cage time in the last 2.5 years. KO'd blown up LHW Daukus late 2021 early rd 2, then the 15 second fight where Aspinall blew his knee out right away in 2022, and the quick KO loss to Pavlovich last year. That is...not much activity at all. Almeida has 6 fights in thag time frame. A lot of them first rd finishes over meh competition, but still went 5 rounds recently with Lewis and while he absolutely got tired, he had enough to still get TD's and control the whole way.

That's a BIG difference in activity level and that's something I do put some stock in. Not saying it's the most important thing, but nobody will convince me it doesn't matter.

 

[mkess101]

we have footage in 2016 of curtis popping back up to his feet.

And we have seen almeida against grapplers, he didn’t look that good in neither.

2016 is a long time ago. The ability to get up like that is almost always a combination of technique and athleticism. I'd imagine the latter has fallen off at least a little. Though he may have improved technique to make up for it. We just don't have much to go on lately because Curtis hasn't had much recent cage time at all.

I'd also say Almeida has likely improved since we last saw him vs anyone we'd consider a grappler.

 

[Stat_Collector]

2016 is a long time ago. The ability to get up like that is almost always a combination of technique and athleticism. I'd imagine the latter has fallen off at least a little. Though he may have improved technique to make up for it. We just don't have much to go on lately because Curtis hasn't had much recent cage time at all.

I'd also say Almeida has likely improved since we last saw him vs anyone we'd consider a grappler.

does cage time matter as much as having training camps?

He still sparring in training and getting hit, so his chin stays resilient and his reflexes stay sharp. he still rolling with grapplers to get better, that is different than not fighting at all

 

[mkess101]

does cage time matter as much as having training camps?

He still sparring in training and getting hit, so his chin stays resilient and his reflexes stay sharp. he still rolling with grapplers to get better, that is different than not fighting at all

Training camps matter too, but he's only even had 3 of those in the past 2.5 years. That's not a whole lot of activity. Obviously he's rolling, Training, etc outside camp but the actual intensity of getting ready for a fight absolutely matters.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Losing a bjj match to Pessoa who cant be any better than curtis

You don't think Pessoa, who has 19 career wins by SUB, has better BJJ than Blaydes?

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[Stat_Collector]

You don't think Pessoa, who has 19 career wins by SUB, has better BJJ than Blaydes?

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whatss your point? he out wrestled Almeida and took him down .

Blaydes has better clinch and takedowns/scramble ability.

i never stated Curtis was going to tap almeida

bjj and subs doesn’t account for overall grappling ability

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

not everyone .. i was arguing against him and even said autofade. he was unproven and got dropped previously, i hinted at a small sprinkle prop bet but end up passing the fight. there are far more reasons to fade a lhw who has had questionable performances in the pass.

Getting out grappled in r1 against a grappler in his dwcs fight,

Losing a bjj match to Pessoa who cant be any better than curtis

Being flipped on his back and having lewis get on top of him when he was gassing in the 3rd .

Getting koed in 2017 by a low level can when Curtis was actively fighting hw in the ufc.

The trajectory of Almeida’s career is not adding up to me.

I have a hard time believing he’s getting through a real ufc heavyweight despite showing he can be out grappled, We assume that curtis will be the one defending when he is capable of getting his own ctrl on Almeida.

Blaydes also has a bjjblue belt which means he’s spent plenty of times in the gi and learning bottom defense.

Even if you’re spectacle, see his fights in 2016, he wasn’t a turtle off his back.

When are you going to acknowledge the fact that Blaydes has a 33% TDD rate (absolutely terrible), and as the other poster said, has racked up an hour and a half of control time in the UFC, and not attempted a single submission (suggests non-existant BJJ).

You are using every vague bit of reasoning to discount Almeida, but ignoring the much more solid facts relating to Blaydes.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Song Yadong to win.

Petr Yan fighting style is a double deck with read & download info's... Slow starter and his holes are too exploiting for Yadong. Straight & Underneath punches, quick combos, over the parry counters...

Kevin Holland to win.

MVP has a rather small repertoire of techniques, he is still fighting against a fighter who is of similar constituion and punch quite precisely hard, but we know MVP wants to stay in a safe zone. He won't be able to afford that in this fight.

 

[Guld]

For some reason I see something weird happening in Almeida-Curtis. Like Almeida via spinning ko or a huge robbery. Or maybe injury.

The most straightforward would be that the much bigger Curtis stuffs takedowns and boxes him up. But why does it seem too easy

Blaydes weakness has been getting cracked by heavy strikes. So him getting tagged by something silly/random and getting flatlined wouldn't surprise me one bit.

 

[Joonc]

Almeida just ragdolled a massive HW for 5 rounds though. And yes, Lewis isn't a grappler and Blaydes is a wrestler but Lewis has shown to be maybe the physically strongest guy on the roster over his career. Just straight bench pressing HW's off him--little technique but unreal strength.

Fight just has too many unknowns for me. Blaydes on the surface *seems* like a bad stylistic matchup for Almeida but we really haven't seen much of Blaydes defensive MMA wrestling. We know he's good by HW standards with his offensive wrestling but we have yet to see him have to defend vs someone like Almeida who will push his own offensive grappling nonstop.
On the flipside, we've obviously never seen Almeida have to deal with someone that has the wrestling pedigree of Blaydes.

Makes the fight too tough to predict imo, and odds reflect that.

With the odds at evens and the immense size advantage Blaydes has I'll take Blaydes all day. The size will play into both the wrestling and the striking, and I don't think I give Almeida much of an edge at all technically to compensate for it, I'm confident Blaydes is a better striker than he is. I think Almeida will have to be a Jon Jones generational talent to overcome the size and skill of Blaydes, I will happily bet that he isn't.

 

[Joonc]

Blaydes weakness has been getting cracked by heavy strikes. So him getting tagged by something silly/random and getting flatlined wouldn't surprise me one bit.

Funny enough I think Blaydes actually has a good chin, but he seems to have a problem with exceptional power hitters. Highly, highly doubt that Almeida is that.

 

[Stat_Collector]

tdd

When are you going to acknowledge the fact that Blaydes has a 33% TDD rate (absolutely terrible), and as the other poster said, has racked up an hour and a half of control time in the UFC, and not attempted a single submission (suggests non-existant BJJ).

You are using every vague bit of reasoning to discount Almeida, but ignoring the much more solid facts relating to Blaydes.

tdd is misleading, 33% based off one fight 8 years ago and 1 takedown by Alex in which Blaydes got up quickly is not significant.

People get hung up on tdd as suppose to ctrl. Curtis has been very actively training, and if we are talking about overall career, Blaydes has more cage time against season pros and both of them are about the same age .

Training camps matter too, but he's only even had 3 of those in the past 2.5 years. That's not a whole lot of activity. Obviously he's rolling, Training, etc outside camp but the actual intensity of getting ready for a fight absolutely matters.

I was impressed with his ability to bang with tom on the feet and hold is own even for that short span, his hands are fast and his ability to quickly check toms kick led to him snapping his knee. a legit win imo

 

[mkess101]

tdd

tdd is misleading, 33% based off one fight 8 years ago and 1 takedown by Alex in which Blaydes got up quickly is not significant.

People get hung up on tdd as suppose to ctrl. Curtis has been very actively training, and if we are talking about overall career, Blaydes has more cage time against season pros and both of them are about the same age .






I was impressed with his ability to bang with tom on the feet and hold is own even for that short span, his hands are fast and his ability to quickly check toms kick led to him snapping his knee. a legit win imo

I mean, the fight with Tom was 15 seconds LOL. I agree, Blaydes hands looked fast the one combo he let go. But it really had nothing to do with checking the leg kick imo that blew Tom's knee. He was just stepping back to reset and his knee gave out. I cant call that a legit win at all. (It's legit in that it wasn't a robbery or anything, but it was for sure just a fluke injury that had almost nothing to do with either fighter's skills).

 

[Stat_Collector]

I mean, the fight with Tom was 15 seconds LOL. I agree, Blaydes hands looked fast the one combo he let go. But it really had nothing to do with checking the leg kick imo that blew Tom's knee. He was just stepping back to reset and his knee gave out. I cant call that a legit win at all. (It's legit in that it wasn't a robbery or anything, but it was for sure just a fluke injury that had almost nothing to do with either fighter's skills).

there was a slight check that he did that sounded really hard on the bone.

than coincidentally he blows out his knee?

nah, more like the check did it.

the angle i admit is not adequate to make that assumption