UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2, Miami, Florida, March 9

[Guld]

These odds keep swelling.
I don't think I can pass up Munhoz at +175

 

[mkess101]

there was a slight check that he did that sounded really hard on the bone.

than coincidentally he blows out his knee?

nah, more like the check did it.

You should rewatch. I just did again (since it's so short LOL). Blaydes does sort of check one, but it's right away. Tom lands 2 more hard kicks to Blaydes thigh that aren't checked at all AFTER that first one and Tom is bouncing around moving fine but it's when he goes to reset after actually landing one that his leg buckles.

And the checked one even was Tom's foot/ankle that make contact. It really wouldn't have anything to do with when his knee gave out a few exchanges later.

Having blown out a knee (ACL, MCL, meniscus) and having seen others do it in a variety of ways, it's way more often a non-contact injury where just the torque of planting on it wrong tears the ligament(s).

 

[Guld]

Speaking of blown out/damaged legs, I think MVP vs Holland should be the top contender for a shin break on this card haha.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You should rewatch. I just did again (since it's so short LOL). Blaydes does sort of check one, but it's right away. Tom lands 2 more hard kicks to Blaydes thigh that aren't checked at all AFTER that first one and Tom is bouncing around moving fine but it's when he goes to reset after actually landing one that his leg buckles.

And the checked one even was Tom's foot/ankle that make contact. It really wouldn't have anything to do with when his knee gave out a few exchanges later.

Having blown out a knee (ACL, MCL, meniscus) and having seen others do it in a variety of ways, it's way more often a non-contact injury where just the torque of planting on it wrong tears the ligament(s).

there was a kick that looked like he checked around 4:50 mark where he pivoted back his leg. but i watched in slow motion and determined your right.

The speed in his strikes and reflexes still looks sharp tho, his 1-2 is matched with toms’ hand speed.

Looking at two guys who started careers in 2012 and are near the same age, Blaydes adapted to tougher competition in his rightful weightclass earlier , conventional wisdom says blaydes should win

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

tdd

tdd is misleading, 33% based off one fight 8 years ago and 1 takedown by Alex in which Blaydes got up quickly is not significant.

People get hung up on tdd as suppose to ctrl. Curtis has been very actively training, and if we are talking about overall career, Blaydes has more cage time against season pros and both of them are about the same age .






I was impressed with his ability to bang with tom on the feet and hold is own even for that short span, his hands are fast and his ability to quickly check toms kick led to him snapping his knee. a legit win imo

With all due to respect my man, this is even more vague inferences.

You surely aren't a sharp, whilst simultaneously being one of the 'Blaydes was beating Aspinall' truthers.

That fight went for 15 seconds; we have seen what happens to Blaydes against anyone who can strike that he can't get down: he is shown to be second-rate (striking wise) once a reasonable sample size of time presents itself in the fight.

He would have likely got KOed within the first 3 minutes if Aspinall didn't blow his knee out.

You could list 1000s of fights where one fighter landed the solitary blow of the fight over the course of the first 15 seconds, only to end up being on the receiving end of annihilation.

It's totally meaningless.

 

[mkess101]

there was a kick that looked like he checked around 4:50 mark where he pivoted back his leg. but i watched in slow motion and determined your right.

The speed in his strikes and reflexes still looks sharp tho, his 1-2 is matched with toms’ hand speed.

Looking at two guys who started careers in 2012 and are near the same age, Blaydes adapted to tougher competition in his rightful weightclass earlier , conventional wisdom says blaydes should win

Yeah I can't argue much with those who like Blaydes based on the matchup. Maybe I'm putting more stock in recent activity, etc. It's just too many unknowns for me based on that. Good luck, I'm passing.

 

[Stat_Collector]

With all due to respect my man, this is even more vague inferences.

You surely aren't a sharp, whilst simultaneously being one of the 'Blaydes was beating Aspinall' truthers.

That fight went for 15 seconds; we have seen what happens to Blaydes against anyone who can strike that he can't get down: he is shown to be second-rate (striking wise) once a reasonable sample size of time presents itself in the fight.

He would have likely got KOed within the first 3 minutes if Aspinall didn't blow his knee out.

You could list 1000s of fights where one fighter landed the solitary blow of the fight over the course of the first 15 seconds, only to end up being on the receiving end of annihilation.

It's totally meaningless.

i acknowledge the check kick was off.

thanks for ignoring the reply i made about stats and trying to nit pick a post that wasn’t even directed at you.

still not the point, swap places with almeida, he doesn’t even get into any exchanges, he gets dropped fast and finished.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah I can't argue much with those who like Blaydes based on the matchup. Maybe I'm putting more stock in recent activity, etc. It's just too many unknowns for me based on that. Good luck, I'm passing.

i got blaydes at -105 im happy camper, its clear as day the more you look into it that this fight will setup Blaydes Tom 2

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

tdd is misleading, 33% based off one fight 8 years ago and 1 takedown by Alex in which Blaydes got up quickly is not significant.

People get hung up on tdd as suppose to ctrl. Curtis has been very actively training, and if we are talking about overall career, Blaydes has more cage time against season pros and both of them are about the same age .

who did Almeida hold down?

Not all stats hold the same value.

Whenever a stat does not jive with whatever narrative is stuck in your head it suddenly becomes irrelevant.

You are not arguing in good faith I wont waste my time anymore.

 

[StewDogg11]

Bets locked in, people much all the movement went the opposite way lol:

Moroz
Cutelaba
Munhoz
Dos Anjos
Cerminara
Blaydes
Yan
Burns
Poirier
Vera

 

[Stat_Collector]

Whenever a stat does not jive with whatever narrative is stuck in your head it suddenly becomes irrelevant.

You are not arguing in good faith I wont waste my time anymore.

how do these two statements contradict each other?

ctrl time on high quality opponents(solid grapplers) matter more than on guys who are not grapplers ai Lewis/Rozen and 40 old Shamill.

and the stats of 33% based on tdd not ctrl time are from 2016 mostly on one fight, do people not get better in 8 years?

By that game, why is it that you overlook Almeida getting chinned by a no name fighter?

My point of contention is that tdd is not relevant if the guy who got taken down got back up. Judges scoring is not based on takedowns, its based more on ctrl and damage from the ground.

If the striking gap is wide as it is for Blaydes/Almeida, the scoring will favor Blaydes to out point him, why because Almeida's only proven he can out grapple non grapplers, the guy he fought in the dwcs scored reversals and control, even Lewis who is a non grappler got a top position on Almeida. These are all negative stats. Same goes for his grappling match with Pessoa, who out scrambled him and passed his guard.

Almeida isn't a khabib or jon jones, the fact he's 32 and now entered the ufc should hint that he isn't a prodigy or some next big thing no one knows about, he's another fighter on the roster with glaring weaknesses.

 

[burge13]

People overthinking this weekend. A lot of tough matchups to bet BUT we have AJ at 1.33 to beat Ngannou. Bankroll job

For reference, career boxers like Povetkin, Takam, Parker were longer odds to beat AJ than Ngannou is. Utter madness. 33% interest

 

[Guld]

People overthinking this weekend. A lot of tough matchups to bet BUT we have AJ at 1.33 to beat Ngannou. Bankroll job

For reference, career boxers like Povetkin, Takam, Parker were longer odds to beat AJ than Ngannou is. Utter madness. 33% interest

I agree with that.
I like the distance bets too.
Over 6.5rds is -138
To Go the Distance is +250
They wanna keep Francis around for other big paydays so I have a feeling AJ will carry him to the finish just like Fury did. (Francis is also a tough guy to KO as well) so those distance bets are pretty good IMO.

 

[PuertoRican]

135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley (135) vs. Marlon Vera (135)
135 lbs.: Merab Dvalishvili (135) — main event backup fighter
155 lbs.: Dustin Poirier (156) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (155)
170 lbs.: Kevin Holland (170) vs. Michael Page (170)
170 lbs.: Gilbert Burns (171) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (170)
135 lbs.: Petr Yan (135) vs. Yadong Song (136)
265 lbs.: Curtis Blaydes (257) vs. Jailton Almeida (241)
125 lbs.: Katlyn Cerminara (125) vs. Maycee Barber (125)
155 lbs.: Mateusz Gamrot (156) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (156)
135 lbs.: Pedro Munhoz (135) vs. Kyler Phillips (135)
205 lbs.: Ion Cutelaba (205) vs. Philipe Lins (206)
185 lbs.: Michel Pereira (186) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (185)
265 lbs.: Robelis Despaigne (261) vs. Josh Parisian (266)
125 lbs.: C.J. Vergara (127*) vs. Asu Almabaev (126)
125 lbs.: Joanne Wood (125) vs. Maryna Moroz (126)

* CJ Vergara missed weight.

 

[Psychojoe86]

What do ppl think of Chito? Rumor of a bad camp, plus visual evidence that he struggled with the weight cut.

I'm suspicious that it's a bit fake to impact the betting line, but still.

 

[Kwiatkowski18]

What do ppl think of Chito? Rumor of a bad camp, plus visual evidence that he struggled with the weight cut.

I'm suspicious that it's a bit fake to impact the betting line, but still.

No doubt he looked like an aids victim on the scales. But I'm not touching this one.

 

[Psychojoe86]

No doubt he looked like an aids victim on the scales. But I'm not touching this one.

If anything, the value might be on a finish in this fight. I mean, it would be a gamble, but a 4th or 5th round finish probably pays well and could occur. Especially if Chito shows up strong in the later rounds.

 

[Guld]

Just looking at the weigh in photos here:

Photos: UFC 299 ceremonial weigh-ins and faceoffs

Check out these photos from the UFC 299 ceremonial weigh-ins at Kaseya Center in Miami.

mmajunkie.usatoday.com

RDA looking impressive. I don't have a bet on that one, but I kinda hope he can replicate what Dariush did to Gamrot.

 

[Tebowned]

What do ppl think of Chito? Rumor of a bad camp, plus visual evidence that he struggled with the weight cut.

I'm suspicious that it's a bit fake to impact the betting line, but still.

I like Sean Dec/ points

 

[ExitLUPin]

Just looking at the weigh in photos here:

Photos: UFC 299 ceremonial weigh-ins and faceoffs

Check out these photos from the UFC 299 ceremonial weigh-ins at Kaseya Center in Miami.

mmajunkie.usatoday.com

RDA looking impressive. I don't have a bet on that one, but I kinda hope he can replicate what Dariush did to Gamrot.
View attachment 1033614

I am on RDA. I was waiting till he was on the scales. This line is absurd. Gamrot could easily be 1-3 in his last 4 with different judges and then his lone win wouldve been an injury where he lost the 1st round.

If this was 5 rounds Id understand the line a bit. But 3 rounds? When does Gamrot ever cover close to -400? I rewatched Ferreira fight and it was a lot more competitive than I remembered.

Gamrot doesnt handle southpaws well standing IMO. RDA is much better standing and Gamrot he is not a control guy. HE is not kimuraing RDA. I understand the age for RDA but a couple years ago I wouldve hammered this bad. Ill take my chances with age here. And Gamrot doesnt have a big size advantage like almost everyone who outgrappled RDA has had. Luque got outstruck and rocked a couple times. Was a close 48-47 but he abused a big size advantage to eek out a decision that Gamrot won't have.

RDA gets taken down some, reverses or gets up, builds off that southpaw jab, scores big with leg and body kicks. Dont think RDA going for his own TDs is out of the question either if anyone has prolonged control time its RDA IMO.