UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2, Miami, Florida, March 9

[Oblivian]

I'm on a fair amount of dogs for this one. RDA is not one of them. To me, this screams like a bad matchup for him. He seems to struggle with fighters who make him defend takedowns while guessing if they are going to strike or not. It almost paralyzes him and I think we'll see that here.

 

[mkess101]

I'm on a fair amount of dogs for this one. RDA is not one of them. To me, this screams like a bad matchup for him. He seems to struggle with fighters who make him defend takedowns while guessing if they are going to strike or not. It almost paralyzes him and I think we'll see that here.

To be fair, that was never an issue for him at LW, only when he moved up and had to face guys naturally bigger than he is. This is back at 155, and USADA is gone. And...he looks absolutely shredded at his age. Not saying...just saying.

I don't think he was ever outgrappled at LW. I do think Gamrot is gonna get some TD's but I think he'll struggle to keep RDA down for long. I do still favor Gamrot. Age and mileage matter, and Gamrot is a guy with the gas tank to just keep spamming TD's when his opponents get up. But the odds are too wide. If RDA is able to get top position, he's phenomenal with it. He's the better striker. It's dog or pass at these odds for sure.

 

[Oblivian]

To be fair, that was never an issue for him at LW, only when he moved up and had to face guys naturally bigger than he is. This is back at 155, and USADA is gone. And...he looks absolutely shredded at his age. Not saying...just saying.

I don't think he was ever outgrappled at LW. I do think Gamrot is gonna get some TD's but I think he'll struggle to keep RDA down for long. I do still favor Gamrot. Age and mileage matter, and Gamrot is a guy with the gas tank to just keep spamming TD's when his opponents get up. But the odds are too wide. If RDA is able to get top position, he's phenomenal with it. He's the better striker. It's dog or pass at these odds for sure.

I just have a hard time seeing RDA have enough offense to really win rounds.

 

[mkess101]

I just have a hard time seeing RDA have enough offense to really win rounds.

That's fair, but it does seem like some judges now are REALLY putting damage ahead of everything. Like, fights where a guy hits 2 TD's in a round and has 3 minutes of control but just slightly gets the worst of the striking and loses the round. Where as in the past it was pretty much guaranteed he'd win that round. So RDA **might** not have to do as much as he would've in the past to win rounds if Gamrot is doing absolutely no damage.

 

[Dooze]

Lord save me I'm considering betting on Josh Parisian. That Cuban he's fighting could be amazing given his last 3 fights have lasted a total of 19 seconds but then you look at their records and see that of his 4 opponents none of them had fought prior or since professionally other than his last one who had one other fight..like you can't even call them cans or bums because that would imply they were fighters.

Parisian is obviously a terrible fighter himself while realistically shouldn't be in the UFC but assuming he's not sparked out in the first minute who knows what happens.

Like maybe the Cuban has solid takedown defence, a ground game, a gas tank but at nearly +300 I'm half tempted to pay to find out rather than just avoid betting on the fight entirely as is probably the sensible approach.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Lord save me I'm considering betting on Josh Parisian. That Cuban he's fighting could be amazing given his last 3 fights have lasted a total of 19 seconds but then you look at their records and see that of his 4 opponents none of them had fought prior or since professionally other than his last one who had one other fight..like you can't even call them cans or bums because that would imply they were fighters.

Parisian is obviously a terrible fighter himself while realistically shouldn't be in the UFC but assuming he's not sparked out in the first minute who knows what happens.

Like maybe the Cuban has solid takedown defence, a ground game, a gas tank but at nearly +300 I'm half tempted to pay to find out rather than just avoid betting on the fight entirely as is probably the sensible approach.

he's fat. -Scott Steiner

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Lord save me I'm considering betting on Josh Parisian. That Cuban he's fighting could be amazing given his last 3 fights have lasted a total of 19 seconds but then you look at their records and see that of his 4 opponents none of them had fought prior or since professionally other than his last one who had one other fight..like you can't even call them cans or bums because that would imply they were fighters.

Parisian is obviously a terrible fighter himself while realistically shouldn't be in the UFC but assuming he's not sparked out in the first minute who knows what happens.

Like maybe the Cuban has solid takedown defence, a ground game, a gas tank but at nearly +300 I'm half tempted to pay to find out rather than just avoid betting on the fight entirely as is probably the sensible approach.

I think the sole fight that went a bit longer (but still ended at the end of the first round) was because his opponent clinched him for periods against the fence and he wasn't able to do much about it until the ko. If his round 1 prop was around +100/-120, I guess you could roll the dice, but at @-165/-175 it's too steep considering Parisian could do something similar, but better.

 

[mkess101]

Lord save me I'm considering betting on Josh Parisian. That Cuban he's fighting could be amazing given his last 3 fights have lasted a total of 19 seconds but then you look at their records and see that of his 4 opponents none of them had fought prior or since professionally other than his last one who had one other fight..like you can't even call them cans or bums because that would imply they were fighters.

Parisian is obviously a terrible fighter himself while realistically shouldn't be in the UFC but assuming he's not sparked out in the first minute who knows what happens.

Like maybe the Cuban has solid takedown defence, a ground game, a gas tank but at nearly +300 I'm half tempted to pay to find out rather than just avoid betting on the fight entirely as is probably the sensible approach.

Just watched the highlights of Despaigne and some training stuff. Dude looks super athletic for a HW. Doing flying spinning kicks and shit that no HW's do. And looking smooth doing them. Fast hands, knocked the one dude out with absolutely zero windup. Keeps his hands low so he's absolutely there to be hit, although I really doubt Parisian is the guy to do it.

It's obviously pretty hard to get a read on a guy who's fights last 5 seconds LMAO but from what I saw there's gonna be a ridiculous speed difference. That said, you aren't wrong in that the dudes he's knocked out could straight up be guys just randomly pulled off barstools or whatever.

I'd probably just pass. I'm putting Despaigne on my main full slate DK team because he **should** take care of Josh easily. But paying massive juice on a debuting guy who has fought literal nobodies isn't happening. Just couldn't bet Josh either.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Im changing my pick from
Madalena def. Burns via TKO (punches) to
Burns def. Madalena via SUB (arm triangle)

 

[Georges Hefner]

This is NOT a good look

 

[Georges Hefner]

I want to add last thing - the UFC want Chito Vera to win the title in Miami , this guy is the next superstar

 

[manopino]

View attachment 1033752
This is NOT a good look

gonna tail you on this one

 

[Guld]

View attachment 1033752
This is NOT a good look

You think Jack just looks gaunt? or are you just surprised at how comparable they are size-wise?

 

[Dooze]

Rate Gamrot highly but think there's value in RDA decision @ +600.

RDA despite his age is still fairly high level. He still has the cardio for 5 rounds so this being 3 rounds he should be able to push the pace more. I think 9 times out of 10 this fight goes to a decision, both are difficult to put away whilst being decision heavy fighters win or lose. By no means do I expect RDA to come out and dominate the fight, but he's dropping back down to 155 so should have a bit more physicality about him for this rather than being small for the weight class, he looks in great shape (no USADA? ) and it will likely be a grinding grapple heavy affair.

I could be wrong and Gamrot dominates, but I could easily see this being a fight where neither guy ends up hurt and we get a lot of back and forth wrestling exchanges. Realistically at this point Gamrot SHOULD win, but I think at +600 for a decision it's possible we see RDA snag at least one round and make another somewhat close enough to potentially get a split decision.

I'd probably feel happier playing a +3.5 prop but I've never seen them on offer in the UK, or at least the bookies I bet with. As good as Gamrot is, it's rare to see RDA completely blown away and in a 3 round fight that will mainly be grapple heavy and back at 155 I think it's generous odds for him to keep it interesting. Also potentially worth noting is though they're both pressure fighters, is probably the better striker and Gamrot can be hurt even if difficult to put away. Given judges of late tend to reward damage, in a back and forth grappling match any success on the feet from RDA in hurting Gamrot could help get him the nod in rounds that are otherwise fairly close.

 

[Georges Hefner]

gonna tail you on this one

If you want to tail me, dont bet this. Bet on Jailton Almeida

 

[Georges Hefner]

You think Jack just looks gaunt? or are you just surprised at how comparable they are size-wise?

He looks nervous to pay his current price -160. I think I’m going to live bet Jack after round 1

 

[Don Sharpe]

Sean O’Malley (17-1) Vs Chito Vera (23-8-1)
Full disclosure I am a fan of both fighters. I cashed in previously on O’Malley beating Sterling and as well on Vera beating O’Malley in the first encounter.
I believe the odds are off here. Vera will certainly be a tougher test then Sterling and is also proven to be much more durable.
I believe Vera will focus on a kick heavy game plan and also look to score some takedowns in this fight.
O’Malley’s power should not be underestimated. He can definitely end the fight if he connects clean.
That said my prediction is for it to be a back and forth first couple rounds until Vera takes over, bring O’Malley down and locks up a rear naked choke. However I won’t get greedy with my pick and am just backing the money line.
Pick: Marlon Vera (+210)

Curtis Blaydes (17-4) Vs Jailton Almeida (20-2)
The odds makers have essentially set this as a pick am and while agree this fight could go a number of ways once it gets started I think we will see a clear winner take over or find a finish.
Many are counting Almeida out after his visually disappointing 5 round victory over Derrick Lewis last November. However it should be noted that the same Lewis was able to KO Blaydes in the second round back in 2021.
It is my opinion that Blaydes is past his prime and his bad knockout losses are starting to catch up to him.
I believe Almeida will look to take this to the mat very early and will be live to give Blaydes his first ever submission loss.
Pick: Jailton Almeida (-125)

Robelis Despaigne (4-0) Vs Josh Parisian (15-7)
There is way too much hype surrounding Robelis Despaigne when you look at the facts. He is 35 years old and never seen a second round before.
There is so many questions surrounding him yet everyone believes it is a foregone conclusion he will get another first round KO.
Josh Parisian has 6 UFC fights under him already and has shown to be semi durable in his tenure and the majority of his wins have come via finish.
If Josh Parisian can weather the storm in the first round I believe he will be very live to score the upset here.
By no means is this a confident pick but at these odds I’m more then willing to make a stab on the biggest underdog of the card.
Pick: Josh Parisian ML (+295)

 

[manopino]

Sean O’Malley (17-1) Vs Chito Vera (23-8-1)
Full disclosure I am a fan of both fighters. I cashed in previously on O’Malley beating Sterling and as well on Vera beating O’Malley in the first encounter.
I believe the odds are off here. Vera will certainly be a tougher test then Sterling and is also proven to be much more durable.
I believe Vera will focus on a kick heavy game plan and also look to score some takedowns in this fight.
O’Malley’s power should not be underestimated. He can definitely end the fight if he connects clean.
That said my prediction is for it to be a back and forth first couple rounds until Vera takes over, bring O’Malley down and locks up a rear naked choke. However I won’t get greedy with my pick and am just backing the money line.
Pick: Marlon Vera (+210)

Curtis Blaydes (17-4) Vs Jailton Almeida (20-2)
The odds makers have essentially set this as a pick am and while agree this fight could go a number of ways once it gets started I think we will see a clear winner take over or find a finish.
Many are counting Almeida out after his visually disappointing 5 round victory over Derrick Lewis last November. However it should be noted that the same Lewis was able to KO Blaydes in the second round back in 2021.
It is my opinion that Blaydes is past his prime and his bad knockout losses are starting to catch up to him.
I believe Almeida will look to take this to the mat very early and will be live to give Blaydes his first ever submission loss.
Pick: Jailton Almeida (-125)

Robelis Despaigne (4-0) Vs Josh Parisian (15-7)
There is way too much hype surrounding Robelis Despaigne when you look at the facts. He is 35 years old and never seen a second round before.
There is so many questions surrounding him yet everyone believes it is a foregone conclusion he will get another first round KO.
Josh Parisian has 6 UFC fights under him already and has shown to be semi durable in his tenure and the majority of his wins have come via finish.
If Josh Parisian can weather the storm in the first round I believe he will be very live to score the upset here.
By no means is this a confident pick but at these odds I’m more then willing to make a stab on the biggest underdog of the card.
Pick: Josh Parisian ML (+295)

damn Parisian is a joke, he's in the haeavy-weight division cause he doesnt wanna diet. It's just a joke from the ufc to make us and Dana laugh.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Nice, that’s exactly what I meant! One day he’ll finish someone with that, but I’m not sure if it’s against Saint Denis. He’d be better off keeping it standing, I think. Situational, of course…

You were right. I was wrong. Holy fuck Poirier loves to chase guillotines.

 

[Spath]

You were right. I was wrong. Holy fuck Poirier loves to chase guillotines.

I have to admit I was a bit surprised to see him do exactly that! Mike Brown told him again to stop with the guillotine spam and the first thing he did when BSD grabbed a hold of him was… a guillotine.



The post fight interview was fun, too. ”I’ll never stop [going for the guillotines]!”
Haha