UFC Fight Night: Brandon vs Brandon, February 24

[Psychojoe86]

Will the elevation result in more decisions? Or more finishes?

Personally I think the former, and not to mention no fights above the lightweight division competing either.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Maan...Chairez should win but -350 against a dude who hurts almost everyone he's faced in rd 1 (before wilting of course) is butt clenching stuff.

Especially since absolutely nobody would've argued had the Vergera fight been stopped in rd 1, we've seen a ton of fights with guys hurt way less than CJ was get stopped. If that result says "Da Sliva KO 1"...line wouldn't be nearly this wide (and wouldn't have the first time either).

I mean yeah I think Chairez wins but no way I'm paying -350 vs a dude who's shown he can hurt anyone in rd 1.

I agree the odds are too wide …. But …. Chairez has a Mexican chin 100 times what Vergeras chin is …. I’m not worried about Chairez getting KOd at all to be honest

But yeah the value is lacking

We’ll see how it plays out

 

[ExitLUPin]

Any thoughts on Prado +220?

I really dont rate Zellhuber much. A likely past prime Giagos who is about as ordinary as LWs get had him hurt and won round 1.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Any thoughts on Prado +220?

I really dont rate Zellhuber much. A likely past prime Giagos who is about as ordinary as LWs get had him hurt and won round 1.

Giagos came off a solid win on Ricky Glenn, he did a camp switch that made him much better. Prado has one solid win(Otto)

Zellhuber last couple of wins are solid but he's gained more experience against season pros. Prado has decent power, lets his hands go a lot, but is that enough to beat a patient fighter like Zellhuber?

I think to beat Zellhuber you have to be a more tactical fighter like Ogden. Given too it's in mexican soil, he's going to have the energy of the crowd. idk, maybe a punchers chance, I just don't see the upside other than Prado having a decent finish rate.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Why is the line movement going in the wrong direction for the Yair / Ortega fight?
Hardly seen anyone on the Ortega side but the odds on Yair is improving.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

Why is the line movement going in the wrong direction for the Yair / Ortega fight?
Hardly seen anyone on the Ortega side but the odds on Yair is improving.

I took a stab on Ortega. I dont love my bet since is the kind of bet that I'll look like a genius or like an idiot. But I think 5 rounds is a lot of time for him to snatch a sub.
I also think Ortega hands are better than people give him credit for.

 

[Koala]

Will the elevation result in more decisions? Or more finishes?

Personally I think the former, and not to mention no fights above the lightweight division competing either.

Yair trains in altitude in Mexico
Royval trains in Denver
Zellhuber is local

 

[guesswhoseback]

Why is the line movement going in the wrong direction for the Yair / Ortega fight?
Hardly seen anyone on the Ortega side but the odds on Yair is improving.

sherdog isnt the only place in the world where people post and talk about mma bets

 

[mkess101]

sherdog isnt the only place in the world where people post and talk about mma bets

Liar

 

[guesswhoseback]

Liar

Lol whats funny though i agree with him from all the podcasts and sherdog I haven't read or here anyone say that they like Ortega

 

[PuertoRican]

I remember when the Sherdog betting forum had more active people. We used to be able to sometimes move lines due to the amount of people and amount of money people were betting at the time.

Live betting on 5dimes and Bookmaker were great times.

 

[EndlessCritic]

raul rosas down to -210... seems playable.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I was thinking the same thing then I watched his fight vs Kevin natvidad that fucking bum took him down like 9 times. Lol I'm not a live better but this could possibly be a good live bet scenario rosas gasses badly and it's in Mexico city high elevation so if turicios doesn't get completely dominated Rd 1 maybe a live bet on Ricky is good

yeah Turcios gonna lose lol. I did research and I really like Raul Rosas at -210

 

[Jasper_RB81]

sherdog isnt the only place in the world where people post and talk about mma bets

Sherdog isn't the only place where i post and talk about bets either.

 

[mkess101]

Sherdog isn't the only place where i post and talk about bets either.

Traitor

 

[Jasper_RB81]

Is it money down to the drain to bet Erik Silva ML? Dude is +450 at the moment.
I watched the last three fights of Silva and the last two of Naimov.

The performance against TJ was really bad and that's ofcourse why the line is what it is. He gassed fast and lost the grappling and looked sloppy on the feet. The two fights before that he didn't face particularly strong opposition, but the takedowns looked solid and he is powerful. I don't know, but I think it's pretty hard to gauge how good he is. Could have been an off night, could have been dealing with something in the TJ fight.

Naimov lost to Mullarky pretty handily until the flash KO. In the fight against Wood it was pretty competitive and he did look good at times, but he could really bully Wood with his size. However, he also got dropped in R1 and if the fight had been 30 seconds longer he probably gets finished in the 3rd.

For me it's a clear dog or pass at this current price... but I'm not sure I can get to the dog. Probably pass in the end.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

yeah Turcios gonna lose lol. I did research and I really like Raul Rosas at -210

Agree. I think people shit on Rosa because he gassed hard against Rodriguez and they lost money on him. But that fight if anything showed his inexperience, more than he is talent. He went berserker mode in that fight and couldn't get the early finish against a really strong and underrated opponent. His takedowns and top game is really strong and I can't see Ricky be able to fend him off.

 

[Psychojoe86]

Tbh I feel this card has lots of underdog potential. Any opinions on betting all underdogs this event?

I think Moreno and yair will likely win as favorites, but the rest seem live to me

 

[Guld]

Why is the line movement going in the wrong direction for the Yair / Ortega fight?
Hardly seen anyone on the Ortega side but the odds on Yair is improving.

Yair's ML was starting to swell, but now it's is back to -163 where I nabbed it.
I still think that's a pretty reasonable line, and Ortega by Sub is +300 which is ideal for a hedge IMO.

 

[JC615]

Tbh I feel this card has lots of underdog potential. Any opinions on betting all underdogs this event?

I think Moreno and yair will likely win as favorites, but the rest seem live to me

Well, pretty sure more than 1 dog will cash unlike last weekend.