UFC Fight Night: Brandon vs Brandon, February 24

[lefontes]

Crazy value on Matheus Mendonça. Better in all áreas. Aguillar is a bum.

 

[Psychojoe86]

Well, pretty sure more than 1 dog will cash unlike last weekend.

Yeah but I would need more than 1-2 to profit. Probably winning at least 4 underdogs breaks even or gets slight profit.

Some of these underdogs have pretty good odds though so it's possible.

 

[JC615]

Yeah but I would need more than 1-2 to profit. Probably winning at least 4 underdogs breaks even or gets slight profit.

Some of these underdogs have pretty good odds though so it's possible.

Well do some parlays that don't suck and you'll be in the green, my friend.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Giagos came off a solid win on Ricky Glenn, he did a camp switch that made him much better. Prado has one solid win(Otto)

Zellhuber last couple of wins are solid but he's gained more experience against season pros. Prado has decent power, lets his hands go a lot, but is that enough to beat a patient fighter like Zellhuber?

I think to beat Zellhuber you have to be a more tactical fighter like Ogden. Given too it's in mexican soil, he's going to have the energy of the crowd. idk, maybe a punchers chance, I just don't see the upside other than Prado having a decent finish rate.

Did more tape on Prado and I'm off the bet.

 

[ExitLUPin]

I like Chris Duncan here. This is one of those "if _____ doesnt get a 1st round KO _____ is cooked" fights IMO

Duncan decision +1000
Duncan rd 3 or decision +500

If this goes past 1st round I dont see how Torres wins. Could be a good live betting spot on Duncan too.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I like Chris Duncan here. This is one of those "if _____ doesnt get a 1st round KO _____ is cooked" fights IMO

Duncan decision +1000
Duncan rd 3 or decision +500

If this goes past 1st round I dont see how Torres wins. Could be a good live betting spot on Duncan too.

Also, Torres was getting his face blasted by Motta, was losing until he landed that blast elbow. He also looked tired after one round, I think Duncan will take him to deep waters in the late, drown him with wrestling and wear him down or sub him.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Agree. I think people shit on Rosa because he gassed hard against Rodriguez and they lost money on him. But that fight if anything showed his inexperience, more than he is talent. He went berserker mode in that fight and couldn't get the early finish against a really strong and underrated opponent. His takedowns and top game is really strong and I can't see Ricky be able to fend him off.

what i dont like about Rosa is he’s born in 2004 and has questionable cardio. But other than that, the kid is solid. I’m expecting to see huge improvements in his boxing. Like u said, inexperience but that Rodriguez fight was a good lesson for him. The kid has a bright future

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Turcios accepts bottom position too easily. Rosa will be in his comfort zone. This is good match making by the UFC. Rosa won't even have to work hard to get take downs.

 

[Georges Hefner]

I took a stab on Ortega. I dont love my bet since is the kind of bet that I'll look like a genius or like an idiot. But I think 5 rounds is a lot of time for him to snatch a sub.
I also think Ortega hands are better than people give him credit for.

I just bet on him +125, odds were better but I still think its good bet. Yair is coming off a brutal beatdown, he’s washed now

 

[mkess101]

I just bet on him +125, odds were better but I still think its good bet. Yair is coming off a brutal beatdown, he’s washed now

???

Ortega is 33, Yair 31. The beatdown that Ortega took vs Holloway was one of the worst in the history of MMA. Way worse than anything Yair has ever gone through.

Saying either guy is "washed" makes no sense.

 

[mkess101]

what i dont like about Rosa is he’s born in 2004 and has questionable cardio. But other than that, the kid is solid. I’m expecting to see huge improvements in his boxing. Like u said, inexperience but that Rodriguez fight was a good lesson for him. The kid has a bright future

Even the cardio vs Rodriguez was likely just an adrenaline dump since he got put on the main card of a huge ppv so early in his career. In his dwcs fight, he went 15 minutes and it was all grappling. Scrambles, lots of fast twitch stuff that can tire guys quickly and he didn't fade. Won all the grappling exchanges.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Pyramid 1 - Raul Rosas Jr and Brandon Moreno to win.

 

[Guld]

I don't know if I'll be able to watch the card.
Got a bet on Yair, and a parlay of Rosas + Moreno. Still undecided if I should hedge with an Ortega by Sub.
Hopefully I'll be back home in time to catch those fights.
I think with the altitude that there will be some good livebetting opportunities (seeing guys gas between rounds potentially)

 

[EndlessCritic]

Crazy value on Matheus Mendonça. Better in all áreas. Aguillar is a bum.

Mendonca is the kind of guy to gas himself out chasing submissions. I have little doubt he's the better fighter than Aguilar. But Aguilar is much more conservative, has decent power, and a good guillotine.

Will have bet on Mendonca, and I actually agree this might be the best value on the entire card, but I would not be shocked with an Aguilar upset.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Giagos came off a solid win on Ricky Glenn, he did a camp switch that made him much better. Prado has one solid win(Otto)

Zellhuber last couple of wins are solid but he's gained more experience against season pros. Prado has decent power, lets his hands go a lot, but is that enough to beat a patient fighter like Zellhuber?

I think to beat Zellhuber you have to be a more tactical fighter like Ogden. Given too it's in mexican soil, he's going to have the energy of the crowd. idk, maybe a punchers chance, I just don't see the upside other than Prado having a decent finish rate.

degen play on zellhuber -3.5pts at -160 here. possibly biggest stake on the card.

 

[Georges Hefner]

???

Ortega is 33, Yair 31. The beatdown that Ortega took vs Holloway was one of the worst in the history of MMA. Way worse than anything Yair has ever gone through.

Saying either guy is "washed" makes no sense.

Ortega took 2 years off after that beatdown, and another 2 years since his last fight. Yair is coming too soon, he won’t be the same fighter. I also bet Ortega -160 in first fight and even at a loss, I don’t feel like I made a terrible bet. I will make the same bet and double down on it

 

[mkess101]

Ortega took 2 years off after that beatdown, and another 2 years since his last fight. Yair is coming too soon, he won’t be the same fighter. I also bet Ortega -160 in first fight and even at a loss, I don’t feel like I made a terrible bet. I will make the same bet and double down on it

I really thought Ortega had turned a corner in hoe he outstruck KZ. Turns out that while yes Ortega had improved his striking, KZ wasn't prepared AT ALL for that version of T City. Also, when he then fought Volk he took another beating. Time off helps, but that damage also accumulates.

My point was that saying one guy is "washed" and the other isn't here makes no sense. Max vs Yair was like 8 months ago. It's not like it was 2 months ago and he's a short notice replacement.

 

[mkess101]

Fanduel has Lacerda rd 1 at +800. That's nuts. Dude is a glass cannon that wilts after 5 minutes (and Chairez seems durable) but Lacerda has hurt almost everyone he's faced in rd 1.

Like...it's not likely to hit but why would anyone bet his ML at +400 when he's got very little chance of even surviving rd 2 if it goes past rd 1 (let alone winning).

He's dangerous AF for 5 minutes, and if he wins it's almost surely in rd 1. So +800...yep.

 

[Guld]

I really thought Ortega had turned a corner in hoe he outstruck KZ. Turns out that while yes Ortega had improved his striking, KZ wasn't prepared AT ALL for that version of T City. Also, when he then fought Volk he took another beating. Time off helps, but that damage also accumulates.

My point was that saying one guy is "washed" and the other isn't here makes no sense. Max vs Yair was like 8 months ago. It's not like it was 2 months ago and he's a short notice replacement.

Both Yair and Ortega have been beaten down by both Volk and Max. It's a painful commonality to have with your opponent haha

 

[BigSteve]

Torres 1,500 to win 1,200