UFC Fight Night: Brandon vs Brandon, February 24

[StewDogg11]

???

Ortega is 33, Yair 31. The beatdown that Ortega took vs Holloway was one of the worst in the history of MMA. Way worse than anything Yair has ever gone through.

Saying either guy is "washed" makes no sense.

99% of what @Georges Hefner says makes no sense.

 

[StewDogg11]

Both Yair and Ortega have been beaten down by both Volk and Max. It's a painful commonality to have with your opponent haha

Yair did way better against Max than Brian did.

 

[PuertoRican]

99% of what @Georges Hefner says makes no sense.

He's what you call a "character."

We need people like him, or else the forum would be boring.

 

[lefontes]

Mendonça is 2x bjj world champion, so think Jesus dont tap him.

 

[mkess101]

Yair did way better against Max than Brian did.

Very true. While Ortega did much better vs Volk (damn near subbed him) than Yair did.

 

[mkess101]

PrizePicks/Underdog for this card:

Last week PP my picks were 4-1, and Lemos over FS missed by .9 points LOL (was 75.5 and she scored 74.6).
UD picks went 2-1 (two of the picks were both Merab, he went over on his FS by 3 points but the sig strike handicap cashed easily).

This week's card really doesn't look like much value unfortunately. I'm not gonna give back my profit from last week chasing when I don't see a lot that jumps out. But there are a few that are decent.

PP:

Zellhuber under 91.5 FS. If you're fully sold that he finishes, maybe not the line for you. I'm not. He obviously could, but he's generally pretty low volume and to me the fight is more a coin toss. I don't see him scoring a lot with either TD or TDD, so if he wins a decision will be very hard to cover this. There's even a chance he could find a later KO and not cover if he hasn't done a ton leading up to it. And obviously if Prado wins, this cashes.

(This is Bellator/PFL)

Jackson/Cooper over 14.75 minutes fight time. Books have over 2.5 rounds juiced to around -150 and I agree. I think this sees the cards more often than not. Jackson doesn't chase finishes and should control the fight.

Nemkov/Bruno under 7.5 minutes fight time. Books have under 1.5 rounds juiced to -150, and Nemkov should get him out of there pretty early imo.

UD:

Yair/Ortega over 14 minutes fight time. (This is 14.75 minutes on PP, so UD is the better option). Both guys are durable, the early stoppage was a fluke last time. I think this should be a decent back and forth fight, with Yair getting the better of the standup and Ortega looking to impose some grappling. Both are pretty good finishers so there's some risk but I think the durability wins out and we see this one go pretty late.

Torres under 75.5 Fantasy Score. This is by far my favorite play. He's got 3 first round finishes so far, and 2 of the 3 he still wouldn't have covered this even with scoring knockdowns in all 3 fights. This is a very difficult number to cover in this format, even for someone who finishes their opponent (not impossible obviously, but very tough). This isn't even taking into account that Duncan is quite live to just win the fight outright.

My main play will be the above two on Underdog. There's just not much else I love.

GL all!

 

[StewDogg11]

Very true. While Ortega did much better vs Volk (damn near subbed him) than Yair did.

I still think Volkanovski head butting Rodriguez played a major part in that fight that no one really talks about.

 

[mkess101]

I still think Volkanovski head butting Rodriguez played a major part in that fight that no one really talks about.

I actually forgot about that but yeah it absolutely could have.

 

[TrueAscension]

Sup dudes, long time. Love T City tonight.

 

[mkess101]

Sup dudes, long time. Love T City tonight.

Hey man, welcome back!