UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2, Miami, Florida, March 9

[Georges Hefner]

why

Because HW talent pool is trash and Almeida knows this. He’s not a real HW. So he’s taking these easy fights instead of facing legit competition in 205

 

[Georges Hefner]

I strongly disagree. I have a hunch that Almeida is a glass canon waiting to be exposed. He goes heavy on wrestling cause his standup isn't good, now he's facing a grappler who's not going to fall for all his crap. Almeida has always struck me as an over bloated lhw in the wrong weight division.

You’re saying all that as if Blaydes is some dangerous striker. And there’s a reason he’s fighting at HW. He knows the fighters at HW are all low level except for 2

 

[BigSteve]

Because HW talent pool is trash and Almeida knows this. He’s not a real HW. So he’s taking these easy fights instead of facing legit competition in 205

I was more looking for a technical reason

 

[Stat_Collector]

You’re saying all that as if Blaydes is some dangerous striker. And there’s a reason he’s fighting at HW. He knows the fighters at HW are all low level except for 2

Almeida stand up is near non existent, he throws a few high kicks and waits for the shoot. He uses striking as a supplement/distraction , he has zero ability to finish here on the feet. Curtis isn't good he's just solid everywhere, and that is enough to beat Almeida a blown up lhw who spams grappling.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Almeida stand up is near non existent, he throws a few high kicks and waits for the shoot. He uses striking as a supplement/distraction , he has zero ability to finish here on the feet. Curtis isn't good he's just solid everywhere, and that is enough to beat Almeida a blown up lhw who spams grappling.

You’re underestimating Almeida. He just destroyed Derrick Lewis, who is a much better fighter than Blaydes. I don’t agree with your analysis at all. Especially now with no Usada, good luck betting against Almeida

 

[mkess101]

Almeida stand up is near non existent, he throws a few high kicks and waits for the shoot. He uses striking as a supplement/distraction , he has zero ability to finish here on the feet. Curtis isn't good he's just solid everywhere, and that is enough to beat Almeida a blown up lhw who spams grappling.

I agree about Almeida's striking but he's pretty crafty about getting guys to the mat. Maybe Blaydes wrestling pedigree helps him stay upright, and if it does he should be able to tee off. But if Almeida is able to put Curtis on his back, I'm not sure Curtis survives. I don't think he has the grit that Lewis had, and him being a wrestler---he's not used to being on his back.

 

[StewDogg11]

You’re underestimating Almeida. He just destroyed Derrick Lewis, who is a much better fighter than Blaydes. I don’t agree with your analysis at all. Especially now with no Usada, good luck betting against Almeida

Destroyed is quite the leap considering he did no damage. And while Lewis did beat Blaydes, Blaydes is twice the grappler that Lewis is and he’ll have a big size advantage over Almeida.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I agree about Almeida's striking but he's pretty crafty about getting guys to the mat. Maybe Blaydes wrestling pedigree helps him stay upright, and if it does he should be able to tee off. But if Almeida is able to put Curtis on his back, I'm not sure Curtis survives. I don't think he has the grit that Lewis had, and him being a wrestler---he's not used to being on his back.

Lewis i think largely avoided the rear naked because he tends to lay on his back and avoids turning to expose his back. all his getups are usually done by exploding from half guard or side control. In the Cody East /Blaydes fight , Curtis does indeed turn his back to getup, but he did it at a fast rate with decent well balance/hip ctrl. I've seen plenty of times Almeida get put on his back and reversed, so i don't believe Curtis is outside from sweeping and gaining top too. we'll see. I always tend to bet against bjj guys when it's wrestlers who can strike, it always tends to be bottom game bjj subs that kill wrestlers, which Almeida has no subs off his back. We'll see.

You’re underestimating Almeida. He just destroyed Derrick Lewis, who is a much better fighter than Blaydes. I don’t agree with your analysis at all. Especially now with no Usada, good luck betting against Almeida

styles make fights, Curtis was winning the fight up until the ko, the striking ratio was very wide. Almeida beat Lewis 2 years later when he switched camps that was downsized with weaker training partners. And Almeida beat Lewis by his weakness not his strength. Curtis is not a weak grappler like Lewis, he's grinded a big guy like Volk for 5 rounds with good grit. Even beating JDS who had wins on Tai and Lewis prior to their fight, Almeida could not have beaten JDS at 32 years old.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Blaydes has the ability to force the fight standing, and the available information suggests Blaydes is the more competent striker than Almeida.

Not sure what would be more surprising -- Almeida outwrestling Blaydes, or Almeida outstriking Blaydes. Blaydes outstriking Almeida is the most likely outcome.

Welcome to eat crow after Almeida wins.

 

[mkess101]

Lewis i think largely avoided the rear naked because he tends to lay on his back and avoids turning to expose his back. all his getups are usually done by exploding from half guard or side control. In the Cody East /Blaydes fight , Curtis does indeed turn his back to getup, but he did it at a fast rate with decent well balance/hip ctrl. I've seen plenty of times Almeida get put on his back and reversed, so i don't believe Curtis is outside from sweeping and gaining top too. we'll see. I always tend to bet against bjj guys when it's wrestlers who can strike, it always tends to be bottom game bjj subs that kill wrestlers, which Almeida has no subs off his back. We'll see.


styles make fights, Curtis was winning the fight up until the ko, the striking ratio was very wide. Almeida beat Lewis 2 years later when he switched camps that was downsized with weaker training partners. And Almeida beat Lewis by his weakness not his strength. Curtis is not a weak grappler like Lewis, he's grinded a big guy like Volk for 5 rounds with good grit. Even beating JDS who had wins on Tai and Lewis prior to their fight, Almeida could not have beaten JDS at 32 years old.

I'll also be interested to see if cardio plays a role should the fight go past the halfway point. Almeida managed to keep getting TD's vs Lewis, but he slowed a ton just the same. It's why he couldn't finish despite getting to dominant positions numerous times. Blaydes showed good cardio vs Volkov in that 5 rounder iirc.

 

[Guld]

I like:
-Blaydes -110 (I think he has the grappling to keep it standing, and far better striking. His kryptonite is heavy handed strikers and Almeida is not that)
-MVP +110 (Unless he loses a battle of chins, I think he's got the better technique for winning this one)
-O'Malley -250 (O'Malley has gotten better since their last fight, and IMO Vera has gotten worse the last few)
-Burns -120 (Can hold his own in the striking and should have a significant grappling advantage)

I'm also leaning
-Yadong +115 (I really liked how he adjusted stances/gameplans for his last fight. Yan kinda seems checked out lately but that could just be a matter of bad matchups/decision losses)
-Benoit -170 (Mostly the talk by Poirier of "I wonder if I can still compete with these young guys" or something like that. Makes me think that he knows he's gonna struggle with this one.)

Some great odds on a lot of those if you can pick the winners too. Only Gamrot and O'Malley being lower than -250 (currently)

 

[Stat_Collector]

I like:
-Blaydes -110 (I think he has the grappling to keep it standing, and far better striking. His kryptonite is heavy handed strikers and Almeida is not that)
-MVP +110 (Unless he loses a battle of chins, I think he's got the better technique for winning this one)
-O'Malley -250 (O'Malley has gotten better since their last fight, and IMO Vera has gotten worse the last few)
-Burns -120 (Can hold his own in the striking and should have a significant grappling advantage)

I'm also leaning
-Yadong +115 (I really liked how he adjusted stances/gameplans for his last fight. Yan kinda seems checked out lately but that could just be a matter of bad matchups/decision losses)
-Benoit -170 (Mostly the talk by Poirier of "I wonder if I can still compete with these young guys" or something like that. Makes me think that he knows he's gonna struggle with this one.)

Some great odds on a lot of those if you can pick the winners too. Only Gamrot and O'Malley being lower than -250 (currently)

i'm kinda cautious about Benoit. He hasn't earned a high level victory against an equal skill level opponent as Dustin.

This is kind of like the same reason we saw Shamill be wrongly mispriced, beating some mid competition with maybe Moises being the best win doesn't merit him being a favorite. Tho i hate grapplers vs Dustin because that is one of his weaknesses. I just see this as a dog or pass or just pass type fight.


--------
side note not related to your post.

Michel Perreira is also a trap favorite. He almost lost To Ponz and Olek is a tad better boxer than Ponz imo, so i don't see a reason why Olek can't win some boxing exchanges and the fight.

 

[Guld]

i'm kinda cautious about Benoit. He hasn't earned a high level victory against an equal skill level opponent as Dustin.

This is kind of like the same reason we saw Shamill be wrongly mispriced, beating some mid competition with maybe Moises being the best win doesn't merit him being a favorite. Tho i hate grapplers vs Dustin because that is one of his weaknesses. I just see this as a dog or pass or just pass type fight.


--------
side note not related to your post.

Michel Perreira is also a trap favorite. He almost lost To Ponz and Olek is a tad better boxer than Ponz imo, so i don't see a reason why Olek can't win some boxing exchanges and the fight.

I agree with your Benoit cautiousness. Dustin is a big step up. I do feel that Dustin's weakness against grapplers, combined with the fact that Benoit is all about that life, is why he should be favored. If Dustin starts stuffing takedowns successfully that could easily change though.
Based on the odds a livebet might be the way to play it. The first round should reveal who can implement their game.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I agree with your Benoit cautiousness. Dustin is a big step up. I do feel that Dustin's weakness against grapplers, combined with the fact that Benoit is all about that life, is why he should be favored. If Dustin starts stuffing takedowns successfully that could easily change though.
Based on the odds a livebet might be the way to play it. The first round should reveal who can implement their game.

I would be all over Benoit if he at least beat Elizeu , i know he came on short notice if remember. But he looked like he was going to die. And Dustin has had plenty of world wars with the likes of Hooker and Gaehtje , chandler, Halloway etc.. He's been through the rodeo so many times, that Benoit is going to have to go to the trenches with a more combat tested fighter.

i don't really see the grappling edge being enough here to justify him at current price. I have each around even or -115 a piece.

I actually see Benoit as even+ odds, he is debuting as a 5 round fighter which Dustin has more experience there too. I haven't done the taping, maybe there is some nuances to look for. But one thing i didn't like about Benoit is how much he constantly spams high kicks one after the other. I think Dustin Poirier will make him pay if he starts throwing that many telegraph kicks. It seems like when these guys reach the top they discover quick that the stuff that works at the mid level doesn't apply at the top.

i agree its a live bet type fight.

 

[mckinnley]

Josh Parisian and 40 year old RDA are auto fades

 

[Thesnake101]

Michel Perreira is also a trap favorite. He almost lost To Ponz and Olek is a tad better boxer than Ponz imo, so i don't see a reason why Olek can't win some boxing exchanges and the fight.

For me it boils down to the power Michel showed in his fight against Petroski, and the fact that we know he'll try to mix in the wrestling to go along with the striking. Think there's enough of an edge there that he should win comfortably.

Might even look into his sub line here.

 

[Georges Hefner]

The way the line flipped at the opening odds. This isn’t the public who did this, Saint denis is a lock

 

[sonhow]

Im on Benoit but am biased as fook by now. Dudes one of my favs now but this is a gigantic step up from the steamrolla. Still theres no quit in him at least. Wouldnt be shocked if we saw him KO Dustin on feet. Dustin been through so many wars he has to slow down eventually.

 

[mkess101]

Im on Benoit but am biased as fook by now. Dudes one of my favs now but this is a gigantic step up from the steamrolla. Still theres no quit in him at least. Wouldnt be shocked if we saw him KO Dustin on feet. Dustin been through so many wars he has to slow down eventually.

I have the exact same feeling. I'm leaning BSD but I'm self aware enough to realize that it's partially because I just love watching the dude fight. Like the kids say, he's got that dog in him. And quite obviously he's a finisher.
I've also been a big fan of Dustin over the years, and I actually kinda disagree with those saying his grappling is some sort of glaring weakness. He's far from elite, but he's capable imo. Has a terrific switch that generally keeps him upright anyway.

I'll be on BSD, but small. Because any way you slice it, this IS massive step up in competition for him. But yeah the all out wars that Dustin has been through are gonna catch up to him, probably soon. And he's coming off a pretty brutal KO loss.

 

[Stat_Collector]

For me it boils down to the power Michel showed in his fight against Petroski, and the fact that we know he'll try to mix in the wrestling to go along with the striking. Think there's enough of an edge there that he should win comfortably.

Might even look into his sub line here.

good point, if he fights off the back foot too and doesn’t get sucked into the middle exchanges barn burner. he should be able to coast.