UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

[KOPPE]

Fundamentally, when the odds are near pick-em on a fight between two fighters with tons of recent footage, there are no "safe" bets on the ML.

Folks definition of what constitutes a "safe" bet varies widely but imo that type of language is thrown around far too loosely in youtube videos by self proclaimed "experts".

This is Art C. hes been doing this for 20 years not just a random youtuber.

 

[mkess101]

Arman will likely ground Charles in round 1 and win the 1st round, but his top control tends to diminish with his gas tank in rounds 2-3. It's still pretty good, but Charles has enough game to work back to his feet. Joaquim found his way up, and his grappling is stiffer than Charles'. Charles did tap against Felder when he got elbowed; it's possible he can get ground and pounded.

It's kind of a scenario where we either see Charles get beaten in dominant fashion, or he pulls an out-of-nowhere meme KO and then calls out Islam for a rematch. Arman was KOed in his second fight in 30 seconds, a long time ago but still within the realm of possibility. I can see both scenarios playing out.



that is true stat wise.

Yeah. I think Armen being the hammer and Charles being the nail is around 75%, and vice versa 25%. So paying -225 is good by me on Armen.

 

[Guld]

Yeah. I think Armen being the hammer and Charles being the nail is around 75%, and vice versa 25%. So paying -225 is good by me on Armen.

I don't have the prop odds yet, but Arman ML and a hedge on Charles by stoppage might be a good play as well depending on the odds of course.

 

[mkess101]

I don't have the prop odds yet, but Arman ML and a hedge on Charles by stoppage might be a good play as well depending on the odds of course.

Not for me, I'm just all in on Armen ha ha. No hedge.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Figs inside line wonder what itll be... That feels like a tremendous parlay piece. I won money on Cody finish +180 against Kelleher but this is a very different style matchup. His chin is done. Trevin had him scared shitless off a glancingly landed punch in the 3rd round of their fight and he won the fight with wrestling. I dont think he'll have much success wrestling Fig here who is the better overall grappler, has as much power at least and a far better chin.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Bo is -3000 LMAOOOOOOOO

they are begging people to play Brundage

Playing Charles inside +250

Max sub is +2100.... He almost had a darce on KZ and nearly an arm triangle and RNC on Yair and in general is an underrated grappler with sub wins against Cub and Fili. We dont see it a whole lot but I think thats worth a sprinkle on a horrific sub grappler like Gaethje.

Surprised Bobby is only -180 against Jim. Jims finishes against low level comp fooling people? Bobby should be -300 at least IMO. I think hes gonna dominate. This is a tough matchup even for prime Jim w/ Bobbys boxing, defense, scrambling and defensive grappling never mind 40yo Jim.

I'd be on Kattar strong if not for the torn ACL. Dont see Aljo doing well at 145. He presents a grappling threat most FWs dont really have at least in this era but being one of the physically biggest BWs ever was a hooge reason for his success at 135. He wont have that here. Kattar has strong TDD and is the way better striker. His jab will be big too. Aljo struggled with Yans jab in both fights, 1 armed TJ as well. Will be tough for him to get clean shots IMO. Still leaning Kattar but wouldnt be surprised if its a slow paced fight where hes hesistant and shot and loses a tight 29-28 or something.

Jiri Rakic a weird one. Rakic has wrestling upside but dont see him controlling Jiri or landing significant GNP, def has no sub threat. Could even get reversed. He will def be throwing leg kicks. Rakic coming off injury himself. Strange circumstances but Jiri should be the slight favorite IMO surprised hes dog but close to even.

 

[burge13]

Forgot how much damage Green took in December v Turner. Quick turn around...

 

[mkess101]

Bo is -3000 LMAOOOOOOOO

they are begging people to play Brundage

Playing Charles inside +250

Max sub is +2100.... He almost had a darce on KZ and nearly an arm triangle and RNC on Yair and in general is an underrated grappler with sub wins against Cub and Fili. We dont see it a whole lot but I think thats worth a sprinkle on a horrific sub grappler like Gaethje.

Surprised Bobby is only -180 against Jim. Jims finishes against low level comp fooling people? Bobby should be -300 at least IMO. I think hes gonna dominate. This is a tough matchup even for prime Jim w/ Bobbys boxing, defense, scrambling and defensive grappling never mind 40yo Jim.

I'd be on Kattar strong if not for the torn ACL. Dont see Aljo doing well at 145. He presents a grappling threat most FWs dont really have at least in this era but being one of the physically biggest BWs ever was a hooge reason for his success at 135. He wont have that here. Kattar has strong TDD and is the way better striker. His jab will be big too. Aljo struggled with Yans jab in both fights, 1 armed TJ as well. Will be tough for him to get clean shots IMO. Still leaning Kattar but wouldnt be surprised if its a slow paced fight where hes hesistant and shot and loses a tight 29-28 or something.

Jiri Rakic a weird one. Rakic has wrestling upside but dont see him controlling Jiri or landing significant GNP, def has no sub threat. Could even get reversed. He will def be throwing leg kicks. Rakic coming off injury himself. Strange circumstances but Jiri should be the slight favorite IMO surprised hes dog but close to even.

I think Aljo's technique more than size is what makes him an elite MMA grappler. I guess we'll see, Kattar is a good but not great fighter imo but he does have very good TDD. But Aljo has the complete MMA grappling game, arguably the best back takes in the sport, and that threat makes his striking more effective. He's also on the mat every day with Merab which is only gonna keep his grappling sharp and top tier. Why he only shot one half-assed TD vs O'Malley is a mystery, but part of that is that O'Malley has phenomenal distance management and timing. Kattar just isn't near that level with his striking. I didn't understand Calvin opening as a favorite, but the value on Aljo is probably gone with him moving to -150. I have one parlay of him and Armen but that's all I'll have barring the line moving back towards Kattar.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Good chance Arman knocks Charles out on the feet. We've seen him in similar match-up with Joel Alvarez. Oliveira's striking defense is very poor, and his chin not that great. Most guys are deathly afraid to grapple with him which handicaps their striking. This fight isn't that tricky to break down.

 

[mkess101]

This is Art C. hes been doing this for 20 years not just a random youtuber.

Whether it's a 20 year betting veteran or a newbie, nobody should ever use the word "safe" for a fight (or any wager) with odds that are about even. It's just stupid.

 

[mkess101]

Good chance Arman knocks Charles out on the feet. We've seen him in similar match-up with Joel Alvarez. Oliveira's striking defense is very poor, and his chin not that great. Most guys are deathly afraid to grapple with him which handicaps their striking. This fight isn't that tricky to break down.

Agreed. Charles was clipped and hurt by Chandler, Dustin, and Justin. Kudos to Charles for overcoming it and winning all those fights. But Armen's grappling is levels beyond any of those guys (and this is from a guy who thinks people tend to underrate Dustin's grappling) so he can let his hands go way more and not be petrified of going to the mat like most are.

Also, I think people forget that Armen is only 27 and unlike all the old vets that Charles has recently beaten, Armen is likely still improving fight to fight. Good chance we see an even better version than previously.

 

[KOPPE]

Whether it's a 20 year betting veteran or a newbie, nobody should ever use the word "safe" for a fight (or any wager) with odds that are about even. It's just stupid.

He didnt use the word "safe". I did.
Hill is dangerous and is heavy handed and iron chinned, Pereira is slow, stiff and predictable. I feel safe betting on him in this match-up.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

-Jiri/Rakic (undecided) Jiri looked out of shape/withered in the weighins+fight with Alex. Maybe he got caught by USADA? Maybe his surgery + training has worn him down? Maybe the war with Glover changed him? Regardless, if his body looks like it did prior to Alex I'm going with Rakic. If he looks like he did prior to the Glover fight I'm going with Jiri.

Jiri's winning conditions are crazy pressure and pace. He needs every bit of athleticism and cardio to compensate for lack of technique and constant gambles that put him in bad positions. And even if he looks in good shape, who's to say his prior mentality to pressure like a mad man will come back automatically? Once a fighter calms their style down they rarely if ever change it back.

He didnt use the word "safe". I did.
Hill is dangerous and is heavy handed and iron chinned, Pereira is slow, stiff and predictable. I feel safe betting on him in this match-up.

I also think Hill is better, but I don't like his mentality comming into this fight. He seems agitated more than normal, very angry that fans disrespect him and seems to dismiss the skills of Pereira. Also he looks not in top shape. I would avoid this fight. Aside Jon Jones' fights, LHW fights are often high variance - AKA fluky unexpected shitshow.

 

[Oblivian]

Bo is -3000 LMAOOOOOOOO

they are begging people to play Brundage

Playing Charles inside +250

Max sub is +2100.... He almost had a darce on KZ and nearly an arm triangle and RNC on Yair and in general is an underrated grappler with sub wins against Cub and Fili. We dont see it a whole lot but I think thats worth a sprinkle on a horrific sub grappler like Gaethje.

Surprised Bobby is only -180 against Jim. Jims finishes against low level comp fooling people? Bobby should be -300 at least IMO. I think hes gonna dominate. This is a tough matchup even for prime Jim w/ Bobbys boxing, defense, scrambling and defensive grappling never mind 40yo Jim.

I'd be on Kattar strong if not for the torn ACL. Dont see Aljo doing well at 145. He presents a grappling threat most FWs dont really have at least in this era but being one of the physically biggest BWs ever was a hooge reason for his success at 135. He wont have that here. Kattar has strong TDD and is the way better striker. His jab will be big too. Aljo struggled with Yans jab in both fights, 1 armed TJ as well. Will be tough for him to get clean shots IMO. Still leaning Kattar but wouldnt be surprised if its a slow paced fight where hes hesistant and shot and loses a tight 29-28 or something.

Jiri Rakic a weird one. Rakic has wrestling upside but dont see him controlling Jiri or landing significant GNP, def has no sub threat. Could even get reversed. He will def be throwing leg kicks. Rakic coming off injury himself. Strange circumstances but Jiri should be the slight favorite IMO surprised hes dog but close to even.

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Miller lands on Green and stuns him before a sub or puts him away with strikes. I think damage is catching up to Green. Miller can throw long straights too which Green can have trouble with unless his reflexes are on point.

 

[mkess101]

He didnt use the word "safe". I did.
Hill is dangerous and is heavy handed and iron chinned, Pereira is slow, stiff and predictable. I feel safe betting on him in this match-up.

Okay LOL.

 

[KOPPE]

I also think Hill is better, but I don't like his mentality comming into this fight. He seems agitated more than normal, very angry that fans disrespect him and seems to dismiss the skills of Pereira. Also he looks not in top shape. I would avoid this fight. Aside Jon Jones' fights, LHW fights are often high variance - AKA fluky unexpected shitshow.

yeah. theres something wrong with this dude. He beat the shit out of his brother for calling him a deadbeat dad (which he is).
I remember when he was on ig begging for puss "we at this spot, any ladies want to come by and hit me up“ shits embarrassing.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

yeah. theres something wrong with this dude. He beat the shit out of his brother for calling him a deadbeat dad (which he is).
I remember when he was on ig begging for puss "we at this spot, any ladies want to come by and hit me up“ shits embarrassing.

LOL, Hill is not the sharpest tool in the shed.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

The biggest worry about Hill is his injury for me. I would for sure bet Hill if it wasn't for that.
He didn't plan for this comeback so it could be too early or at least there is a risk that he hasn't trained as much as he would have otherwise.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

The biggest worry about Hill is his injury for me. I would for sure bet Hill if it wasn't for that.
He didn't plan for this comeback so it could be too early or at least there is a risk that he hasn't trained as much as he would have otherwise.

He got a big check to headline this card and he said that himself. Probably the money was too good to pass, even if you can't properly train.
Of course he can still win. But I'm pretty sure he's not 100%.

 

[mkess101]

Honestly, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Miller lands on Green and stuns him before a sub or puts him away with strikes. I think damage is catching up to Green. Miller can throw long straights too which Green can have trouble with unless his reflexes are on point.

Even in Miller's recent wins it's looked more that his opponents are just not good than that he has done anything all that great. I don't see him landing on Bobby much, at least not nearly as much as vice versa. Miller is always dangerous on the mat, but I tend to think he won't have any success taking Bobby down at all.