UFC Fight Island III: Benavidez v Figuereido II

[Broe.]

So...watched a bit of tape and man does it look like Dawson should just manhandle Narimani in the grappling game. He's slick, strong, and seems to really know what he's doing. Honestly, to be fair both guys looked better than I remember with their grappling (Narimani doesn't suck) but Dawson seems to be on another level.

The thing is, not sure if he finds a finish or not. But I do think he's gonna win pretty convincingly. Best play imo is Dawson -3.5 at -135. Would rather take that than pay -230 juice on his ML. Almost twice as expensive on the ML for a fight that he could very easily finish, and if not he may well not lose a round on any judges card (could look like Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa).

Really? Dawson's grappling looked pretty bad vs Erosa, Erosa managed to get up every time he wanted to. I am definitely not impressed with Dawson. His striking is also terrible. He is relentless that is his strong point but he is bound to lose anytime soon. I am not sure if Narimani is the guy to beat him but I wouldn't at all be surprised.

 

[mkess101]

Really? Dawson's grappling looked pretty bad vs Erosa, Erosa managed to get up every time he wanted to. I am definitely not impressed with Dawson. His striking is also terrible. He is relentless that is his strong point but he is bound to lose anytime soon. I am not sure if Narimani is the guy to beat him but I wouldn't at all be surprised.

Juicy J is game as hell though, and Dawson mat returned him time after time. He is relentless, and his back takes and positional advancements are good imo. He doesn't seem to slow down either.

His striking is not all that good though, agree. If he loses, I have to believe he gets caught standing. For someone wanting to hedge, I guess Narimani KO at +850 would be the way to go?

 

[theTKDguy]

FDGTD odds for fig vs benavides are really good. On them

 

[Spounman]

Pantoja or Askarov what do you guys think?

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Carlos Felipe vs Spivac thoughts?

 

[Monster Meat]

Pantoja or Askarov what do you guys think?

pantoja

 

[theTKDguy]

Pantoja or Askarov what do you guys think?

Pantoja i think

 

[NewLockGuy]

Pantoja or Askarov what do you guys think?

Pantoja finish.

 

[ctelooming]

Pantoja or Askarov what do you guys think?

If Askarov had better cardio I might consider him but he was gassing and being walked down by Tim freaking Elliott of all people in the 3rd round. I think Pantoja wins at least 2 rounds or gets a late gnp finish

 

[NewLockGuy]

Carlos Felipe vs Spivac thoughts?

Carlos looks like a fat little bum clubber... Probably round 1 or bust for him.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Pantoja or Askarov what do you guys think?

Dog or pass

Pantoja is probably the better fighter, but at those odds with his history of just eating punches I don't get how anyone could be THAT confident in him

 

[Monster Meat]

Dog or pass

Pantoja is probably the better fighter, but at those odds with his history of just eating punches I don't get how anyone could be THAT confident in him

hes just better than Askarov all around as long as he stuffs the takedowns he’s winnning a 2-1 dec in my opinion

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Carlos looks like a fat little bum clubber... Probably round 1 or bust for him.

Yup i noticed at the face off's and weigh's in.That face down stare was interesting haha. This is truly a 50/50 one.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Pantoja or Askarov what do you guys think?

Give me Pantoja. I still favor Pantoja in this fight match.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Carlos Felipe vs Spivac thoughts?

Hard to have any thoughts on Felipe when we have barely any tape on him, and what we do have is from 3 years ago on a fighter who is only 25.

 

[piglord]

hes just better than Askarov all around as long as he stuffs the takedowns he’s winnning a 2-1 dec in my opinion

i don't think askarov is very positionally sound. if pantoja gets taken down i think he can force a scramble and work his way to his feet or take top position.

 

[rille31]

I like Ramos. Great jiu jitsu. Crushing power. He would’ve broke Nick heins jaw with his squeeze had he not tapped. Arman is very young and very inexperienced. If he chooses to engage in grappling I think Ramos can tap him

He has more fights then Ramos

 

[ill800]

He has more fights then Ramos

Ramos has 6 ufc fights to his 2

 

[iGnP]

Figuerido ML -230

I'm generally not a fan of betting a prop that's not + money but I def would play Fig (t)ko over Fig ML, since its -110 versus -230. I dont think the chances of Fig winning a decision justifies a difference in implied probability of ~17%, especially considering he finished Joe B last time. Thoughts?

 

[HockeyBjj]

Just realized Figuerdo (spelled that wrong) by decision at +400 is really intriguing. Yeah, we know the last fight ended in KO after a head butt and Figgy looks like a powerhouse tank at 125

But Joey B has only ever been stopped once other than the last fight, to Mighty Mouse in 2013.

Of Figgy’s UFC fights, 3 of 7 went to a decision. I think there’s a good chance Figgy pounds Joey B but can’t put him away. Joey B won’t gas out and get finished just from exhaustion like we sometime see in 5 rounders. At +400 odds that’s a better chance than I feel I normally see at that amount of payout. Tossed half a unit on that.