So...watched a bit of tape and man does it look like Dawson should just manhandle Narimani in the grappling game. He's slick, strong, and seems to really know what he's doing. Honestly, to be fair both guys looked better than I remember with their grappling (Narimani doesn't suck) but Dawson seems to be on another level.
The thing is, not sure if he finds a finish or not. But I do think he's gonna win pretty convincingly. Best play imo is Dawson -3.5 at -135. Would rather take that than pay -230 juice on his ML. Almost twice as expensive on the ML for a fight that he could very easily finish, and if not he may well not lose a round on any judges card (could look like Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa).