UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

[Joseph Budden]

The UFC To Add A New Weight Class In 2016?

+2000, 21.0

maybe atom weight for the chicks?

I don't like it, I know there have been rumors but i'd be shocked. I think they still have some work to do developing other weight classes. Its been years since we had mens 125 and that shit still has almost no interesting prospects.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Regarding the Eddie/Melendez fight. I was on Eddie winning by DEC and the pointspread, and I pretty much thought my money was gone after Eddie's eye completely closed up, but he gritted it out and still managed to pull off the win despite a pretty big disadvantage. I don't really see him edging the win that he's over the hill. Still heavily favor Pettis though. No plays on that fight so far.

Not sure if anyone saw this. Yes, I still needed Pettis and Silva, but damn, the judges always gotta fuck something up for me. Also had a few other parlays that would've cashed if Noke won

Well, it IS a 14-part parlay, if it wasn't Noke that busted it, it could have been MacDonald losing or Larkin getting the split based on damage. You're already flipping so many coins and expect them to land your way as it is.

 

[null]

The UFC To Add A New Weight Class In 2016?

+2000, 21.0

maybe atom weight for the chicks?

I'd love to put $25 on it at that price. Women's featherweight (maybe for Cyborg or a returning Gina Carano), flyweight or atomweight (if they find some hot marketable 105'er) are all outside possibilities. Men's strawweight or cruiserweight are very much long shots.

 

[Sham5916910]

Early thoughts on Latifi and Sean

This should be a brawling slug fest especially with Sean, that guy simply walks his opponents down with never ending pressure and throws punches in bunches hoping something connects, if he manages to get close to opponents he likes to grind them against the cage working on dirty boxing and just holding them there, oddly it does work well for him at times. Latifi should be the much better fighter coming in, he paces himself, picks his shots making sure each shot is powerful and significant and he also has a powerful low leg kick with his tree trunk legs. Latifi also looks for openings to land counter punches on over aggressive opponents that get to close to him. Sean should be a terrible style for latifi really.

Latifi is also an 2 time Greco & ADCC winner which all comes from his Swedish wrestling background, he has been wrestling since he was young I don't see Sean holding such a tank against the cage for to long.

I expect latifi to be unplayable, but perhaps parlay fodder or even latifi to finish props maybe worth a stab.

When you say unplayable what do you expect Latifi's line to be? I thought Latifi may be -200 or have i got that all wrong? If O'Connell is +200 all the value is on him IMO. He was crazily the dog against Perosh so maybe bookies will underestimate him again. Hes one tough cat with a good chin power and decent wrestling. He was bringing it to Jimmo until he got caught and him and Villante was a close fight where both landed big bombs. He also showed great toughness against Van Buren who he struggled with due to his length clearly Latifi wont have that advantage.

Latifi hasnt overly impressed me. Beat a some what faded Diabate and Dempsey and Stringer meh. Im not saying i think O'Connell wins but i have seen nothing that would make me bet Latifi as a big favourite. I think this is a competitive fight.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Well, it IS a 14-part parlay, if it wasn't Noke that busted it, it could have been MacDonald losing or Larkin getting the split based on damage. You're already flipping so many coins and expect them to land your way as it is.

If you want to think of it like that, I actually would've made out great if McDonald OR Tumenov lost. I had prefight bets on Kanehara and added 1u +250 lb after R1. Also had 2u on Larkin +215 prefight, .33u +610 DEC and added 1u +350 lb. I would've gladly had either of them bust the parlay instead of Noke becuase I had absolutely nothing on Morono.

 

[Ukram]

Hettes/Rosa

But both have similar styles, both are always pressing forward looking to grapple, clinch and get the game to the ground to start work. Both are brown belts in bjj, but Rosa appears coming from the better credited bjj instructor and from American top team camp. Its going to be an odd fight imo, both very similar in fighting style, using striking to set up take downs and looking for submissions. Rosa may have more success in r2 or r3 since hettes tends to tire and slow down he has also had weight cutting issues in the past. It does feel like a pass atm, perhaps fight does not go distance or fight ends via sub, can't envision it going the distance since both guys will be working to submit each other for 15 minutes here, but if I had to guess would feel Rosa sub is more likely.

 

[Ukram]

When you say unplayable what do you expect Latifi's line to be? I thought Latifi may be -200 or have i got that all wrong? If O'Connell is +200 all the value is on him IMO. He was crazily the dog against Perosh so maybe bookies will underestimate him again. Hes one tough cat with a good chin power and decent wrestling. He was bringing it to Jimmo until he got caught and him and Villante was a close fight where both landed big bombs. He also showed great toughness against Van Buren who he struggled with due to his length clearly Latifi wont have that advantage.

Latifi hasnt overly impressed me. Beat a some what faded Diabate and Dempsey and Stringer meh. Im not saying i think O'Connell wins but i have seen nothing that would make me bet Latifi as a big favourite. I think this is a competitive fight.

Yeah could be -200, I expect latifi to be the firm fav coming in but yeah can never tell till the lines out.
Sean is a decent dog but style wise I think its still a bad match up for latifi, he hits harder while picking his shots, does even better when guys come forward and has much better wrestling credentials advantage coming in. Sean has also shown he does not do well with guys that mix in kicks and heavy punches, probably does not help when your walking non stop forward with his chin up and face wide open

Still doing tape watching but I may follow suit and do some pre-bet parlays, your pettis + Pearson parlay sounds good but bit weary with trinaldo! I need to refresh myself since if I recall his striking and defence looked good against parke, silva and other decent strikers, taking out the undefeated prospect in laprise is a big one also, we know his wrestling and ground game is good too. Ill get back to that one soon.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Hettes/Rosa

But both have similar styles, both are always pressing forward looking to grapple, clinch and get the game to the ground to start work. Both are brown belts in bjj, but Rosa appears coming from the better credited bjj instructor and from American top team camp. Its going to be an odd fight imo, both very similar in fighting style, using striking to set up take downs and looking for submissions. Rosa may have more success in r2 or r3 since hettes tends to tire and slow down he has also had weight cutting issues in the past. It does feel like a pass atm, perhaps fight does not go distance or fight ends via sub, can't envision it going the distance since both guys will be working to submit each other for 15 minutes here, but if I had to guess would feel Rosa sub is more likely.

I'm leaning towards Hettes in this match up but not by a huge margin. They're both extremely similar fighters as grapplers. I favor Hettes slightly because I think he has the better TDs but Rosa should have an edge somewhat standing as he throws alot of kicks and should be the busier range striker.

They both have a finishing mentality yes but I wouldn't rule out the decision because they're both well versed in submissions and it could in a sense cancel eachother out.

I have been so underwhelmed and disappointed by Felder so far, maybe it is just because he came int othe UFC with signifcant hype. Felder is fade material IMO.

My prediction for Fedler is that he will not be in the UFC by the end of the year. Frankly, I don't think he is mentally tough or cut out to be in the UFC. I think Felder lacks self confidence which is kryptonite to fighting at this level. I am willing to eat my words but this is what I see so far.

Cruik has his own issues so not saying I am going to back him but I am no longer interested in betting passive Felder. It might just be a no play fight for me or just bet the over.

I think you're outlook is wrong on Felder. I've bet against him in his 2 losses but I think he's still coming into his own. His confidence to me isn't an issue. I think his UFC career has been trial by fire going up against guys that are better traveled than he, but once he finds his footing I think he'll go on a nice little run. In the end though, he's 1 dimensional in his approach because he doesn't have much of an offensive grappling game but he's definitely a high level kickboxer. His feints are beautiful to watch and he's one of the few that has successfully translated his striking style to MMA in my opinion because he knows how to fight wrestlers. I like what I see, even in his losses.

 

[Sham5916910]

Yeah could be -200, I expect latifi to be the firm fav coming in but yeah can never tell till the lines out.
Sean is a decent dog but style wise I think its still a bad match up for latifi, he hits harder while picking his shots, does even better when guys come forward and has much better wrestling credentials advantage coming in. Sean has also shown he does not do well with guys that mix in kicks and heavy punches, probably does not help when your walking non stop forward with his chin up and face wide open

Still doing tape watching but I may follow suit and do some pre-bet parlays, your pettis + Pearson parlay sounds good but bit weary with trinaldo! I need to refresh myself since if I recall his striking and defence looked good against parke, silva and other decent strikers, taking out the undefeated prospect in laprise is a big one also, we know his wrestling and ground game is good too. Ill get back to that one soon.

Watched Trinaldo against Silva and Arreola so far. Not much striking in either fight he grounded Arreola for most of it and him and Silva were back and forth on the floor. From what i saw standing his stand up did not overly impress me. Pearson is far more technical. Laprise is not a decent prospect IMO he struggled with Barbarenna or whatever his name is from what i remember. That fight is Trinaldo's only stoppage win in the UFC since his debut so he isnt a huge puncher as Pearson's chin is a bit of a concern but im not too worried about Trinaldo exposing it. I know he beat Laprise in his backyard but all his other fights have been in Brazil besides the loss to Chisea so hes at a disadvantage fighting in the States. Parke's boxing is ok but hes so pillow fisted you can walk him down Parke was also completely robbed in that fight. Trinaldo 37 too im pretty sure Pearson wins a comfortable decision. Also Trinaldo does tend to slow down Pearson's always in good shape.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I expect Pearson to outstrike Trinaldo but only if he's in the -125/-170 range. Pearson is one of my favorite fighters but he'll find himself at a disadvantage if Trinaldo finds himself in top position.

Trinaldo is a BIG LW and he's a capable wrestler but I expect Pearson to mind his Ps and Qs and try to find his rhythm before turning it up in the 2nd and 3rd if he's convinced that Trinaldo will stand and bang with him.

But even then, Ross has got to watch himself in the stand up too because I did not expect Trinaldo to lay out Laprise either. I think it's a dangerous fight for Pearson so I'll only bet him within reason. -200 or further is out of the question.

Not to mention, Evan Dunham was able to outwrestle Pearson. Both Dunham and Trinaldo are southpaw kickboxers who are grapplers by trade.

With all that said, my prediction is Ross comes in very calculated and turns it up as the fight progresses.

 

[Ukram]

Tim/Ed

I do like tim in this one, ed can be gritty when he has opponents against the cage, and he has a good ground game with high submissions but Tim does better with his striking when up close and when opponents are aggressive, his hand speed appears better and faster where as eds striking comes slower and requires bit more distance. Both are clearly towards the end of there careers and been in many wars, I think hendos right hand is still nuclear and it destroys most, otherwise style wise I do like Tim to land something significant on ed.

 

[jrwfsl147]

I see Rille discussing the betfair props, has to be value in the 11/2 on 5 or more of the belts to change hands… IMO


- HW= Werdum probably losing to Cain.

- LHW= Jones takes out Cormier.

- MW= Probably Rockhold retains.

- WW= Lawler lost two of his last three according to most people, as long as it’s not Woodley next there’s a good chance of him losing before year end. Might even get two more title fights.

- LW= RDA loses to 100% Khabib, plus who the fuck knows about Conor? Certainly not a dominant champ.

- FW= Edgar stylistically favourable match up vs CM, chance that McGregor vacates belt anyway.

- BW= TJ’s not dominant, Cruz has a good shot. He’ll walk through Faber, but maybe squeezes in a third fight vs. Almeida or Sterling at year’s end.

- FLW= Mighty Mouse show, see him keeping it.

- WBW= If RR fights properly, she’s capable of beating HH.

- WSW= Gadelha won the first fight, JJ looked pretty shitty vs Valerie, again a good chance.

Seven of the ten changed hands last year, only TJ, DJ and Lawler kept theirs.

 

[EzFlyer]

Think Felder is just a better version of Cruick. Hoping lines are playable i'll be all over Felder

Not sure if I agree with this

He's a few inches taller, less of a wrestler, tighter striker.. Less mobile.. Maybe less volume when on feet. Less kicks.

I hear ya. But not sure if I agree with the comparison

 

[rille31]

I see Rille discussing the betfair props, has to be value in the 11/2 on 5 or more of the belts to change hands… IMO


- HW= Werdum probably losing to Cain.

- LHW= Jones takes out Cormier.

- MW= Probably Rockhold retains.

- WW= Lawler lost two of his last three according to most people, as long as it’s not Woodley next there’s a good chance of him losing before year end. Might even get two more title fights.

- LW= RDA loses to 100% Khabib, plus who the fuck knows about Conor? Certainly not a dominant champ.

- FW= Edgar stylistically favourable match up vs CM, chance that McGregor vacates belt anyway.

- BW= TJ’s not dominant, Cruz has a good shot. He’ll walk through Faber, but maybe squeezes in a third fight vs. Almeida or Sterling at year’s end.

- FLW= Mighty Mouse show, see him keeping it.

- WBW= If RR fights properly, she’s capable of beating HH.

- WSW= Gadelha won the first fight, JJ looked pretty shitty vs Valerie, again a good chance.

Seven of the ten changed hands last year, only TJ, DJ and Lawler kept theirs.

what about this one

henry cejudo To Hold The Flyweight Title In 2016 +500, 6.0

will his ml be worse then +500 when he fights mm?

if not there is value

 

[Joseph Budden]

Not sure if I agree with this

He's a few inches taller, less of a wrestler, tighter striker.. Less mobile.. Maybe less volume when on feet. Less kicks.

I hear ya. But not sure if I agree with the comparison

They have differences of course, but I see the fight playing out with Felder just doing the things Cruick likes to do, just doing them more effectively. Think Felder's tdd will negate Cruick's offensive wrestling, only thing I am worried about is that output difference, but I need to do some tape watching. Could've swore in the Barboza fight Felder pulled the trigger a fair amount.

 

[mkess101]

They have differences of course, but I see the fight playing out with Felder just doing the things Cruick likes to do, just doing them more effectively. Think Felder's tdd will negate Cruick's offensive wrestling, only thing I am worried about is that output difference, but I need to do some tape watching. Could've swore in the Barboza fight Felder pulled the trigger a fair amount.

Felder threw a ton of spinning stuff in that fight, and if you rewatch it you'll find the fight was FAR from one sided. Yes, Edson won. But Felder was right there, landing his own shots and easily taking everything Barbosa threw. I think the body kicks slowed Felder down some by rd 3. Felder's big mistake was thinking he could just take those and feel no effects. He did it for over 2 rounds, but there was a slight slowdown in the third. But nobody throws kicks as hard and fast as Edson.

In the Pearson fight Felder really did show his inexperience. It seemed like nothing Ross hit him with really bothered him at all, but Felder's inactivity showed a lack of good fight IQ. He just seemed to think "Meh, at some point I'll catch him and put him away, not worried." Meanwhile Ross is showing good movement and landing all kinds of shots for 15 minutes.

 

[Almirante]

http://www.mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/ufc-fight-night-81-opening-betting-odds/

Cote (+115) 1u

 

[Roger FedorAIR]

Woah, Cote opens as the dog. Can't say I was expecting that!

Not sure where the line is going to move, but I'm already happy with +115, so I'll just play it now.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Openers hit 5d. Missed Cote +115 but hit +105 pretty hard. My initial lean is Cote is a horrible match up for Ben.

Nothing else jumps at me right off the bat. Need to do some film study and don't expect too much shifting from openers other than maybe Cote vs Saunders line flipping

EDIT nvm actually think o2.5 for the Rosa-Hettes fight at -135 is pretty damn good. Hoping it doesn't jump too much, wanna tapewatch first but that looks real nice.

 

[EzFlyer]

Maxxed rosa -140

Bet cote +115
Bet cote o2.5 +120 (small)