UFC Fight Night 81 - Dillashaw vs Cruz

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I agree, +1085 is a no-brainer, Mitrione has been submitted by guys like McSweeney and Big Ben.

Pettis has more submission wins (8) than KO wins (7), so I'm also taking +510.

So far...

Wade (+180) 1u
Cote (+115) 1u
Browne (-156) 1u
Browne SUB (+1085) 0.2u
Pettis SUB (+510) 0.2u
Cruz (+120) 1u

Base amount, by the way.

Also eyeing Pearson and Rosa, -150 or better would be nice.
 
Having a hard time with the Cote fight, he certainly looked great against Burkman but his ground game has always been a weakness and Ben has a very dangerous guard. However Ben likes to brawl and he might choose to do so against Cote, might have to skip that one
 
browne sub was +1085.. i hit it small, but man, wish i bet more! down to +600 already...
 
EzFlyer said:
browne sub was +1085.. i hit it small, but man, wish i bet more! down to +600 already...
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Dang, that's absurd.

I missed it altogether, but even @ +600, I still think it's very playable, so I'm gonna make a small play on it.
 
Yeah i like having one thread to check
 
I personally like just checking one thread

EDIT: Others already beat me to it

Maybe we can move this thread over there, though
 
openers:
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current:
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can't gauge how good O'connell's TDD and his ability to get back up is. If he can keep this fight standing for most of the fight, he can win this fight with his constant pressure. hearing him working on his wrestling is a good thing although if Latifi wants to take it to the ground, he probably will succeed. still, at the current line, i think the value is on O'connell.
 
conmemay said:
can't gauge how good O'connell's TDD and his ability to get back up is. If he can keep this fight standing for most of the fight, he can win this fight with his constant pressure. hearing him working on his wrestling is a good thing although if Latifi wants to take it to the ground, he probably will succeed. still, at the current line, i think the value is on O'connell.
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i think he'll probably climb; latifi will likely be a parlay anchor for people

not sure, myself, honestly. latifi looks like a KILLER sometimes... and sometimes he doesn't... (blachowicz)
 
Think I wrote it somewhere earlier, or at least parts of it but here it comes.

I think this is a showcase for Edilov and I cap him around -250, dude is big and strong with a decent overall skillset and he finishes fights. He's exciting to watch and although I wish he played it slightly more safe in some situations, maybe try to get some hooks in before you choke dudes and such, you just gotta know that the UFC loves his style. Barroso on the other hand is boring as watching paint dry on a very sober wall a cloudy day in an unimaginative country, he's not very good at anything and he'll never be top15. It's also his first fight outside of Brazil that I can recall and as far as I can tell it's just set up for the Russian to get some highlights in better resolution and some UFC-hype going.

I did bet the under 1.5 at +140 for 0.8u and the Edilov ML for 3u, which is slightly more then I like but I've decided to be somewhat aggressive with bets on fights I've watched a decent bit of tape on and feel I understand somewhat.
 
Well, he looked ok before he got kicked to the body hard and just shut down vs Blachowicz. Think he's a killer overall but not terribly hard to hurt. It's just that unless you hit him clean and hurts him at once the guy gets hold of you one way or another and then you're in trouble.

Don't think O'Connell is the type to hurt him early with anything but if he survives I'm not sure all that muscle can go hard for three rounds so then most bets are off.

Latifi did an interview like 3-4 days ago in the Swedish magazine "Café" (like Playboy, except horrible in every possible way) and said something like:

"Every match is incredibly (Swedish ppl overuse that word thought) important and the margin of error is very small. The next fight is one step closer to my goal to get a title fight. I hope to get to top10 asap and after that you never know what happens".

It's the only interview I've found so far (or like, before yesterday, haven't searched much today) and while it's a fluff piece without much info except that he does his camp in Miami (guessing ATT since someone said he had been there before) since it's his first fight in the USA and he wants to get used to the time zone and such. It's much more positive then the stuff he said before the last fight when he was mostly complaining about how much everything hurt and stuff like that.

Did 2u on the under 1.5r @ 2.15, think he stops O'Connel early most of the times he wins and it covers fluke KO's and such too.

Link: http://www.cafe.se/gjorde-galet-inhopp-for-mauler-nu-ar-ilir-latifi-sveriges-naste-ufc-stjarna/
 
Yea think the over might be good. However, Gomez modus operandi seems to be counter striking and just knocking fools out when they rush in and try to get past his range/get a TD/gets annoyed in general.

Got 2u on the dog here, think he can get the KO a lot. Seems like a really smart fighter, despite the short notice and such.
 
Yea watched tape and I'm on Boetsch. Close to home, looks way less stiff and seems more active. Herman's last two fights was not pretty, also can't figure out if he does his camp at a BJJ-gym or a close by Fitness gym which seems to spam facebook with lots of weird non-fighting stuff.
 
I really don't feel the Latifi love. No way I would trust him to anchor a parlay at -250 against a tough boy like O'Connell.
 
Pearson still -187 on my books think i am going to hold out as looks like line is dropping elsewhere.
 
Latifi is currently -205 @ Bookmaker. Just placed my bet.
 
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