UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall

[Card]

Opening / Current

 

[burge13]

Blaydes, a good wrestler, underdog against a brit. Sign me up

 

[Thesnake101]

Probably passing on the main event unless Curtis' odds get more lopsided. Maybe will look into the over.

Amirkhani by sub seems like a tempting bet since he showed last fight that he can still choke a guy out if they serve their head on a silver platter. Over for Pimblett fight might be good as well, also might take Gus at dog odds since I really think Krylov is dumb enough to give this fight away.

 

[Stat_Collector]

researching mokaev and Charles has been a blast, they going back and forth on twitter. Mokaev hints at wrestling him and Charles claiming he beat him in a spar standing. Seen CHarles get his back taken multiple times, i can see a rnc prop bet, either that or dec. kinda 50/50

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I don't think Jack Hermansson loses to a Chris Curtis style fighter. I love Chris Curtis but there's heavy recency bias here imo. Jack only loses to top guys usually.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Blaydes, a good wrestler, underdog against a brit. Sign me up

Over simplification imo. Blaydes quite often struggles to hold people down and slows down. Aspinall is a BJJ blackbelt and I like him to give Blaydes enough to think about on his back if he gets taken down to get back up again.

Blaydes is also quite confident on his feet these days, which against someone as fast and poweful as Aspinall is a problem imo.

I took Aspinall at 2.05 odds early.

 

[BigSteve]

I don't think Jack Hermansson loses to a Chris Curtis style fighter. I love Chris Curtis but there's heavy recency bias here imo. Jack only loses to top guys usually.

I mostly agree, although some similarities between Curtis and Vetorri. Southpaw boxers, durable, good TDD. Curtis has more power and works the body more, although Vettoris chin is crazier and he is clearly bigger

 

[Thesnake101]

I don't think Jack Hermansson loses to a Chris Curtis style fighter. I love Chris Curtis but there's heavy recency bias here imo. Jack only loses to top guys usually.

It all depends on how Jack' wrestling looks early, because I don't see how he'd react to Curtis' boxing in any way other than crumbling tbh.

 

[benebox]

Betting craig sub +220 alongside volk KO +190 is basically free money.

 

[rille31]

Looked at a video of Gus hitting pads, looked fast and sharp

Seems to be in great shape to

 

[JC615]

Looked at a video of Gus hitting pads, looked fast and sharp

Seems to be in great shape to

Good because he's been off 2 years. Anyone think Goldy is LIVE against McCann? If I recall, Goldy put on some muscle and has looked better in recent showing(s). That being said, Molly looks in better shape now judging by her last fight. I realize how hard it is to beat Molly in the UK but she's already getting steamed and that could seriously crush a lot of parlays for the books. Let me be clear, I do lean Molly, especially after seeing Goldy's IG page. However, -400...

 

[matthew55]

Good because he's been off 2 years. Anyone think Goldy is LIVE against McCann? If I recall, Goldy put on some muscle and has looked better in recent showing(s). That being said, Molly looks in better shape now judging by her last fight. I realize how hard it is to beat Molly in the UK but she's already getting steamed and that could seriously crush a lot of parlays for the books. Let me be clear, I do lean Molly, especially after seeing Goldy's IG page. However, -400...

Goldy has a path to victory if she can get takedowns, which iirc Molly doesnt have the greatest tdd. I would think that be her gameplan, especially in the UK, not let the crowd get her goin while also winning rounds

 

[Joonc]

Betting craig sub +220 alongside volk KO +190 is basically free money.

Nah playing that is begging to get fucked by a boring decision lol.

 

[Joonc]

I really dont understand this money that has been pouring in on Jack. At -140 Curtis was a steal, at pick em odds Curtis has to be one of if not the best line of the year. Jack is getting tuned on the feet everytime if he can't take Curtis to the ground and Jack's takedown game is mediocre whereas Curtis has stellar TDD. This is an excellent stylistic matchup for the action man and I cap him at least -300.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Goldy has a path to victory if she can get takedowns, which iirc Molly doesnt have the greatest tdd. I would think that be her gameplan, especially in the UK, not let the crowd get her goin while also winning rounds

Goldy is absolutely dogshit tbf. She caught Whitmire with the armbar but she's tailor made for Molly to just bash up on the feet.

 

[JC615]

How do you guys feel about Herbert/Nelson and Silva/Dalby?

 

[Danis_champ]

I really dont understand this money that has been pouring in on Jack. At -140 Curtis was a steal, at pick em odds Curtis has to be one of if not the best line of the year. Jack is getting tuned on the feet everytime if he can't take Curtis to the ground and Jack's takedown game is mediocre whereas Curtis has stellar TDD. This is an excellent stylistic matchup for the action man and I cap him at least -300.

Jack has good striking himself. Great in and out movement and good volume.

Curtis lost the first round against Rodolfo. Curtis won the fight but it was competitive. Rodolfo doesn't chain wrestle and his wrestling isn't all that great. Jack is class above.

Jack is known for good cardio and is much more mobile on the feet. Curtis also undersized. Brendan Allen is very inconsistent guy don't think he can be compared to Jack.

 

[rille31]

I really dont understand this money that has been pouring in on Jack. At -140 Curtis was a steal, at pick em odds Curtis has to be one of if not the best line of the year. Jack is getting tuned on the feet everytime if he can't take Curtis to the ground and Jack's takedown game is mediocre whereas Curtis has stellar TDD. This is an excellent stylistic matchup for the action man and I cap him at least -300.

Curtis was a punching before landing a hailmary aganst Plil hayes

He also lost most of the first round striking against a jits guy in Viera

I he doesnt catch Hermanson with something big the striking could look competitive

 

[Hellowhosthat]

How do you guys feel about Herbert/Nelson and Silva/Dalby?

Odds probably about right for me. Nelson hasn't fought in ages and Jai is good. Silva is getting older and used to be prone to gassing when he was young. He's probably first round sub or bust.

 

[Danis_champ]

How do you guys feel about Herbert/Nelson and Silva/Dalby?

probably some value in Silva but wouldn't touch this fight. Silva too old and Dalby too inconsistent. It was really bad look to lose to that bum Ronson. According to stats Silva has taken down every opponent he has faced so far including Leon Edwards.

Herbert close to a lock. Nelson could wrestle but I don't see it working against Herbert. He is brought in to lose.