UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

[TheLastOlympian07]

this , Fiorot is much bigger than Maia and she looks like she is comfortable grappling back, she has a purple belt and is in top tier shape, she looks very strong for this division, i swear she looks like amanda nunes big. Add her outside striking acheivments in kick boxing and karate, her much better technique on the feet. i dont see Maia doing anything here. Fiorot's strikes are more fierce and explosive, she reminds me a little of Holly Holm with the karate side kicks, I think she is the biggest threat to Shevchenko than any other girl.

think the side kicks are going to get her in trouble because they are thrown lazily. sooner or later someone is going to grab her and take her down that way

but on the talk of Maia, her biggest claim to fame is her getting a round of Shev, which is understated how Shevchenko basically fell over for that TD and maia was in top control the rest of the way. It had nothing to do with Maia's takedown ability. If she had any takedown ability she would have used it in either of the CHook fights. what I think anyway

 

[Stat_Collector]

think the side kicks are going to get her in trouble because they are thrown lazily. sooner or later someone is going to grab her and take her down that way

but on the talk of Maia, her biggest claim to fame is her getting a round of Shev, which is understated how Shevchenko basically fell over for that TD and maia was in top control the rest of the way. It had nothing to do with Maia's takedown ability. If she had any takedown ability she would have used it in either of the CHook fights. what I think anyway

Its all timing, its not that easy to grab a leg .i thought about that too, but did she do anything besides sit in guard? She has no real submission threat. Nor do I see her top game being so spectacular, add the final argument , she is coming in on short notice. This is going to be a one sided fight . I’ve seen both of them train, Fiorot hits much harder and it shows in her pad work and her fights.


‘Lazy kick’

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.

 

[Danis_champ]

Saldana is really bad minute winner and he will gas out as usually. Surprising the line is still as tight as it is right now.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Saldana is really bad minute winner and he will gas out as usually. Surprising the line is still as tight as it is right now.

souza is prob even worse than saldana in the minute winner department he doesn't do anything lol, and i'm not sure about saldana gassing out until maybe near end of fight since souza doesn't really pressure or grapple. it's quite the shitshow fight overall

 

[jnes]

Surprised people here are keen on the Latifi vs Oleinik fight. Both guys are so old and passed it. I do favour Latifi slightly but playing him at -170 or higher is outrageous. I'd put him more at -130. Not the kind of guys I want fighting for my money.

 

[matthew55]

Magny + Grasso ML parlay gives me +130, I'm going with that as my main bet.

I think Magny controls Griffin and will be able to take him down and cruise to a decision. Griffin's not some young up and comer, he's 36 and beating limited or shot fighters. Magny been in there with and survived better. Speaking of shot, Calderwood doesn't seem to have much left in the tank. She got absolutely battered by Santos, and she doesn't have the wrestling to do to Grasso what Esparza and Suarez did.

Going to do a smaller three-prop parlay bet with individual bets on each one. If one hits, I cover the whole bet.

Grasso by KO/SUB (+600)
Souza by D (+200)
Rosa by KO/SUB (+250)
Total parlay odds +7250

Least confident in the Rosa bet, I bet on her to finish against Correia and lost there which was rough. McMann could definitely wrestle Rosa to a decision, but she has a way of losing fights and she's getting up there at 41. Grasso isn't a finisher, but neither was Santos (at least in the UFC) before she was rocking Calderwood.

Edit: thinking on it, I'm subbing in Guttierez by UD (+240) over the Rosa to finish bet

I bet Rosa to finish Bethe too and she could've if she just let go a little more. She would throw a little flurry, batter her, then back up, super frustrating. Went back to the well this time lol, McMann is pretty flakey

 

[TeamVamos]

souza is prob even worse than saldana in the minute winner department he doesn't do anything lol, and i'm not sure about saldana gassing out until maybe near end of fight since souza doesn't really pressure or grapple. it's quite the shitshow fight overall

Souza definitely won't be bringing the pressure nor the heat that Lingo brought. Sitting back and letting Saldana gauge distance to pick you apart isn't a good game plan. I can see Saldana leg kicking Souza at will from both stances. Issue with Saldana is he tries to make everything look too pretty versus actually winning. He was toying with Lingo at times and forgot it was a close fight.

 

[xhaydenx]

What do you think her pathway to victory is? She is 100% getting pieced on the feet, she isn't much of a wrestler, and she is definitely the inferior athlete. You shouldn't assume that Fiorot is a bad grappler just because she mostly strikes, she has shown to even go for her own takedowns before against other grapplers and held her own. Maybe Fiorot's fight IQ isn't the greatest but she doesn't need to have one because her pathway to victory is so simple and has proven to be her natural way of fighting.

Bit late, but I'd be very surprised if Maia is dumb enough to not barrel forward with strikes and look to clinch up. Maia is strong in the clinch. She was able to control Shev for a whole round.

Maia has lost too many fights due to just sitting back. She has to know this is exactly what's coming out of Manon.

 

[Oblivian]

Does anyone think Askarov gets back to his finishing ways here? I'm eyeing the ITD line as Kai can always land something big. Askar has had a hell of a lineup. He was very close to putting Elliott out, but the rest are not easy to finish. I'm thinking at some point Kai is going to have to take a risk if Askarov is grinding him out.

 

[2020Tracked]

Does anyone think Askarov gets back to his finishing ways here? I'm eyeing the ITD line as Kai can always land something big. Askar has had a hell of a lineup. He was very close to putting Elliott out, but the rest are not easy to finish. I'm thinking at some point Kai is going to have to take a risk if Askarov is grinding him out.

Take the fight doesn't go the distance and cover the off chance KKF lands the KO

 

[Oblivian]

Take the fight doesn't go the distance and cover the off chance KKF lands the KO

Yes, that's what I'm looking at exactly. I'm thinking it may be a later finish from Askarov.

 

[mkess101]

Does anyone think Askarov gets back to his finishing ways here? I'm eyeing the ITD line as Kai can always land something big. Askar has had a hell of a lineup. He was very close to putting Elliott out, but the rest are not easy to finish. I'm thinking at some point Kai is going to have to take a risk if Askarov is grinding him out.

Yep I'm on it at +140. Kai is kill or be killed. Granted, he's likely getting taken down here and will be fighting off his back but I think even there he's not gonna be content to just lay there and be controlled the entire fight. Maybe for a round, but after that if he's right back there I think he takes some chances, gives his back trying to get back up, etc. I think it's more likely 50/50 that this sees the cards to +140 works for me.

 

[mkess101]

@Captain Chesapeake

I ditched BAS and signed up on BOL...the interface is about a million times better for sure, and the odds I've looked at are absolutely better. My lone disappointment was not being able to parlay props. It's not a huge deal, but Khizriev sub+Grasso dec was gonna be my main play.

Oh well LOL, I already like it better. Should have switched awhile ago but I'm not trying to make a living doing this so all good.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

@Captain Chesapeake

I ditched BAS and signed up on BOL...the interface is about a million times better for sure, and the odds I've looked at are absolutely better. My lone disappointment was not being able to parlay props. It's not a huge deal, but Khizriev sub+Grasso dec was gonna be my main play.

Oh well LOL, I already like it better. Should have switched awhile ago but I'm not trying to make a living doing this so all good.

Yea I hate not being able to parlay props

bas rarely ever had them available. I haven’t been on their site in months

I’m wondering if books like draftkings, fanduel or betmgm would let you?

 

[mkess101]

Yea I hate not being able to parlay props

bas rarely ever had them available. I haven’t been on their site in months

I’m wondering if books like draftkings, fanduel or betmgm would let you?

Not sure, not legal in my state. I'll be in Vegas end of next month and I'll sign up for betmgm and let you know. I don't think they allow it, but I'm not positive.

 

[JC615]

You can parlay props at Betway. Not the greatest odds though.

 

[The Disasters]

Yea I hate not being able to parlay props

bas rarely ever had them available. I haven’t been on their site in months

I’m wondering if books like draftkings, fanduel or betmgm would let you?

If they do, and if you win a few times, they'll limit you to something like $1.50.

None of the books who will accept large wagers, always pay out, and have good odds will let you parlay props. They would get killed if they did. Betting fight props is my highest roi type of bet, and with the added leverage of a parlay they would lose too much.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Bit late, but I'd be very surprised if Maia is dumb enough to not barrel forward with strikes and look to clinch up. Maia is strong in the clinch. She was able to control Shev for a whole round.

Maia has lost too many fights due to just sitting back. She has to know this is exactly what's coming out of Manon.

She just had a rematch with chook and was dumb enough to not change anything from their first fight and get rekt. You're setting yourself up for disappointment if you expect her to use her brain and come to the cage with gameplans.

 

[Joonc]

If they do, and if you win a few times, they'll limit you to something like $1.50.

None of the books who will accept large wagers, always pay out, and have good odds will let you parlay props. They would get killed if they did. Betting fight props is my highest roi type of bet, and with the added leverage of a parlay they would lose too much.

Bovada is pretty solid and lets you parlay props and lines from separate events. They are very efficient to withdraw and deposit from as well. Also have cash out options, often have live betting, and a nice interface.