UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland - official bets thread
- Thread starter carolinagrapple
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Added
1.2u on Dolidze at -125 after round 2
2u on Dawson at -168 after round 1
5u on Tuivasa ML at -470
-1.95u
Fine with the Dolidze bet; he had a huge advantage simply staying at range leg-kicking and then grappling when Giles closed the distance in round 1 and then ruined it with an idiotic mistake in round 2. Sadly, he didn't have the cardio to continue this in round 3, but STILL got it to a 50/50 decision based on the media and fan scores.
Little salty I didn't get the better -135 live line on Dawson, but my regret is not adding ANOTHER 2u on Dawson at -115 after round 2. I've never put more than 2u on live-bets, but I need to more brave in such obvious value spots.
Speaking of brave, I like my more aggressive Tuivasa play. About time I start making those "underdog has a lottery ticket and little more" spots pay out more, since I've mentioned that I've placed over 50 bets at -300 or more and have yet to lose.
I'm okay with my Song play, too, but I'm wondering if waiting to live-bet Song if he survived round 1 was the better play? Max Griffin is always at his best in round 1 and then slows down considerably. Song was having some early success, but alas, threw a lazy leg kick and then didn't recover fast enough after the initial counter. Oh well. Generally happy with my plays and looking forward to next weekend's PPV.
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Decent night, hedged the Dolidze bet live after rd2 on Giles @ 2.20 and added Yanez by KO late @ 2.10 for about 100 profit.
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Pre bet:
Reduced Bruno action for +62
Renau 250
Griffin RD3/DEC 250
Brunson 150 to win 281
+1,440 = 2.8u No regret on Renau bet, lil regret on Griffin DEC. No regret on tiny Brunson action, I was sweating.
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Not too many spots I like on this card. I might add more to Brunson/Holland starts R3, but we'll see.
Great night for me. +$1000 via betting and DraftKings profit.
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How does draft kings work? If you don't mind explaining
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Decent night. Feels like I had alot more confidence in Brunson than I should have but Holland did almost exactly what I thought he would. Only got a little on Yanez late but anything is better than nothing, that kid has crazy good hands.
Dolidze grappling is great but why in God's name he didn't sweep instead of chasing that heel I'll never know. Roman's cardio looked worse than I expected as well.
Tai might have been value of the card outside of Jackson's props great value on both sides of those fights. Had more on the juicy contender slut than I should have, really didn't think Ruiz could keep that scarf hold for 2.5 rounds.....
Shout out to @PuertoRican you seemed to be one of the few who thought JP's loss could affect Cheyanne. I believe it did she seemed to be fighting less measured and more emotional in my opinion.
●C Buys + Tai
1.6 to win 1u
●Not Holland ISD + Tai -3 1/2
.8u to win 1u
●Brunson, Tai -3 1/2, Marion/ Macy start r3,
Dolidze, Jackson - 3 1/2
.25u to win 2.6u
Prebets -.85u
Live/late action for anyone who cares I posted my late plays in the PBP thread.
Brunson 1u for 2u
Dawson Live during r1 2u for 1u
Yanez + Macy/Marion start r3 .5u for .5u
Total prebets and late/live action +2.65u
That plus 2 units from cage warriors makes this my best weekend since increasing my unit size.
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Hollands conditioning was better than I expected. I thought for sure he would run out of gas in round 4-5.
What happened to Renau? It though she was super easy money given she is more skilled, athletic and experienced than the tall chick.
What happened to Renau? It though she was super easy money given she is more skilled, athletic and experienced than the tall chick.
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Holland spent most of the fight laying on his back doing nothing. Not much of a work rate from him to even burn his cardio. Father time happened to Marion, everyone declines eventually.
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Age, also if you look at it in hind sight, Macy had 4-1 amatuer record bringing her actual mma record to 11-2 vs 9-6
You got to side with the fighter with more consistency w/L ratio. If Marion had a 20+ win like Alexis Davis vs Sabrino Mazo, then it would have looked a lot like that fight, But macy' size, good fight camp and well balance game won her the match.
In the next card I'm going to ignore the favorites underdog bias and go with the best fighters i think will win, I would have picked Macy on another day but was having a tilted moment with my bets.
overall I went 6 of 10 I got Giles and Ruiz ,those were my best calls of the night.
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DraftKings = You are given $50,000 fantasy dollars to use to create a unique team that consists of 6 fighters. Each fighter is usually priced according their betting line, which means you can't just stack your team with every favorite on the card.
It's easier said than done.
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Is it free
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No it ranges from 25 cent lineups all the way up to like 5,000$ lineups
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is there any way of making real money on it? Curious
