UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez

Card

Card

Silver Belt
@Silver
Joined
Jul 11, 2012
Messages
13,576
Reaction score
810
112.jpg
 
how does yair get max after being inactive for so long? hope max has another godly performance. Decent fight to keep Max ticking over til the Volk trilogy, he shouldn't have any issues here
 
Liking Holloway but never paying that price and like the over 3.5 at -140 as the layoff is USADA and Holloway injury, think Lee/calvillo goes over 2.5 but not paying the price and favor Calvillo at plus money but not current odds, Yadong mid and over 2.5 small as he's faster and has power, Moises small as his grappling should dominate even though he doesn't setup his takedowns, probably Casey as Jojua isn't great but never paying the price and over 2.5 small, Baeza is risky but he should have this and like over 1.5 but not at that price so gonna avoid it, like Nzechukwu and the under 2.5 but not liking that fight at all, liking over 2.5 in Daukaus/Dolidze and think there's a little value on Dolidze but no way am I playing it. Gotta listen to the experts like @mkess101 and @TrueAscension and avoid getting greedy with parlays on this card.
 
Jung's ML looks pretty nice given that he's facing an Nzechukwu who's been reliant on a Homer Simpson strategy in his last two, plus the wrestling that Da showed against Knight might aid him in safely controlling the fight as well.

What's everyone's thoughts about Diakiese/Alves? On one hand I could see Rafael getting comforrably outpointed, but on the other, Marc might just check out due to the pressure.
 
Main_Card_MMA said:
Liking Holloway but never paying that price and like the over 3.5 at -140 as the layoff is USADA and Holloway injury, think Lee/calvillo goes over 2.5 but not paying the price and favor Calvillo at plus money but not current odds, Yadong mid and over 2.5 small as he's faster and has power, Moises small as his grappling should dominate even though he doesn't setup his takedowns, probably Casey as Jojua isn't great but never paying the price and over 2.5 small, Baeza is risky but he should have this and like over 1.5 but not at that price so gonna avoid it, like Nzechukwu and the under 2.5 but not liking that fight at all, liking over 2.5 in Daukaus/Dolidze and think there's a little value on Dolidze but no way am I playing it. Gotta listen to the experts like @mkess101 and @TrueAscension and avoid getting greedy with parlays on this card.
Click to expand...

I kinda wonder if Moises just decides to strike with Alvarez? Weird fight. Alvarez wants to grapple, he's about as close to a submission specialist as there is in MMA these days but Moises may be better on the mat anyway. Or at least Moises is more likely to have top position and win rounds while Alvarez fishes for subs that aren't there. But I honestly don't remember anything about Alvarez's striking. Is it crap? Because Moises is serviceable as a striker so maybe he just chooses that path.

-225 though...meh. That doesn't scream value to me.

Calvillo/Lee is a coin toss and is priced correctly imo.

I really wish it wasn't Phillipe fucking Lins that was matched up with OSP. I mean...OSP is literally the EXACT guy you look for to fade the hell out of. Doesn't seem to care, doesn't want to cut ANY weight in the twilight of his career. (See Villante last night). Now in 2 fights in a row OSP has looked disinterested and like he's just waiting to be KO'd. No idea if he's really training much. Absolutely fighting out his contract for the paychecks before he hangs it up. But...ugh...Lins. So far just gunshy from what I've seen, and maybe chinny too. Even still, OSP doesn't feint much and seems to move like molasses these days. Should be a spot for Lins to land at will. The threat is always there for OSP to pull off some zany finish (and again, Lins with that suspect chin), but I still cap Lins closer to -200 here so there's value at -150 imo. The line is where it is possibly due to OSP maybe still having SOME name recognition. The fighter he is now though...not good. At all.
 
Saturday, November 13, 2021
UFC Vegas 42
UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Yair Rodriguez
1:00 PM eastern

Ovince St. Preux is out of his fight against Philipe Lins next week. It is not yet known if Lins will remain on the card against a short-notice replacement opponent.

MMA fighter turned Air Force veteran 29 year old Leah Letson (5-1) (+244 odds vs Felicia Spencer) has returned to the octagon after spending 3 years being sidelined from health issues and serving time with the United States Air Force. Leah Letson last stepped in the octagon in 2018. Letson has had a number of health issues since her last fight due to overtraining and lack of eating during training camps. Letson was training numerous times a day and was only consuming 800 calories a day. As a result, she got very sick and was nearly in organ failure. Not only did Letson suffer a number physical set backs, but as a result from the health issues, Letson also was mentally worn down and was dealing with issues with her mental health. Now Letson has been working with a mental health coach and feels great both physically and mentally.





 
Last edited:
Hellowhosthat said:
I lean the other way, I think Calvillo wrestlefucks her.
Click to expand...
Calvillo is in between weight classes and is able to outgrapple strawweights. I can’t say the same at 125lb. Lee will have the height and reach. I speculate Lee will have a slight edge in physicality.
 
Richard Cruz said:
Calvillo is in between weight classes and is able to outgrapple strawweights. I can’t say the same at 125lb. Lee will have the height and reach. I speculate Lee will have a slight edge in physicality.
Click to expand...

It's not like Roxy is really physical though and she couldn't stop her takedowns.

It might be worth re-watching her Montana De La Rosa fight before making a play, that seems like a reasonable guideline fight for me, although I do feel Calvillo is a better grappler than MDLR. She was able to hold Eye down pretty well who's big for the weight class.
 
Been seeing Daukaus line in the -200s and that pretty much kills any interest I had in it.

I think he should be able to beat Dolidze by virtue of looking to do damage, but Roman holding on to dear life could be enough to get some close scorecards. Rothwell's ML and sub line I'll probably take, De Lima is in that tier of flaky HWs that Ben should demolish even in his old age.
 
Liking Baeza, had a close fight with Ponzinibio. Tall and long for the division with good output. Khaos struggled to get anything going last fight and Baeza starts much faster than Pereira. Gonna put a good size bet on Holloway and Baeza for + odds.
 
mkess101 said:
I kinda wonder if Moises just decides to strike with Alvarez? Weird fight. Alvarez wants to grapple, he's about as close to a submission specialist as there is in MMA these days but Moises may be better on the mat anyway. Or at least Moises is more likely to have top position and win rounds while Alvarez fishes for subs that aren't there. But I honestly don't remember anything about Alvarez's striking. Is it crap? Because Moises is serviceable as a striker so maybe he just chooses that path.

-225 though...meh. That doesn't scream value to me
Click to expand...

Alvarez has reach, but Moises is faster and can go all 3 without gassing. Outside of a hail Mary guillotine, I don't see Alvarez getting a sub against ibjjf champ Moises. His guillotine isn't good enough imo. Moises may get a heel hook on those lanky legs, but it likely goes long. I think Moises beats him everywhere. Not much of a tko threat from either, too.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,113
Messages
55,468,167
Members
174,786
Latest member
plasterby

Share this page

Back
Top