UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez

Thesnake101 said:
Jung's ML looks pretty nice given that he's facing an Nzechukwu who's been reliant on a Homer Simpson strategy in his last two, plus the wrestling that Da showed against Knight might aid him in safely controlling the fight as well.

What's everyone's thoughts about Diakiese/Alves? On one hand I could see Rafael getting comforrably outpointed, but on the other, Marc might just check out due to the pressure.
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Agree on Jung gonna bet him as well. I think Alves subs him rd 2 I will also more then likely be betting alves at dog odds
 
mkess101 said:
I kinda wonder if Moises just decides to strike with Alvarez? Weird fight. Alvarez wants to grapple, he's about as close to a submission specialist as there is in MMA these days but Moises may be better on the mat anyway. Or at least Moises is more likely to have top position and win rounds while Alvarez fishes for subs that aren't there. But I honestly don't remember anything about Alvarez's striking. Is it crap? Because Moises is serviceable as a striker so maybe he just chooses that path.

-225 though...meh. That doesn't scream value to me.

Calvillo/Lee is a coin toss and is priced correctly imo.

I really wish it wasn't Phillipe fucking Lins that was matched up with OSP. I mean...OSP is literally the EXACT guy you look for to fade the hell out of. Doesn't seem to care, doesn't want to cut ANY weight in the twilight of his career. (See Villante last night). Now in 2 fights in a row OSP has looked disinterested and like he's just waiting to be KO'd. No idea if he's really training much. Absolutely fighting out his contract for the paychecks before he hangs it up. But...ugh...Lins. So far just gunshy from what I've seen, and maybe chinny too. Even still, OSP doesn't feint much and seems to move like molasses these days. Should be a spot for Lins to land at will. The threat is always there for OSP to pull off some zany finish (and again, Lins with that suspect chin), but I still cap Lins closer to -200 here so there's value at -150 imo. The line is where it is possibly due to OSP maybe still having SOME name recognition. The fighter he is now though...not good. At all.
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No bet Moises fight. Calvillo EZ MONEY. ST, Preux Lins Under 2.5 EZ MONEY
 
guesswhoseback said:
Agree on Jung gonna bet him as well. I think Alves subs him rd 2 I will also more then likely be betting alves at dog odds
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Yeah, I could see a panic shot from Marc leading to a sub. Need to rewatch Alves vs Ismagulov, but I remember him looking better than most of Damir's opponents there.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Been seeing Daukaus line in the -200s and that pretty much kills any interest I had in it.

I think he should be able to beat Dolidze by virtue of looking to do damage, but Roman holding on to dear life could be enough to get some close scorecards. Rothwell's ML and sub line I'll probably take, De Lima is in that tier of flaky HWs that Ben should demolish even in his old age.
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Take the over in Daukus fight Yea de lima is dog shit Rothwell EZ MONEY
 
Thesnake101 said:
Yeah, I could see a panic shot from Marc leading to a sub. Need to rewatch Alves vs Ismagulov, but I remember him looking better than most of Damir's opponents there.
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More like damir looked bad after returning from a long lay off, and he misses weight by 10lbs or w/e last week. Something wrong with him after the break.
 
Sorry to hijack this thread boys but I don't have enough posts to be able to make a thread.

I was looking at odds for Fight Night on November 20, more precisly Chiesa vs Brady... any idea why Chiesa shouldn't be a huge favorite? Right now his odds are 2.25...
 
Flexstyle said:
Sorry to hijack this thread boys but I don't have enough posts to be able to make a thread.

I was looking at odds for Fight Night on November 20, more precisly Chiesa vs Brady... any idea why Chiesa shouldn't be a huge favorite? Right now his odds are 2.25...
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Brady is legit. Thats a competitive fight either way, if anything I favour Brady.
 
Flexstyle said:
Sorry to hijack this thread boys but I don't have enough posts to be able to make a thread.

I was looking at odds for Fight Night on November 20, more precisly Chiesa vs Brady... any idea why Chiesa shouldn't be a huge favorite? Right now his odds are 2.25...
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Sean is a pretty strong grappler so he could realistically overpower Chiesa in the grappling exchanges. He also has the better striking.

It's one of those legit prospect gets favored over a vet.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Sean is a pretty strong grappler so he could realistically overpower Chiesa in the grappling exchanges. He also has the better striking.

It's one of those legit prospect gets favored over a vet.
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I see what you're saying but I still don't believe that Brady has faced anyone as good as Cheisa...
 
Joon Cha said:
Brady is legit. Thats a competitive fight either way, if anything I favour Brady.
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I'm high on Brady, but I think this is a pretty bad matchup for him.

Brady tends to fade after 7-8 minutes, if Chiesa can get him down late in round 2 or in round 3, he should be able to finish him.

Chiesa is a big WW with solid and relentless grappling, and this is Brady's biggest test to date.

I also love Rothwell here.
 
OSP is out. No biggie for me since I felt his fight was one of the traps for this card.
 
Also keep in mind that Chiesa really looked frozen in his last phone and admitted he could not pull the trigger
 
Initially said:
I'm high on Brady, but I think this is a pretty bad matchup for him.

Brady tends to fade after 7-8 minutes, if Chiesa can get him down late in round 2 or in round 3, he should be able to finish him.

Chiesa is a big WW with solid and relentless grappling, and this is Brady's biggest test to date.

I also love Rothwell here.
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Brady is bloody strong, if they get into grappling exchanges I can easily see him submitting Chiesa the same way Luque did. Either way, I think it's a competitive fight, Chiesa is definitely the biggest test of his career so far.
 
Joon Cha said:
Brady is bloody strong, if they get into grappling exchanges I can easily see him submitting Chiesa the same way Luque did. Either way, I think it's a competitive fight, Chiesa is definitely the biggest test of his career so far.
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Chiesa is a big, strong WW with great top pressure. His huge flaw is if he gets too aggressive in trying to advance position or look for the sub when it's not there like vs Luque. Not sure what that means vs Brady honestly. Brady seems kinda similar in his grappling.
 
Joon Cha said:
Brady is bloody strong, if they get into grappling exchanges I can easily see him submitting Chiesa the same way Luque did. Either way, I think it's a competitive fight, Chiesa is definitely the biggest test of his career so far.
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It's possible. Brady rd3 vs Daukaus scares me off of him in this matchup though.

We saw Chiesa go 5 hard rounds against Magny, who is no easy out.

The TDs won't come as easy for Chiesa in this matchup, but we've seen Chiesa grapple at an elite level while fatigued, meanwhile we've seen Brady look like a corpse in the 3rd versus Daukaus.

If Chiesa gets up to +150 or so, I'll be on him pretty big.
 
Initially said:
It's possible. Brady rd3 vs Daukaus scares me off of him in this matchup though.

We saw Chiesa go 5 hard rounds against Magny, who is no easy out.

The TDs won't come as easy for Chiesa in this matchup, but we've seen Chiesa grapple at an elite level while fatigued, meanwhile we've seen Brady look like a corpse in the 3rd versus Daukaus.

If Chiesa gets up to +150 or so, I'll be on him pretty big.
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Are you talking about Brady against Mcgee? Brady has never fought Daukaus.
 
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