UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

Alen might be a decent enough shout, Holmes looked like dog shit against Pickett. Not at all ready for the UFC (not that Amedovski is much better), Alen might go back to KOing fools in this one.
 
Now I now this saying is overused a lot but this may be the worst card of all-time. I’m literally interested in nothing besides the main event.
 
StewDogg11 said:
Now I now this saying is overused a lot but this may be the worst card of all-time. I’m literally interested in nothing besides the main event.
Click to expand...
that's interesting because I am interested in every fight on this card, minus the main event
 
Cant do anymore daily fantasy here.
I will likely continue to bet from now on until DFS gets back.
 
StewDogg11 said:
Now I now this saying is overused a lot but this may be the worst card of all-time. I’m literally interested in nothing besides the main event.
Click to expand...
There are couple of good fight fighters on this card, i will likely not bet the main event. Its a bit of coin flip.
 
I would bet big on Holm decision, but hard to trust a 40 year old woman coming off a long lay off.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
There are couple of good fight fighters on this card, i will likely not bet the main event. Its a bit of coin flip.
Click to expand...
You are gonna put half of your savings on Vieira? Incredible value!
 
Broe. said:
You are gonna put half of your savings on Vieira? Incredible value!
Click to expand...
Small sparkle on both sides. And not my whole savings lol.

Let alone on the Women's MMA fight matches. Personally though the main event is a coin toss due to some red flags for Holm and such...

It seems like a fade for me personally on the betting side but i wouldn't mind a small bet on it.

The underdog bet makes sense here if the same Holm doesn't come out next week's fight card.
I am usually not the one that goes around and bets around certain narratives...
 
Leans.JPG


Leans %
Only Chidi and Holly will get majority exposure.

small sprinkle on Jonathan, Jailton(Itd) , Alen, Polyana, Michel.
passing on the rest.
 
Last edited:
Stat_Collector said:
View attachment 923468

Leans %
Only Chidi and Holly will get majority exposure.

small sprinkle on Jonathan, Jailton(Itd) , Alen, Polyana, Michel.
passing on the rest.
Click to expand...
For 2021 and 2022 so far, I can count on one hand the number of fighters I've ever made fair odds of 70%+. At least one against Conor, and then some other complete mismatches between lower level fighters, including Rodolfo Vieira when he lost.

95% between two decision machines, with these judges?
90% on a guy moving up to heavyweight?

Be careful giving that much weight to anyone in an MMA fight.
 
The Disasters said:
For 2021 and 2022 so far, I can count on one hand the number of fighters I've ever made fair odds of 70%+. At least one against Conor, and then some other complete mismatches between lower level fighters, including Rodolfo Vieira when he lost.

95% between two decision machines, with these judges?
90% on a guy moving up to heavyweight?

Be careful giving that much weight to anyone in an MMA fight.
Click to expand...

Excellent post. MMA has so many variables and so much can happen, injuries, cuts, bad judges, bad refs in the cage, layoffs, fighters that have evolved etc.

Like the Holm situation is the type of situation where yeah she should roll and win fairly easily, but the layoff, the age, the pull outs due to injuries already are some red flags, and you probably dont want too many red flags when you´re already playing a -250 -225 ish fighter.
 
The Disasters said:
For 2021 and 2022 so far, I can count on one hand the number of fighters I've ever made fair odds of 70%+. At least one against Conor, and then some other complete mismatches between lower level fighters, including Rodolfo Vieira when he lost.

95% between two decision machines, with these judges?
90% on a guy moving up to heavyweight?

Be careful giving that much weight to anyone in an MMA fight.
Click to expand...
Holly by a mile , the five round experience. the sharper striking, i think she beats her everywhere including the grappling. The only perk Viera has is youth. She’d have to drop the ball massively to lose this fight.

Lets face it. Jailton is a much better athlete all around than Parker Porter. One of the things i always do when watching fights is i ask myself ‘ how would both of these guys do if you swap their last 3 opponents’

Jailton would have beaten Boudot , Sherman , and Parison in much more convincing fashion. I don’t think Jailton plans on staying in hw. looks like he just took the fight because he knows Porter is no match. Parker himself was a lhw who fought jon jones. most of his body weight is fat more than anything, nothing about his size suggest he’s a natural hw.

I’m not doing crazy wagers like before with 1k bets. these are smaller bets. 200$ on holly and chidi and 150$ in small sprinkle parlays blended with 70% with 90% lean. and one 25% parlay with Medic in the mix.


the only way for my night to fail would be for chidi and holly to lose. Jailton odds are to inflated for me. i have one itd in a parlay but thats it, so im treating him like my 70% lean.
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
Excellent post. MMA has so many variables and so much can happen, injuries, cuts, bad judges, bad refs in the cage, layoffs, fighters that have evolved etc.

Like the Holm situation is the type of situation where yeah she should roll and win fairly easily, but the layoff, the age, the pull outs due to injuries already are some red flags, and you probably dont want too many red flags when you´re already playing a -250 -225 ish fighter.
Click to expand...
If i had to pass on every fight that had the risk you named above, i would never bet. Because those things can happen in any fight. you guys are fixated too much on the risk and focusing on odds, but the key here is to not over expose your whole bank row on one fight. How you expose your weekly budget is the key. i can lose all my wages, but 9 of 10 times my leans that are at 90% hit every time. i would say if anything my biggest gift in betting is spotting mismatches. im not at all worried about losing. we’re gambling here, its what i sign up for. but playing it safe each week doesn’t do me anything because im missing out on fights when i can be earning a buck off their hard work.
 
I see the logic on being cautious with Holm but, come on, are we really going to act like Almeida isn't going to absolutely wreck Porter?

What's Porter's path to victory here? He's a 37 year old 6'0 heavyweight who had to win via decision over a who's who of punching bag heavy weights (Baudot, Parisian, and Sherman). I have a hard time thinking there's even a 10% chance of him catching Almeida on the chin and putting him out before he gets dragged down and massacred. Plus any worry about Almeida moving up a division seems misplaced given that he's a 6'3, 79" reach, 30 year old stack of muscles at LHW known for tossing bodies.

I wouldn't tell anyone to bet on him at -600 or anything, but if you're looking for mismatches you've got one here.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,125
Messages
55,468,626
Members
174,787
Latest member
Biden's Diaper

Share this page

Back
Top