UFC Fight Night: Lewis v Oleinik

I like Stoliarenko here. I remember her from the ultimate fighter 2 years ago. Since than it seems like she improved a lot by winning 5 straight and becoming Invicta champion.

Yana is in honey moon phase and I'm not sure how seriously she has been training for this fight.

I think public will continue to place money on Yana and odds on Julia will be even more juicer by Saturday.
 
Yana is a great grappler she has won most her fights like that. And she is big too
 
I see Stoliarenko x Marciea Allen on Tuf and shes terrible stand, very hitable and just some ground game. Shes short notice, less 10 days. Yana is going to kill her. About Yana shes not was pregnant, was joke.
 
What does everyone see in Darren Stewart?

Kind of feels like everyone is overreacting to the Maki Pitolo v Callan Potter fight. Pretty clear case of UFC jitters + going in with the belief his opponent was a can with pillow fists and a failure to adjust

Darren Stewart isn't anything special anywhere (he has takedowns against gassed opponents, but they're nowhere near Potter's level - for as much of a meme as he is, Potter is pretty decent on the ground), feels to me like a pick 'em
 
BetVictor really fucking me off. It's almost like they use me as a gauge to lower odds on fights. They have odds up then when I make a bet it starts loading and they say 'sorry we can't place your bet as the odds have been changed, would you like to bet with new odds'. They have done this several times to me in the past year.

Anyway, I taped Weidman / Omari and I feel this is clearly a fight set up to get Weidman back into the winning column.

Omari is a Sambo champion but he isn't great at securing takedowns so this is likely to be a striking match. He has basic striking, he never really throws combos, but instead always throws a jab followed by an overhand right or just tries to counter with overhand rights (he actually did this pretty well against Heinisch). He doesn't have one-punch KO power, he couldn't even hurt an ancient Tim Boetsch after breaking his nose in rd 1 so there is low risk for the KO and lastly, his stamina is pretty bad and he never pushes a high pace so Weidman should be able to reserve his gas tank.

Now the fear is Weidman's IQ and glass chin, Weidman hasn't changed his approach at all since USADA, he fights like he has the cardio of a Diaz brother then gasses and ends up getting KO'd, going headfirst into a strike he clearly could have avoided. But the fighters taking advantage of this are top-tier level strikers, something Omari most certainly isn't. So unless Weidman is completely shot and leaves his chin open for the counter right (actually something I fear happening) this should be a very winnable fight and if not... off to Bellator.
 
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Tirimasuperman said:
What does everyone see in Darren Stewart?

Kind of feels like everyone is overreacting to the Maki Pitolo v Callan Potter fight. Pretty clear case of UFC jitters + going in with the belief his opponent was a can with pillow fists and a failure to adjust

Darren Stewart isn't anything special anywhere (he has takedowns against gassed opponents, but they're nowhere near Potter's level - for as much of a meme as he is, Potter is pretty decent on the ground), feels to me like a pick 'em
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Its just a good marchup for stewart. He is bigger and pittolo wont make him wrestle (his biggest weakness)
 
Broe. said:
Its just a good marchup for stewart. He is bigger and pittolo wont make him wrestle (his biggest weakness)
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I don't disagree with any of that, but I just don't see what's so special about Darren Stewart's striking. He was losing the striking on the feet against Julian Marquez after all, dude turned him into a wrestler early

If it comes down to striker v striker and the two are pretty evenly matched on the feet then the play is the dog, no?
 
Tirimasuperman said:
I don't disagree with any of that, but I just don't see what's so special about Darren Stewart's striking. He was losing the striking on the feet against Julian Marquez after all, dude turned him into a wrestler early

If it comes down to striker v striker and the two are pretty evenly matched on the feet then the play is the dog, no?
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I got stewart at 1.7. I think just the size difference will be the difference here. I wouldnt advocate a play on stewart at 1.5
 
Tirimasuperman said:
I don't disagree with any of that, but I just don't see what's so special about Darren Stewart's striking. He was losing the striking on the feet against Julian Marquez after all, dude turned him into a wrestler early

If it comes down to striker v striker and the two are pretty evenly matched on the feet then the play is the dog, no?
Click to expand...

Darren Stewart's improved a LOT over the past couple years. He used to be straight up bad with zero fight iq. I remember when Francimar Barroso of all people was free money against him. I wouldn't compare a 2017 Marquez fight with him now.

That being said, he hasn't turned into a world beater. He's just a decent striker. So I think Pitolo's worth a play here unless there's good reasons to fade him.
 
benebox said:
Anyway, I taped Weidman / Omari and I feel this is clearly a fight set up to get Weidman back into the winning column.

Omari is a Sambo champion but he isn't great at securing takedowns so this is likely to be a striking match. He has basic striking, he never really throws combos, but instead always throws a jab followed by an overhand right or just tries to counter with overhand rights (he actually did this pretty well against Heinisch). He doesn't have one-punch KO power, he couldn't even hurt an ancient Tim Boetsch after breaking his nose in rd 1 so there is low risk for the KO and lastly, his stamina is pretty bad and he never pushes a high pace so Weidman should be able to reserve his gas tank.

Now the fear is Weidman's IQ and glass chin, Weidman hasn't changed his approach at all since USADA, he fights like he has the cardio of a Diaz brother then gasses and ends up getting KO'd, going headfirst into a strike he clearly could have avoided. But the fighters taking advantage of this are top-tier level strikers, something Omari most certainly isn't. So unless Weidman is completely shot and leaves his chin open for the counter right (actually something I fear happening) this should be a very winnable fight and if not... off to Bellator.
Click to expand...

You're missing one major factor, Weidman hitting his own TDs
 
Tirimasuperman said:
What does everyone see in Darren Stewart?

Kind of feels like everyone is overreacting to the Maki Pitolo v Callan Potter fight. Pretty clear case of UFC jitters + going in with the belief his opponent was a can with pillow fists and a failure to adjust

Darren Stewart isn't anything special anywhere (he has takedowns against gassed opponents, but they're nowhere near Potter's level - for as much of a meme as he is, Potter is pretty decent on the ground), feels to me like a pick 'em
Click to expand...

Personally just waiting for the best price on Pitolo, I think it's a 50/50 striking match if Stewart gets the fight he wants and if he doesn't get the fight he wants he ends up spending long periods battling in the clinch, as always.

Could be a KO either way, and Pitolo's chin is the more questionable of the two but it's a risk I'd be willing to take.
 
Sadistics said:
You're missing one major factor, Weidman hitting his own TDs
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Which is something I am banking on, I think Omari has pretty good take doen defence but Wideman also has pretty good taekdowns and if it hits the mat and Wideman is on top I think Omari is fucked from there.

Round one is going to be a sweat, Omari does throw some heat, but I hope Chris fights smart and doesn't try and be K1 Chris, focus the gameplan around the takedown and the win is there
 
Broe. said:
I dont think Munoz' wrestling is good enough for it, he is no Marcin Held, the guy is 6-0 he is very raw.
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You kidding me right?? Munoz has extremely good MMA wrestling LOL. I'm seriously considering taking him for the upset, but will look a tiny bit more into the analytics before.
 
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