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Why is Joel Alverez getting bet down, he's not good
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green
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Cause people think he is good?
+250 was great for me. But what do I know? I lose like 2000 units a month and stuff betting on Johnny walker to not get kod
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joel Alvarez put an ass whooping on Moises in his last fight
6”3 lightweight if he keeps improving he will be a problem for anyone in the division
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He looked pretty damn good running through Thiago Moises. And not a fluke one punch KO. He walked him down and pieced him up, made Moises look like a regional bum. The same Moises who beat (albeit probably by robbery) an excellent fighter in Bobby Greene and who lasted into Rd 4 with Islam.
Alvarez is huge, has power, and is dangerous as hell with his subs. Not saying Tsarukyan shouldn't be favored but I got Alvarez at +235 which is ridiculous.
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I mean, any of you actually watched the tape? What has Alverez shown outside of the Moises fight? Finding guard subs and guillys?
Armen wins the fight everywhere and this will not be competitive, but please keep betting Alverez so I can get -200 on Armen
Armen wins the fight everywhere and this will not be competitive, but please keep betting Alverez so I can get -200 on Armen
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Well I can't tell, you say stuff that most people here would think it's true if I didn't rebuttal because it could sound believable that's all, no problem then if you're jk
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More props are out, Makhachev / Green is set at over 1.5 rounds -125 & under at -105. I think the over is probably a pretty good bet at those odds, Makhachev probably will win by sub as expected but I think it'll take some time for him to get it.
https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-fight-night-203-2343
https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-fight-night-203-2343
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I think there is something to be said about Joel getting Moises out of there faster than Islam, Arman is good but he is a decision machine, Joel has size and good finishes. I'm not going to bother taping the fight because I think this is a pick em' or at least a competitive fight between the two. These Russian style fighters are always vulnerable to bjj black belts who have good scrambled and defensive grappling. I think if you bet on either one be prepared to lose it
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Well I'm gonna give more relevance to young fighter's most recent performance. He looked dominant in every way vs a pretty good fighter. And yes he hits subs off his back, but obviously given how much he's done it he's pretty dangerous even there.
A super dangerous finisher who's +235 and who's coming off by far his most impressive win...so yeah I'm good with that value.
And yes Tsarukyan is excellent and yes I probably favor him.
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Kinda shocked they set it at over 1.5 instead of over 2.5 to be honest. I'm on it. Islam will most likely need some time to break Bobby down and historically Bobby has not been a huge early ko threat, his hands just aren't that heavy.
2/26/2022 11:30 PM UFC Fighting 1001 Bobby Green/Islam Makhachev* Over 1½ -125
Risking $125.00 To Win $100.00
2/26/2022 11:30 PM UFC Fighting 1001 Bobby Green/Islam Makhachev* Over 1½ -135
Risking $135.00 To Win $100.00
2/26/2022 11:30 PM UFC Fighting 1001 Bobby Green/Islam Makhachev* Over 1½ -135
Risking $135.00 To Win $100.00
2/26/2022 6:30 PM UFC Fighting 2001 Micheal Gillmore/Ramiz Brahimaj* Under 2½ -130
Risking $130.00 To Win $100.00
2/26/2022 6:30 PM UFC Fighting 2001 Micheal Gillmore/Ramiz Brahimaj* Under 2½ -130
Risking $130.00 To Win $100.00
2/26/2022 6:30 PM UFC Fighting 2001 Micheal Gillmore/Ramiz Brahimaj* Under 2½ -140
Risking $140.00 To Win $100.00
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Nice bets, wish I could've hit it early on the books I use. bodog / bovada already has it at 2.5 rounds now, look like over 1.5 has moved a bit since I made my original post
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I have 0 motivation to do 2c on this card, but I will do it anyway just in case it helps me or others to get some good leans:
Hernandez/Victor: Close fight, I like Hernandez's game, he is good everywhere. If I had to pick a flaw it's that he isn't very physical and can be taken down, but he is a great scrambler. He has a lot of rear-naked chokes on his record and was hunting for one on contender. Mixes it up with striking, has great volume and cardio and fights for your money. Victor has good cardio and will fight for your money too, but he has a big hole in his TDD. He is also very kicks-heavy and his hands are super low while he uses head movement to defend. I can see this fight being close even if Hernandez wrestles, Victor has a habit of winning rounds off the bottom with strikes and finishing rounds strong when he gets up. I see the line as Hernandez as a slight fav, not sure how much value is there.
Brahimaj/Gilmore: Brahimaj sub or pass, easy breakdown. Round 1 is juicy but he has one sub in round 2 and he got Courts back in the second in his last fight. Potentially Brahimaj in rounds 1 or 2 if odds are better than sub. He is a flake so hopefully don't have to tell you about staying away from the ML.
Perez/Martinez: Martinez will look to stick and move here for 3 and stuff the takedowns. I can see this being a closer fight than odds indicate, Perez is serviceable everywhere and has great cardio. He is also a weasel and can get decisions when clearly losing. Odds are filthy on Martinez, and I hate betting Perez. Potential live bet spot if it's close and the bookies think Martinez is up and we get big dog odds on the weasel.
Frey/Goldy: Lean here was Frey by DEC as the better fighter. But she is low volume enough to let Goldy into the fight. She almost did it with Yoder in one of the rounds when she froze. Pass.
Nunes/Pascual: Murder by Nunes once again. Pascaul is a soccer mom, and all her wins are over soccer moms. She needs to grapple and her wrestling is horrendous. Worst case Nunes spends a bit of time on the ground and then gets up and murks her. She carries her power and aggression late. The fight being at FW means nothing, Nunes has wins there and even at LW. She also has a longer reach than Pascual. Nunes by finish is my safe play, she loves dropping down for a guillotine.
Ignacio/Zhu: Bit of value on Zhu, I hit his early line for a sprinkle. Ignacio is a beast as well and very young, he mixes it up well, and his cardio and volume are insane. There is something missing though, on regionals he has a lot of close standup fights despite being a kickboxer. He gets backed up and is a bit hittable despite his reach. I have questions about his chin as well from that Makdessi fight, maybe it's from cutting down to LW. Zhu is a bit low volume, he's a counter puncher and likes to grow into the fight after getting reads. Obviously, that's a problem here against Ignacio who will come out throwing straight away, but Zhu has big power, you can see it in his GNP. The proper definition of heavy hands. He also has decent wrestling and control which I forgot about until tape. Zhu has left China 2 fights ago, this is his second camp at AKA. I expect a ton of improvements at his age, and more importantly, being more comfortable in the UFC. I'm hoping Zhu can keep this much closer than the odds with some big power shots and counters. His shots should be more eye-catching to the judges, all depends on his volume. If he chooses to wrestle even better. Even Roberts busted up Ignacio with his jab despite being dominated for 3 rounds.
Rodrigues/Armen: Throwing Armen to the wolves here. Another fight where is going to be taken down and controlled. Rodrigues is a different animal when it comes to Jits though, a back take is live here is Armen hasn't improved the get-up game. He always gives up his back to stand so it's hard to sit him down and control him, some of the fighters on regionals even got seatbelt control. He is dropping down to MW so he won't be undersized anymore. Rodrigues also hits like a truck and has a huge reach, Armen has been sparked in his one and only loss, by a beast fighter though. He has actually fought a lot of good competition on the Russian scene. Easy fight to breakdown, in my opinion. Rodrigues has success early and he subs or controls Armen, if he can't get a finish he gets sparked by a much faster striker who throws in combinations to finish. Rodrigues is chinny, gass and slow, if he gets stuck against the cage like in his last fight, he ain't surviving that blitz. I sprinkled Armens early odds, I had to with that cardio and KO upside. The under is a decent hedge.
Hernandez/Victor: Close fight, I like Hernandez's game, he is good everywhere. If I had to pick a flaw it's that he isn't very physical and can be taken down, but he is a great scrambler. He has a lot of rear-naked chokes on his record and was hunting for one on contender. Mixes it up with striking, has great volume and cardio and fights for your money. Victor has good cardio and will fight for your money too, but he has a big hole in his TDD. He is also very kicks-heavy and his hands are super low while he uses head movement to defend. I can see this fight being close even if Hernandez wrestles, Victor has a habit of winning rounds off the bottom with strikes and finishing rounds strong when he gets up. I see the line as Hernandez as a slight fav, not sure how much value is there.
Brahimaj/Gilmore: Brahimaj sub or pass, easy breakdown. Round 1 is juicy but he has one sub in round 2 and he got Courts back in the second in his last fight. Potentially Brahimaj in rounds 1 or 2 if odds are better than sub. He is a flake so hopefully don't have to tell you about staying away from the ML.
Perez/Martinez: Martinez will look to stick and move here for 3 and stuff the takedowns. I can see this being a closer fight than odds indicate, Perez is serviceable everywhere and has great cardio. He is also a weasel and can get decisions when clearly losing. Odds are filthy on Martinez, and I hate betting Perez. Potential live bet spot if it's close and the bookies think Martinez is up and we get big dog odds on the weasel.
Frey/Goldy: Lean here was Frey by DEC as the better fighter. But she is low volume enough to let Goldy into the fight. She almost did it with Yoder in one of the rounds when she froze. Pass.
Nunes/Pascual: Murder by Nunes once again. Pascaul is a soccer mom, and all her wins are over soccer moms. She needs to grapple and her wrestling is horrendous. Worst case Nunes spends a bit of time on the ground and then gets up and murks her. She carries her power and aggression late. The fight being at FW means nothing, Nunes has wins there and even at LW. She also has a longer reach than Pascual. Nunes by finish is my safe play, she loves dropping down for a guillotine.
Ignacio/Zhu: Bit of value on Zhu, I hit his early line for a sprinkle. Ignacio is a beast as well and very young, he mixes it up well, and his cardio and volume are insane. There is something missing though, on regionals he has a lot of close standup fights despite being a kickboxer. He gets backed up and is a bit hittable despite his reach. I have questions about his chin as well from that Makdessi fight, maybe it's from cutting down to LW. Zhu is a bit low volume, he's a counter puncher and likes to grow into the fight after getting reads. Obviously, that's a problem here against Ignacio who will come out throwing straight away, but Zhu has big power, you can see it in his GNP. The proper definition of heavy hands. He also has decent wrestling and control which I forgot about until tape. Zhu has left China 2 fights ago, this is his second camp at AKA. I expect a ton of improvements at his age, and more importantly, being more comfortable in the UFC. I'm hoping Zhu can keep this much closer than the odds with some big power shots and counters. His shots should be more eye-catching to the judges, all depends on his volume. If he chooses to wrestle even better. Even Roberts busted up Ignacio with his jab despite being dominated for 3 rounds.
Rodrigues/Armen: Throwing Armen to the wolves here. Another fight where is going to be taken down and controlled. Rodrigues is a different animal when it comes to Jits though, a back take is live here is Armen hasn't improved the get-up game. He always gives up his back to stand so it's hard to sit him down and control him, some of the fighters on regionals even got seatbelt control. He is dropping down to MW so he won't be undersized anymore. Rodrigues also hits like a truck and has a huge reach, Armen has been sparked in his one and only loss, by a beast fighter though. He has actually fought a lot of good competition on the Russian scene. Easy fight to breakdown, in my opinion. Rodrigues has success early and he subs or controls Armen, if he can't get a finish he gets sparked by a much faster striker who throws in combinations to finish. Rodrigues is chinny, gass and slow, if he gets stuck against the cage like in his last fight, he ain't surviving that blitz. I sprinkled Armens early odds, I had to with that cardio and KO upside. The under is a decent hedge.
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Were you able to find pascuals last fight in invicta? I found a choppy breakdown video of it. It think she’s improving at syndicate but it somewhat hard to tell with the limited footage.
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Isn't Green too good to be +550...EVEN against Islam? Yes he should probably get ragdolled but the line seems way too wide to me given Dariush was only around +300. At least Green has a massive speed edge standing and will conceivably have a few chances to catch Islam at the beginning of rounds. What exactly was Beneil's PTV? He sure as hell wasn't outgrappling Islam, and he wouldn't have had nearly the speed/striking edge.
IDK...it's hard to bet against a next level grappler like Islam but MMA is a weird sport and Green isn't some scrub.
IDK...it's hard to bet against a next level grappler like Islam but MMA is a weird sport and Green isn't some scrub.
I think you overrate Green a little. Dariush had a chance of catching Islam with a sub or some unorthodox strike. Green just has no pathway to victory in this fight and betting on him is equivalent to just buying a scratch ticket. You'll probably have better odds winning money from a scratch ticket IMO.
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Maybe. So many fights over the years I've seen that said about, most recently Nunes/Pena. And as great as Islam is...we saw him KO'd by a guy without huge power before (basically the one time we've seen him hit cleanly). Green's speed and hands are LEVELS above a guy like Adriano Martins. So yeah, there's a PTV here. Now, I will say a lot of that depends on Islam himself. He's shown, at times, that he will stand for awhile before going to his grappling. Green would need for Islam to do that here in order to have any sort of realistic shot. But Islam (for as brilliant a grappler as he is) probably overrates his own striking a bit. So it's not super hard to imagine him trying to "test" his striking vs Green and paying the price.
Let's be clear, I heavily favor Islam. But I give Green a lot better chance than I gave Dariush based purely on styles. So if Dariush was priced even CLOSE to correctly at +300ish, Green at +550 has some value. To me, Dariush +550 and Green +300 to +400 makes way more sense.
Imo Dariush had a better chance of finishing Islam because of better instincts and broader skillset, but yeah thats fair, I guess I undersold Greene's chances myself. I just have a lot of faith in these Russian fighters they are fighting machines. Their bodies are made of iron and their wills forged with steel. They will never flake in a fight like Nunes did.
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Oh Islam won't fold like Nunes did or gas. But we've seen he doesn't have that granite chin that Khabib did. Green won't outpoint him over 5 rounds either, because if Islam is getting peppered standing he's gonna take Bobby down. Green's only shot is to actually hurt Islam standing. If I hadn't seen Martins do it once already, I'd likely think this line was more justified (hell maybe even steeper would be). But already seeing that Islam's chin can be cracked...he needs to go to his grappling immediately. No messing around standing.
