Had zero bets of any kind last week, pre or live, so this one is already more active, although late cancellations/reschedules robbed me of several bigger plays;
1u on Griffin by decision at +160
1u on de Lima at +275
0.5u on de Lima at +400
Added
1.6u on Yan Xiaonan at -125
2.35u on Santos at -235
Leaving me with a -3.5u night, my first loss in a while.
Totally fine with how I played the Griffin fight. Between the Griffin points prop and his ML, there was an implied odds of 20% for a Griffin finish. I thought it was probably in the 5-10% range. Is a freak ear injury included in the 5-10% range? I think so. I don't think the Griffin ML was that great; there was a lot of uncertainty about how improved his opponent was, and he was actually very competitive in the striking, which I didn't expect, until Griffin scored on a very timely crotch kick.
Ditto for de Lima; he had his chances and landed, and would have had more chances if he didn't get choked out from a freaking forearm choke.
Mild regret over not playing Giles, who I told a few people I liked. Was scared off by his heart condition and possible success for Bevon Lewis in the clinch.
Stronger regret over not going harder than 1.6u on that gift of a line for Yan.
I don't know what to think of my ML bet. Santos had as gigantic of an advantage in the striking as I expected and came close to knocking out Glover twice. But as with Bandejas-Higa, I totally misjudged the grappling.
Was part of that from Santos' reconstructive knee surgery not being all that successful? I think so.
Anywho, on to next week. I'll try to focus more on MMA instead of tennis betting for a change, heh.
